Second Base Targets for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

 

 

Josh Jung

Josh Jung was on his way to a very promising season last year until an unfortunate thumb fracture forced him out for a large chunk of the season. Jung hits the ball hard and cut his strikeout percentage significantly last year making him less of a BA liability. Jung may be able to take another step forward this year if he can stay healthy. One of the reasons I think that may happen is Jung didn’t look himself following the thumb injury which sapped his power and brought down his average.

Thumb injuries are notorious for taking some time to get your power back. Additionally Jung was a sub 25% k rate all through the minors and if he can drop down to that in the majors one can dream of a BA around .265 along with 30 homers and close to 100 rbi. That would make Jung a major steal at his current draft spot.  

Ke’Bryan Hayes

I’ve had on and off bets with one of my buddies about Ke’Bryan Hayes. I’m usually on the side that Hayes is overrated however this year I think is the year he finally breaks out. First off Hayes is fully healthy going into spring which is something crucial for him. Secondly taking a peek at his statcast page shows both an elite hard hit rate 48.3% and xBA of .273.

Ke'Bryan Hayes - 06/11/2021 pic.twitter.com/KxmBtLX1BS

— Random Homers (@randomhomers) February 11, 2024

Hayes additionally has above average speed that may have been affected last year due to low back pain that put him on the IL. If Hayes's elite hard hit rate maintains and speed return there’s no reason to not dream on a 20/20 season that could come with a very good average. The thing I was most excited in Hayes's profile for this season that finally has me believing in him is that he increased his launch angle from around 5 to 13 degrees last year. Hayes is kind of similar to Yandy Diaz in that he would hit the ball hard as hell but into the ground but with an increased launch angle we can expect more homers. Let’s hope he keeps up this trend. 

 

 

Christian Encarnacion Strand

Prior to yesterday I was avoiding Christian Encarnacion Strand at his draft position due to uncertainty in the Reds’ infield. The Reds have so many quality pieces that all hit the ball hard and can be useful fantasy pieces that I was afraid Strand would be more of a backup at first and third base rather than a regular. Two days ago, news came out that he would be expected to start at first base for the reds with Jeimer Candelario bouncing around.

I am optimistic that this take will be true as Strand has legit pop and high quality hit tools. Strand didn’t have enough at bats last year to qualify for statcast measures but if you look at the body of work he would be in the top 3/4 of the league in xBA, barrel percentage, xSLG and hard hit percentage. Strand even showed 55th percentile sprint speed and a desirable launch angle close to 20 degrees.

Strand looks like a potential break out player if he gets the at bats that he deserves. If Strand does indeed start at first and put up over 500 ABs I would expect him to put up just under 30 homers and a .270 average or better. One of the more boom or bust options but as the playing time concerns clear up more and more Strand may rise in drafts. 

Matt Chapman

Matt Chapman had a breakout first half last year looking like an all star before falling off hard in the second half. Chapman will never be a high batting average guy but he does post elite barrel percentages, hard hit rates, and max EV speeds that all demonstrate expectations for good power. Chapman is discounted this year in comparison to previous years because he was injured and had less home runs but a dive into his stats show a drastic uptick in doubles from previous years but actually an increase in barrel percentage and hard hit rate.

Matt Chapman against NL Central pitching this season pic.twitter.com/Cbqz4nbHaT

— Jacob Zanolla (@jz2016cubs) February 10, 2024

Rogers Center had changed wall height in 2023 which suppressed homers for all of the Blue Jays players and changed the park factor for home runs from a very above average 127 down to a below league average 95. Chapman is still searching for a new home for 2024 but my bet is that he lands somewhere with an improved park factor for home runs.  Additionally he has gold glove defense so volume will never be an issue. I like Chapman to get back to his 30+ home runs with good walk rates that will translate to great return on value. 

 

 

Brett Baty

Brett Baty has been a downright disappointment for the Mets since he has been called up to the majors. Baty is an elite prospect who peaked at #10 overall prospect in all of baseball by MLB Pipeline. Baty was known as a power hitting third baseman with an average hit tool and above average defense. However, Baty has struggled to get the bat on the ball so far striking out 28% of the time last season. So why am I interested in this guy?

The Mets have been quite the rollercoaster since Steve Cohen bought the team initially trying to sign a bunch of high profile expensive players to compete for a playoff berth. The season went disastrous and expectations were all over the place. This year the Mets finally seem to have some vision as they know this year may be a bit of a rebuilding year. This plays great for Baty as the pressure of potentially being released or sent back down if he has some struggles is no longer there.

The plate skills and power are still there as demonstrated when Baty was sent back to AAA last summer. Baty hit .298 and had 10 home runs while raising his walk rate and decreasing his K rate. Baty is going extremely late because of his struggles in the bigs last year but I think he’s a great post hype sleeper to target in deeper leagues.