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Unlike most positions, there’s no true consensus RB1 in dynasty fantasy football. That’s because it seems like there’s a new top dog almost every year. Running back is the most volatile position in the NFL due to their short shelf life and injury risk. We’ve seen a swing in the dynasty community as people are starting to realize it’s a much safer bet to invest in wide receivers instead.
Even so, the running back position is crucial for your fantasy team. If you’re left without a true RB1, your odds of winning a championship drop drastically. With all this in mind, let’s look at a few options before determining who the RB1 in dynasty fantasy football should be.
Jahmyr Gibbs
Let’s start with the player I believe will be the consensus RB1 in a month, Jahmyr Gibbs. Right now, Gibbs is the RB3 on KTC, but with all the Lions buzz going on, I believe he’s very close to the RB1. With the Lions winning their first playoff game, Gibbs will have a chance to play in at least two nationally televised games.
The players who show out on the big stage always get hyped up in the dynasty community. If the Lions can continue their Super Bowl run, there’s no doubt in my mind that Gibbs will be the consensus RB1 by the end.
JAHMYR GIBBS!
The blocking by the #Lions OL on this TD! ? pic.twitter.com/1gT1mD5J4O
Despite having an unbelievable season, scoring 16.2 PPG, Gibbs is my RB2. Many people are still underestimating 26-year-old David Montgomery, whom the Lions signed to a three-year, 18 million dollar contract. After being paid that kind of money, Montgomery will have a feature role in the Lions offense for quite a few years. We just saw Montgomery (14) have six more carries than Gibbs (8) against the Rams.
One more thing that worries me about Gibbs is his size. Standing at 5’9” 200 lbs, Gibbs doesn’t have the ideal BMI for a red zone or three-down back. Although he saw more opportunity down the stretch, I question if that’s from improvement on his end or the lingering effect of Montgomery’s injury. Overall, Gibbs is an unbelievable player due to his pass-catching ability, and he’s currently my RB2.
Bijan Robinson
Bijan Robinson is the RB1 on KTC, which is where I have him ranked as well. No matter how you look at things, Robinson has never dropped below the RB2 since coming into the NFL. As a prospect, Robinson checked every box you could want, including amazing draft capital. With a BMI of 30, Robinson has shown he has the size to be a three-down back in the NFL for quite some time.
Now, I could go on and on about how bad Arthur Smith is, but luckily, he’s gone. There’s no logical explanation for why Robinson should only have 28 more carries than Tyler Allgeier. I understand that Allgeier had a promising rookie season, but he’s a fifth-round pick who was never a great prospect. The flaws in his game came to light this year as he averaged 3.7 YPC.
As a rookie, Robinson had an up-and-down season from a fantasy lens but still ended the year averaging 14.5 PPG. With the way some people talk about Robinson, you’d think he was a total bust in year one but ended the season as the RB9. What makes me even more excited about Robinson is that he did all this on a bottom-seven offense (18.9 PPG). In what should be a much-improved situation for Robinson going forward, I expect him to live up to his RB1 price tag.
Breece Hall
During his rookie season, Breece Hall was viewed as the RB1 just before he tore his ACL. Despite only playing seven games and starting in two, Hall averaged 16.4 PPG in his rookie year. Now, ACL injuries are tough to recover from, but modern medicine has improved drastically. Of course, it’s different for every player, but Hall came back better than ever in 2023.
Heading into 2023, most owners had low expectations for Hall, but he crushed averaging 17.1 PPG. With Aaron Rodgers out for the year, the Jets were the fourth-worst offense in the entire NFL (15.8 PPG). A lot of Hall’s success came through the air as he drew 95 targets and caught 76 passes. Coming out of Iowa State, Hall was a great prospect, and one of his biggest strengths was his pass-catching ability.
After seeing Hall tear it up during his last three games, I’m all in. Hall is only 22 years old, seems fully recovered from his ACL injury, and should be stepping into a much better situation in 2024. Right now, Hall is my RB3, but if the Jets offense is truly elite with Rodgers, I could see him rising even higher.
Breece Hall was incredible in 2023 in the run and pass game... enjoy 8 minutes of touchdowns, big runs and catches for the star 2nd year RB... The All-22 is special stuff pic.twitter.com/tGVl9pPwah
Christian McCaffrey
It almost feels unfair to put Christian McCaffrey in this discussion because of his age, but there’s still a case for him as the RB1. McCaffrey was the best player in fantasy football last year, and it looks like he’ll be the consensus 1.01 in 2024. In 2023, McCaffrey had his best season since 2020, averaging a remarkable 24.5 PPG.
The running back age cliff is typically 28, but we haven’t seen any slowing down from McCaffrey. That said, It’s tough to rank McCaffrey as the RB1 when he may only have a few more seasons left. Even so, when healthy, McCaffrey is a fantasy cheat code which makes up for age.
At this point, we all know who McCaffrey is. McCaffrey is a great pass catcher who drew 83 targets and caught 67 passes in 2023. Let’s not undermine McCaffrey’s ability in the run game, though, as he ran for 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns. Right now, McCaffrey is my RB4, but if you’re a win-now team, there’s no other back I would take over him.
Dynasty RB1: Bijan Robinson
At the end of the day, only three players should be considered for the RB1, and they’re all very close—sorry, Christian McCaffrey. I’m going with the 21-year-old running back, Bijan Robinson, who should have at least seven more years of elite production. It’s also worth noting that injury history and age play such an important part in the modern running back landscape.
Robinson has a three-down skillset, elite draft capital, and has produced at a high level in his rookie season. The only question I have with Robinson is his offense, but firing Smith is a step in the right direction. In 2023, the issue was clearly at quarterback, but besides that, the Falcons could become an elite offense with key pieces like Kyle Pitts and Drake London.
Something has to be done this off-season, and I believe the Falcons will draft a quarterback 8th overall or acquire Justin Fields from the Bears. If the Falcons can get an average quarterback and a competent coach, they can be a top-10 offense in 2024.
Man ... Justin Fields looks GOOD in a Falcons jersey ?
Will he be in Atlanta next year? ?#DirtyBirds | #DaBears | #NFL pic.twitter.com/tPcLAQSsJm
