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The dynasty off-season is now underway which means one thing. It’s time for some more dynasty startup drafts. Below, I’m going to be looking at the South Harmon Dynasty Startup ADP and listing what players I want to avoid in rounds one through five. Now, this doesn’t mean I’m avoiding these players at all cost, but compared to the value around them, I would much rather pivot in another direction.

Round One

Justin Jefferson - ADP: 1.06

Let me start by saying there’s no way you can make a horrible pick in round one, and I’m not hating on Justin Jefferson. That said, out of the 12 players, I’m not in love with taking Jefferson this high with other great quarterbacks on the board. According to South Harmon ADP, Jefferson is being drafted 6th overall, three spots higher than CeeDee Lamb and four spots higher than Ja'Marr Chase. 

The main issue I have here is that I believe CJ Stroud, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow are all in the same tier. In a startup, I’d be taking all of them over any other skill player. According to the ADP, Jefferson is being drafted between the 1.05, which is Jackson, and the 1.07, which is Burrow. I would rather have Burrow over Jefferson, and I wouldn’t be surprised if someone took Burrow or Herbert over Jackson. If you want to build around an elite receiver, it makes a lot more sense to wait until the 1.09 and grab Lamb or Chase because both players are in the same tier as Jefferson. 

Round Two

Christian McCaffrey - ADP: 2.06

Christian McCaffrey is easily the RB1 for 2024, and if you’re contending, having him on your team is a massive advantage. That said, when drafting your dynasty team, you should be looking to accumulate the most value possible. I don’t like to pick a team direction until after the draft because you have the whole off-season to make trades and reshape your roster. By committing yourself to building a contending team, you’ll miss out on a lot of value throughout the draft.

According to the South Harmon ADP, the rookie pick 1.03 is going six spots behind McCaffrey, which doesn’t make sense. According to Flock Fantasy’s consensus rankings, the community values the 1.05 one spot ahead of McCaffrey. Even if you think that’s a little low for McCaffrey, let’s cross-reference the 1.03 value with the consensus selection right now, Drake Maye. On KTC, Maye is ranked 21st overall, and McCaffrey is 23rd. 

We’ve seen it every year, and the 2024 off-season will be no different. As the NFL draft gets closer and closer, the value of these rookie picks will increase. Let’s say you want to be a contender after the draft. You can still get McCaffrey for that rookie pick, and you may even get some extra draft capital on top of it. 

Round Three

Kyren Williams - ADP: 3.11

It pains me to say this because Kyren Williams was my waiver wire hero last season, but I won’t be drafting him at the 3.11. Many people are out on Williams because of his low draft capital, but with how the running back landscape looks right now, few players have long-term jobs anyways. One issue I have with Williams is he was a major benefactor of the Rams having a great offense last season, but with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp aging out, we could see a big fall-off soon. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams decide to tear things down in the next 1-2 years, and that would hurt Williams a ton.

On top of that, the same argument I have with McCaffrey applies here. On FantasyFlock.com, Williams is ranked 53rd overall, compared to the 1.05, which is valued at 29th overall. Yet when we’re looking at the South Harmon ADP, the rookie pick 1.05 is being drafted at the 3.12, one spot behind Williams. 

If you want to look at another source, Malik Nabers is the likely 1.05, and according to KTC, he’s ranked 28th overall compared to Williams at 42. Just like we said with McCaffrey, if you still want Williams after the draft, you can trade for him if you prioritize value insulation. 

Round Four

Jared Goff - ADP: 4.11

I don’t mind Jared Goff as a player, but I’m not taking him this early when there’s not another quarterback going until the 6.06. Yes, Goff is my number one ranked quarterback on the board, but I have him in the same tier as Bryce Young and Baker Mayfield, who you can get a few rounds later. I would rather have Goff over Young, but the difference between the two isn’t two rounds.

Goff is a good QB2, but he’s 29 years old and doesn’t have a very high ceiling. In 2018, Goff threw for 4,688 yards and still only scored 19.4 PPG. In the fourth round, I’d take Drake London at the 4.12 and then grab Young at the 6.08 or even Mayfield at the 7.06.

Round Five

Kenneth Walker - ADP: 5.07

I’m not a big fan of Kenneth Walker, even though, as a pure runner, he’s fantastic. That said, let’s not forget that the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Walker has also never been a good pass catcher, and in year one, Charbonnet had more targets than him. Charbonnet looks like he’ll be the go-to back in passing situations, which limits Walker’s upside.

Even as a rookie, Charbonnet cut into Walker’s snap share quite a bit. After week eight, the two were essentially splitting the backfield. Walker never had more than 60% of the snaps and only crossed 50% three times after week eight. I expect Charbonnet to get even better in year two, and with now offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, there’s a chance Walker will become the secondary back.