@jerseyxswap
As the draft approaches, everyone involved gets antsier and antsier. Rumors fly around. Reporters claim they have inside scoops about trade details. By the time the dust settles, about 10% of what was said has come to fruition. This is the level of credence I have been giving the Cardinals and Vikings trade-up reports.
If you missed it, there were tweets this past week claiming the Cardinals and Vikings have been discussing moving the 4th overall pick. Of course, GMs are supposed to do due diligence and these talks probably happened; that does not mean something is on the table. Nevertheless, the discourse brings up an interesting discussion about the value surrounding the player the Vikings are purportedly targeting - Michigans' own, JJ McCarthy.
At this point in time, analysts have pored through the entirety of McCarthy's career and come up with whatever opinion they may have on his game. This range is anywhere from QB3 in the draft to 2nd round talent that will be reached for and flounder. With so, so many different takes out there, I’d like to squeeze everything you need to know about this situation into one piece- Who is JJ McCarthy? What is he good at, and what can he improve? How does he project into the NFL, specifically if the Vikings pull the trigger? If they do, is there such thing as taking him too high? Let’s take a look.
Quarterback is a specifically difficult position to analyze. There are many factors, schemes, and responsibilities. Everything the player does relies on each piece of the offense around him operating well, so, let’s put McCarthy in context.
The National Champion Michigan Offense did not lose a single game last year, and for good reason. The Michigan offensive line is full of massive human beings, and the perfect curveball to the big guys is a super small, smart, compact running back in Blake Corum. With the power run, Michigan could do anything they wanted. That means some pressure of needing ‘the guy’ at quarterback is taken off. When the run game is strong, the Play Action game is too. Teams had to play heavier sets or commit an extra man into the box to counter the size up front, and that opened up the middle or deep field so that McCarthy could get some clean looks.
McCarthy's protection service was also great on straight dropbacks, as he had plenty of clean pockets to operate from. Having a clean pocket was crucial, as Michigan’s long progressing routes into the deep middle of the field/ the boundaries took some time before the throwing window was open. All in all, his immediate supporting cast did their job, and they did it well.
The reason this is so important within the evaluation of his profile is because team strength is not a translatable quality- the line he stands behind in MIN will not be as dominant as he had in college, and therefore the crutches he had will be stolen away from him. The question is- does McCarthy collapse, or learn how to walk? I looked at the tape to see what I could learn.
Athleticism
(tape used- all throws/runs from 2023)
McCarthy is a plus athlete who can get out of the pocket and use his legs for yards when necessary, and he shows good speed on the QB power runs he executed.
JJ McCarthy executing a textbook QB power pic.twitter.com/OCtEYUru1G
McCarthy employs his muscles very quickly in reaction to what he sees- I would say this gives him an edge in avoidance of sacks and operating flexibly from the pocket without abandoning it. McCarthy also has impressively swively hips; he can change his direction and keep good speed to evade angles after taking off. McCarthy has the mobility to shirk pressure and get out of the pocket quickly when necessary.
Footwork
For someone his age, McCarthy has fantastic footwork. McCarthy is jittery but controlled, light on his feet while keeping a strong throwing base. McCarthy keeps his front foot pointed at his target through his reads. McCarthy's 5 step drops are crisp, and as a result his throws come out with pop and good timing. McCarthy is able to get good torque off his back foot when throwing on the run, but definitely not at the RPMs Drake Maye or Caleb Williams rip. McCarthy's 7 step drops are about as good; He gets his face toward the play quickly and is ready to hit his target with timing.
One knock I have is that McCarthy will be a little too ready to abandon his base on the run- there are plays where he has time to reset and get into his normal motion but chooses to try to rip it off his back foot while moving instead; velocity and accuracy suffer, and he shorts it into the dirt. Hopefully, this is something that can be reversed as McCarthy gets more comfortable in the NFL.
Throwing
Brass Tacks- McCarthy can huck it. McCarthy doesn’t have the arm to throw moon beams, but that is a superstar trait, not a normal one. Nevertheless, McCarthy has ++ velocity and many plays on tape where he beats a closing cornerbacks by really shooting it to his receiver.
JJ McCarthy zipping it on the run to beat closing flat defender pic.twitter.com/cRrmHCaCCF
McCarthy can also hit the far boundary from the opposite hash with good timing, which is definitely a separator of NFL starter and NFL backup (ahem, Mac Jones). You can trust McCarthy to be consistently on target when he is on time and in sequence. He has good zip off his back foot on the run, but does not throw as consistently (because he isn’t playing to his strong footwork) when on the move. McCarthy also has fantastic touch to get the ball to the right spot for the receiver- he puts it on whatever side the DB is NOT, and does it well, as long as the throw is up the seam, into a honey hole, or to a receiver who is 1 on 1.
Where I see McCarthy struggle is med-deep passes that require a lofted touch. *Disclaimer*- McCarthy throwing a lofted fade that fits between the DB and boundary is one of the toughest throws a QB can make; when he sails the ball out of bounds while trying to fit it over a stacked corner and into the breadbasket for his receiver, he isn’t instantly a bad thrower.
Processing
By all accounts, McCarthy is a ++ processor of leverage. The offense relied on his ability to anticipate open receivers and get the ball accurately and on time to the correct location. So, McCarthy is a fantastic operator when in the pocket and on time. McCarthy is quick to ID and react to blitzers incoming and has a fire plan in his mind, but I am not sure about his ability to ID this pre-snap, as he didn’t dare change Jim Harbaughs’s plays on-field. The regimented offense he played in did not require him to make multiple reads and decide what to do based on spacing. So, it is a complete question mark what his effectiveness would be if McCarthy were to be at the helm in anything but a pro-style offense.
Overall, McCarthy reacts quickly to stimuli and keeps his head in all dangerous situations- all the way until the play is out of his hands. McCarthy didn’t have to get through multiple reads, though, so we don’t know how he will fare if shoved into that situation in the NFL. But- he has all of the physical tools and mental capability to learn and grow, and a good handful of pro level plays on his tape.
Fit on the Vikings: Dynasty Implications
If the Vikings choose to go with McCarthy, they will be taking a leap of faith. I do see the Vikings path forward here, though. Right now, the Vikings have a rock solid coaching staff with a joker of a DC in Brian Flores. They have a great skill group with the recent addition of Aaron Jones. This is like a cradle for a young quarterback, to nurse him into a prosperous career. Taking McCarthy would mean understanding he will sit behind Sam Darnold for a half season, maybe a whole one. Or- that McCarthy will be thrown into the fire and probably struggle to find footing for a bit. That said, with McCarthy's processing capabilities and the good environment around him, I could see him becoming a solid and consistent positive presence for that offense. Say, kind of like a Kirk Cousins! Maybe with a bit more upside to keep his head and win close games, though… By my book, McCarthy has the upside range of a low end QB1.
Verdict
The Vikings are staring down a franchise-shifting decision. They’ve already stepped into the unknown by moving on from their darling Kirk Cousins, and they seem to be preparing to dive head first into a new QB regime. McCarthy is young, but vetted. Inexperienced, yet a National Champion. A bit behind his top tier peers, but capable nonetheless. After going through everything he put on tape this year, I believe it would be a reach for them to take McCarthy within the top 7 (as they are being mocked to move up to). Personally, I have McCarthy as a mid round 1 talent. However, quarterback is so unbelievably important. Skilled processors who can calmly run a system with limited mistakes are hard to come by, and McCarthy fits that mold well, with room to grow.
If McCarthy can grow into the consistent, quick thinking field commander the Vikings may believe he is, then we will be laughing at how frivolous this whole pre draft discussion was. Even if McCarthy never lifts off his floor, he could still be a solid journeyman. Though I wish I could deliver the future sports clippings into your hands, only time will tell what the future holds for McCarthy.
