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2024 First Basemen Targets

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr

Vladimir Guerrero Jr took a small step back last season after two dominant seasons with the stick, but the peripherals tell a different story. Guerrero's statcast page from 2023 is full of red (other than fielding stats, but who cares about that in fantasy) and mimics closer to his 2021 season than his 2022 season, which leads me to believe he will bounce back to a first-round value in 2024. Guerrero gets to bat in the middle of a dominant Toronto lineup and can be expected to continue with a strong average, 90+ runs, and RBI, but the home runs are what moves him from a 3rd round pick to a late-round pick.

Posting random Blue Jays highlights until Opening Day: Day 119/175:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a BOMB off of Corbin Burnes! (2021) pic.twitter.com/uKvFqa75fX

— BlueJays Muse (@BlueJays_Muse) February 2, 2024

The thing I find the most interesting is that the knock on Guerrero in his first season in the pros was that his launch angle was far from desirable; however, last year was his best launch angle season. If Guerrero maintains that in 2024, with his hard-hit hit %, he may return to his .290 35-homer pace, making him extremely desirable to draft to make a high-floor player. 

 

 

 

Rhys Hoskins

Rhys Hoskins unfortunately tore his ACL last season and missed a second special run by the Phillies. Hoskins tried to come back and may have been able to make the World Series roster had the Phillies not choked in the NLCS. Hoskins has always been an elite on-base guy with plus power and lower batting averages. In 2022, Hoskins popped 30 homers with plus statcast ratings in barrel %, chase %, xwOBA, and many other categories.

Hoskins gets a downgrade going from a strong Phillies lineup to a somewhat rebuilding Brewers lineup, but hitting behind high OBP guys like William Contreras and Christian Yelich should provide him with plenty of RBI opportunities. As the 20th first baseman off the board in NFBC formats, I think Hoskins is an insane value. Draft confidently. 

 

 

Nathaniel Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe was a darling of 2022, providing insane value to anyone who drafted him late, but he was a bit of a letdown in 2023, finishing with only 17 homers despite a career-high in at-bats. Lowe has a superior hit tool but lacks a bit in the power department. However, a few things give me hope that Lowe can bounce back to a mid-20s home run guy with continued high averages and RBIs.

Top 5 1st basemen in the AL since 2021 in terms of fWAR:
1st-Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (8.5)
2nd- NATHANIEL LOWE (6.0)
3rd- Yandy Diaz (5.6)
4th- Ty France (5.5)
5th- Matt Olson (from when he was with the A's in 2021) (5.3) pic.twitter.com/phgsSuF1e1

— RANGER_DANGER_STATSSSS (@MLBMan8) January 29, 2024

First off, Lowe's barrel percentage was down to 6.5, and he has always been a 9 or 10% barrel percentage player. There is no reason to expect that number to stay low. Lowe also continued to post above average hard hit percent and average exit velocity, which gives me hope that he will post a season closer to his 2022 than his 2023. Being in the Rangers lineup provides a great opportunity for runs and RBI as well. Lowe is a high-floor option for a CI or second 1st baseman. 

 

 

Jake Burger

Jake Burger, a former 1st round pick, had a breakout season last year, splitting time between the White Sox and Marlins. Burger popped 34 homers with incredible stat cast numbers. Burger was 98th percent in barrel percent, 91st percent in slug, and 75% in xBA give him a good platform to continue this success in 2024.

Burger hit most of his homers in Chicago, which has a much better home run factor than Miami. That said, Burger's power plays wherever. I believe batting 4th in the Marlins lineup provides Burger a good opportunity to continue to put up good numbers. Burger's xBA appears to prop up his batting average expectation, but I am a bit concerned about his batting average due to his near 30% strikeout rate. I think Burger is a great player to pair with a higher average player with a little less pop to even out your ratios. Plus, you get 3rd base eligibility too. 

 

 

Nolan Schanuel

Okay, I won’t really be drafting Nolan Schanuel, but I will be keeping a close eye on him at the beginning of the year. If Schanuel can tap into any power whatsoever, he could have a breakout. Schanuel's hit tool and command of the strike zone may be the best out of any first baseman in baseball. Schanuel rushed to the majors last year and got a cup of coffee with 139 plate appearances.

Schanuel had a higher walk ratio than k%, and if he had enough at-bats to qualify, he would have been in the top 10% in a lot of categories, including sweet spot %, chase %, and whiff %. Schanuel's hard hit % is low; he only hit one homer last year, and he has a low barrel %. Based on college stats and his pop back at Florida Atlantic, I think with some adjustments to MLB pitching, Schanuel could hit mid-teens in home runs while helping in average, OBP, runs, and RBIs. Schanuel could be great to pair with a big bopper like a Jake Burger who may hurt your average.