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The NFL Combine just wrapped up, and we finally have a ton of new information to talk about. Before we get into the article, I’d like to give an honorable mention to Xavier Worthy, who broke the 40-yard dash record with a 4.21 time. Worthy measured in at 165 pounds, and while he definitely helped his NFL draft stock, I’m not moving him up in my rankings. That said, let’s dive into the biggest risers and fallers from the 2024 NFL combine.

Risers

Trey Benson

The running backs had the most to gain at the combine, and Trey Benson snatched that opportunity. In a year where there’s no true RB1, Benson may have just vaulted himself above Jonathon Brooks for that top spot. Benson measured in at 6’0” and 216 lbs, which is well above the threshold we’re looking for in a potential RB1 (208 lbs). More so than any other position, speed, and size are crucial for a running back, and Benson followed that up with a 4.39 40-yard dash, which was the third fastest in the class.

Trey Benson 4.39 unofficial 40. RB1 him pic.twitter.com/143WNH1zYy

Of course, the combine isn’t everything, but Benson has shown a lot of positive attributes on tape as well. Although Benson needs to hit holes consistently, we’ve now seen that he has the speed to do so. One of the more predictive measures for determining fantasy success is looking at yards per reception for each player. Benson showed off his receiving capabilities with 11.56 yards per reception (4th among RBs), and he looked good catching passes in these drills as well.

Brian Thomas Jr

If  Xavier Worthy hadn’t gone out and broken the 40-yard dash record, Brian Thomas Jr would have been the main story in Indianapolis. Thomas ran an absurd 4.33 40-yard dash at 6’3” 209 lbs, which has shot him up draft boards. Looking at Thomas’s RAS (Relative Athletic Score) on a scale of 10, he recorded a 9.97, the second highest among 2024 wide receivers. After Thomas’s fantastic combine, he’s a lock to be drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft.

Looking at Flock Fantasy’s WR model, there have been 138 wide receivers to finish as a WR1 after running above 4.58 40-yard dash, but only 16 finished as a WR1 without hitting that mark. Not only did Thomas hit that mark, but he crushed it, which is exactly what you want to see out of a bigger wide receiver. Thomas wasn’t able to play as a WR1 in college due to his situation, but after seeing his insane athletic capabilities, it’s clear he has the profile to become an alpha WR1 in the NFL.

Jaylen Wright

Leading up to the combine, Jaylen Wright received a ton of hype because of his 22 MPH recorded GPS speed against Georgia. Wright proved that run was no fluke, running the second fastest 40 time for a running back in 2024 at 4.38 seconds. Since Wright is also a shorter, more compact player, his measurements were very important. Wright clocked in at 5’10” and 210 lbs, which makes his size slightly above average and increases his hit rate.

Jaylen Wright scored a 9.75 out of 10.00 on his RAS score.

Wright ranks 44th out of 1745 RB's from 1987 to 2024. His 11'2" broad jump is the 2nd longest ever recorded by a running back at the NFL Combine.

First 5 yards of the 40 yard dash:

?Jaylen Wright: 15.16 MPH
?De'von… pic.twitter.com/lfml6NReNt

At the NFL level, teams are obsessed with speed, especially at running back. As I mentioned before, there’s no true RB1 in this class, so if Wright gets good draft capital and heads to a fantastic landing spot, the crown could be his. Wright also finished with a 9.82 RAS score, the second in the 2024 class. Draft capital is crucial for Wright, but he earned himself a nice bump at the combine.

Fallers

Bucky Irving

I don’t want to overreact, but Bucky Irving may be dead in the water. Coming in at 5’9” and 192 lbs, Irving needed to showcase elite-level speed to compensate for his lack of size. Instead, Irving ran a 4.55 40-yard dash, which was 14th in the class. Irving wasn’t even close to hitting the 208 lb threshold, drastically decreasing his hit rate. According to Fantasy Flock, there have been 122 running backs to finish as an RB1 that go over this threshold, but only 51 running back one’s fell under that mark.

In order to get a full understanding of just how crushing this profile is, let’s look at Irving’s RAS score. RAS takes into account Irving’s height and weight in order to give him a fair evolution. When looking at all the measurements, Irving recorded a 3.71 RAS score, which is terrible. At this point, I’m out on Irving, and he’s likely a day-three NFL draft pick after his performance.

Bucky Irving is a RB prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored an unofficial 3.71 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 1111 out of 1765 RB from 1987 to 2024.

Splits projectedhttps://t.co/a4wZ0FPNTy pic.twitter.com/Y3P32Zx2rC

Audric Estime

This pains me to write because heading into the combine, I’d really started to come around on Audric Estime. Estime looks good on tape, but his combined performance was a nightmare. There were no worries about Estime’s size as he measured in at 5’11 221 lbs, making many hopeful he can become a three-down back. The positive news ended here as Estime ran a 4.71 40-yard dash, which was the worst time of any running back this year. Estime is a bigger back, so you can’t expect him to post a fantastic time, but 4.71 is really bad. 

In order to account for Estime’s size, let’s take a look at his RAS score instead. Estime actually had a decent RAS score of 8.13, but for fantasy football, the odds are still not in his favor. Fantasy Flock pulled some data, and 141 running backs who ran over a 4.62 went on to become an RB1, while only 33 who ran slower accomplished the feat. Now, you may be arguing that Estime isn’t going to become an RB1, which is a fair point, but nonetheless, his slow 40 time dropped him down draft boards and showed he has limited upside.