Lane Thomas

Last year Lane Thomas put up 28 home runs and 20 steals. Yeah, you’re probably as surprised as I am. Playing for the Washington Nationals really manages to hide the few stars that they have from media coverage. Thomas put up pretty good metrics last year to support his quality campaign. Thomas had a 74th percentile sweet spot percentage, a 9.6% barrel percentage as well as a xslg of .436.

Thomas's sprint speed in the 94th percentile says he may be able to up his steals from 20 this coming year. If he can maintain his pop, a 25/25 season could be in the works and with his high quality defense and absolutely no competition to take playing time in our Nation’s capital he can be expected to push 600+ ABs. 

 

Chas McCormick

Chas McCormick has been a quiet producer as a role player on a loaded Astros team over the past 3 years. Last year McCormick finally got a chance to be a regular starter and rewarded the team with a 22 homer, 19 steal season. McCormick posted an above average barrel rate (72%), 91st percentile sweet spot and 72nd percentile sprint speed which all support that he can replicate another 20/20 season. With a good lineup around him, runs and RBIs should be solid as well. McCormick's batting average may drop a bit but where he is getting drafted still will provide good value even if he bats .250.

 

 

Lars Nootbarr

If Lars Nootbarr can stay healthy he has all of the supporting data to put up a monster season. Nootbarr hits the ball very hard, he runs fast and he walks a ton (and has a killer eye). The Cardinals hope to have a bounce back year in 2024 and I believe a good amount of that will come down to Nootbarr health. If Nootbarr can be a cog in their lineup like he’s capable, he could be one of the better steals of the draft.

In 2023 Nootbarr was being drafted very highly and I see nothing in his profile that makes me believe his injury ridden 2023 should make his 2024 draft spot any worse. Nootbarr did have a drop in his exit velocity but I believe that a thumb, back and groin injury combination can be blamed for that. I’ll be drafting Noot as long as he can make it through spring training healthy. 

 

Tyler O’Neil

Tyler O’Neil was flipped to Boston this winter for a pair of young pitchers and will get the new start that he really needed. O’Neil's gold glove defense will always have value but he also has a chance to bounce back towards his 2021 where he put up a 35 homer and 15 steal season. I do not expect O’Neil to return to that level but having the green monster in left and no more Carlos Marmol clashing to deal with may help him return to a very reliable fantasy player.

O’Neil put up a 12.3% barrel percentage, a robust 10.5% walk rate, 80th percentile sprint speed and an xslg of .449 in 2023 which was considered to be a failure of a year. If O’Neil puts up that same season or better in Boston he will be worth his draft slot. 

 

 

Jarred Kelenic

Jarred Kelenic is my perennial kryptonite. Kelenic has tantalizing skills with impressive power and speed as a combination but strikes out way too much and has struggled to live up the pressure of being a top 10 prospect and a major piece in the Edwin Diaz trade. The Braves are an organization that I trust to pick up players who can turn it around. They made Orlando Arcia from a light hitting defense oriented SS to an all-star in 2023, replaced one of the greatest 1B of all time in Freddie Freeman with possibly the only first basemen that could successfully replace him in Matt Olson and have successfully drafted/signed the majority of their studs in their lineup.

Rumors are that Kelenic will not have to deal with a platoon which will be huge for his chances to put up some additional counting stats. Despite his high strikeout numbers he still had an xBA of .264. I do not expect that to stay that high but if he's in the .245-.250 range with 600 abs he could return solid overall value.