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It’s the most wonderful time of the year. Free agency has been in full swing, draft rumors are starting to heat up, and we’re staring down the barrel of our rookie drafts. Barring a couple of pro days, we have all the information we will get about the prospects coming into the league. When there are ten-plus quality receivers, four-plus quarterbacks with relevance, and a smattering of runningbacks that fit somewhere in between, it can be hard to parse through what to do with your pick.
In this piece, I will walk through each slot in a 12-team Superflex Dynasty Rookie Draft and explain what you should be looking for (and avoiding) at each spot. Some are no-brainers, and some are much more difficult. Hopefully by the end of it, you’ll have full confidence in yourself and who your guy will be come April.
I will include tiers, trade ideas, and valuation comparisons. The player I put as selected at that pick should be assumed to be off the board afterward. So, this is like a mock draft based on player value with every caveat you could possibly think of.
DISCLAIMER- This information is based off a Superflex, 12-team league. I will include Tight End Premium considerations and a scale for whether your league is bigger or smaller than 12 teams. Keep these assumptions in mind.
PICK 1- Caleb Williams
Some years, it is super fun to have the first pick, and others, you can’t wait for someone to offer you a trade so you can move back. This year, it’s smooth sailing. Caleb Williams is your pick. Don’t overthink it. Williams has special tools, great footwork, twitchiness in his mobility, and quick processing. Williams is a safe pick, and the Bears have already started building around him.
There is only one other player who should be considered here- Drake Maye. I fully understand how high Marvin Harrison Jr is going in drafts, and for good reason. However, please remember- you are in a Superflex league, and the quarterback position is both the highest scoring and most devoid of quality starters. The position is at an extreme premium, and only if you have two capable starters shouldn’t you even think about passing on one like Williams. Even then, consider taking the higher value and trading from your roster.
If you are in a league with fewer than 12 teams, quarterback matters less. If you have more than 12 teams, it matters more. Speaking from experience in a 16-man league, the quarterback situation differentiates serious contenders from unserious ones. Take your league size and all the situations your league-mates have at the position into account.
PICK 2- Drake Maye
Pick two is another good seat to have in this year’s draft. Here, the pick is Drake Maye. If you need a quarterback, then Maye is a must-draft. I don’t care how much you love Marvin Harrison Jr; he will likely not provide as much carried trade value or produce more points per game than Maye. Of course, Harrison Jr is the best receiver in the draft, but that’s also the deepest position for a dynasty by far.
Maye is instinctual, smooth, athletic, a great processor, and has an actual cannon hanging off his right shoulder. I have a piece on quarterbacks coming out that will delve much further into him and his profile as a prospect. In the meantime, you can follow Nate Tice and Derek Klassen on Twitter. They are both fantastic quarterback evaluators who can tell you more about Maye as a prospect.
The value proposition at this pick is that you can get a tier-1 quarterback. Just like in the NFL draft, that is a valuable key to hold. If you would like to trade back from this spot, make sure you are getting paid as such. Trading is free and easy, so take the value even if you don’t have a need at the position.
PICK 3- Marvin Harrison Jr
Marvin Harrison Jr is easily the best player available, so he would be a great pick, but you give up one thing in taking him. The advantage of a unique year of receivers. If you were to trade the third pick and allow someone to come in and take Harrison Jr themselves, you would have the opportunity to move back a few spaces and take a receiver who is only slightly less talented.
So, here’s the choice. Make the Harrison pick, Jr, and I won’t blame you. You likely won’t regret it. Before you do so, float the idea of moving back 1-3 spots. If you can pick up a valuable piece and still get one of Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, or Brock Bowers (especially in Tight End Premium!), you may find yourself in a better position for your team to score a bunch of points. It’s worth a try, trust me.
PICK 4- Malik Nabers
Honestly, there aren’t too many decisions to make at this spot. Again, if anybody I’ve listed above hasn’t gone by this pick, you take them before Malik Nabers. If not, it’s a question of who will score more points in their career: Nabers or Odunze. Based on playstyle, I give Nabers the nod.
Nabers and Odunze will most likely both eventually go to places where they are the focal point, and Nabers has a much more explosive and wide-open game. Odunze will be nasty, don’t get me wrong; however, he may be nasty in the same way Mike Evans is, while Nabers is more like DJ Moore. Anywhere 1.04-1.06 will field a similar level of talent, so feel free to move back within and ask for a higher price from a pick in a tier below.
If you want some in-depth information on Odunze and Nabers, I have a piece on my Substack that delves deep into the games of nearly every relevant receiver in the draft.
PICK 5- Rome Odunze
With Nabers gone, Rome Odunze is next. Odunze is smooth, dependable, strong, and way quicker than he should be at his size. This is a fantastic player, and you should be happy the class is strong enough to get a guy of his caliber here. Pick five is the middle pick in this 1.04-1.06 tier, so moving up or down by one should be done cheaply. Don’t overpay, but don’t undercharge.
In Tight End Premium leagues, Brock Bowers should absolutely be a consideration for this pick. I expect him to be used like Mike Gesicki was coming into the league. Well, like if Gesicki was effective. That means tons of slot snaps, designed motion plays, and screens. Flip-flopping between Bowers and Odunze is completely acceptable, depending on your need at the position.
Sitting at 1.05 is a breeze. If you are desperate at quarterback and have Daniels in mind, know it is a reach at this point. And with his rushing floor, you will not realize the losses on him until a few years down the line. So, if you need quarterback points in the worst way this year, Daniels is fine to take. Just understand you are leaving better talent available for one of your league-mates to collect for themselves.
PICK 6- Brock Bowers
We saw plenty of unicorn tight ends enter the league in recent years, but Brock Bowers stands by himself. Bowers is the alpha unicorn, you may say. Bowers’s ball skills, speed, and route technique at the size he carries are too much to pass over. Bowers will be a weapon for whoever takes him, and the fact he carries around the tight-end designation is a boon; the position is super top-heavy.
Though tight ends usually take some time to adjust to the pros, Bowers has a solid chance to be dependable sooner rather than later. Still, don’t treat Bowers like a guy who is guaranteed to come in on day one and score as many points as your WR2. You take Bowers for his talent and staying power. Trust the process.
Bowers is the end of the 1.04-1.06 tier. After this, we drop down to the real mud of this first round- multiple talented players who could be moved up and down based on landing spot.
PICK 7- Brian Thomas Jr
Brian Thomas Jr is my WR4, and he’s a smooth, fast, long, tall flanker who will probably get drafted higher than you think. Thomas murders in the open field, and if he can slot into an offense that doesn’t put too much pressure on him to consistently uncover like an X does, he can excel.
The alternatives here are strong, though; Jayden Daniels, Troy Franklin, and Adonai Mitchell are all in play. That would make this tier picks 1.07-1.10. You may disagree with my pick of receiver, and that’s fine. As long as you’re within the tier, you shouldn’t lose much value.
When it comes to Jayden Daniels, I pass on him in this spot because I think it is still a bit too rich for the median case of what he becomes in the NFL. As we know, rushing quarterbacks are cheat codes, and Daniels should do plenty of running. So, in a 12+ team league, you can feel okay with taking him. If you have no good quarterback, Daniels should 100% be your selection. If you have one good starter, go receiver instead.
PICK 8- Jayden Daniels
If Jayden Daniels is still available at eight, you should consider taking him instantly. Though Daniels has more red flags (age and processing) than the top two quarterbacks, he will be taken top three in the NFL draft and be given as many tools as possible to succeed. I expect Daniels to do a LOT of running, as he is very used to bailing out his slow eyes with his quick feet.
I see Daniels as a shorter-term starter where either he slowly gets better at making reads and sticking in the pocket, or he continues to lean on his feet too much and doesn’t develop as a passer. In the best-case situation, he has to carry value and have a good rushing floor. In the ladder worst-case situation, Daniels puts up solid points through 2 or 3 years on his rookie deal and sort of flounders out.
There is plenty of boom/bust potential here, which will make or break you- depending on your tactics. Only take on the risk you are willing to hold. If you’re confident in Daniels, then you just scored! Great pick! If you’re not, don’t feel bad one bit about trading back and giving that eager league-mate the shot to draft him. You could also take Mitchell or Franklin and sit back with your new-fangled, talented weapon. It is much more enjoyable to play this game of dynasty when you trust your gut and see where it brings you.
PICK 9- Troy Franklin
Troy Franklin ekes out Mitchell for me by just a hair (you can read about why on my receivers writeup), but we are still within the tier, and you may choose who you like. If you dare to move down from this spot, understand that the talent afterward is a bit less versatile than these two guys. Either of them can become a focus of targets on their team wherever they go. So, check out the landing spots and make your decision. Don’t let a bad spot scare you off too much; talent shines through.
You may notice that I haven’t mentioned a running back yet. That is for good reason. Even if you have zero running backs on your roster, the velocity of trades is quick, and you need to take the best player available. To reach for a running back this early is to give up on all of the value between where you selected them and their real ADP.
The most efficient draft is one where you select the player in the EXACT slot of their ADP. Players will fall below their ADP, and that would be a steal. Players get selected above their ADP, which is a reach. Reaches are not just negatives for the selector; they are positives for your opponents. Do not reach, instead make a trade.
PICK 10- Adonai Mitchell
We are rounding out the 1.07-1.10 tier with this physical specimen. Adonai Mitchell is good at football and still has room to grow. I see Mitchell as a bit of a late bloomer, as he possesses good technique but is slightly unpolished. Who cares, though? Mitchell is 6’2” 205lbs and put plenty of good stuff on tape. Mitchell will start with a smaller role in the offense, but I expect it to grow pretty aggressively. Mitchell might be the top candidate for a big sophomore breakout if he doesn’t get traction right away.
PICK 11- Keon Coleman
Pick 11 is the start of a new tier. The players here are still uber-talented and much more so than the same crop of picks from the last few years. So, don’t fret about having one of the last two picks in the round because you’ll get someone who will contribute. My pick here is Keon Coleman because he provides a lot of upside in how physically dominant he is at 20 years old. I strongly believe Coleman will get drafted in the first round of the NFL draft, and if he does, it will be to a team that has a good quarterback and needs to surround their guy with more talent (I’m talking to you, Bills).
Other options at this slot include Ja’Lynn Polk, Ladd McConkey, JJ McCarthy, and Jonathon Brooks. There is a lot of variability here, and I would not attack you for going for any of the above names. Holding this pick, I would actively try to move up or down based on how I feel about the surrounding players. Going up a tier into picks 1.07-1.10 would be a good step up in talent, and moving down to picks 2.02-2.05 would not be a huge step down.
If you want to trade up, make sure your league-mate believes it is a smaller gap than you do. If you want to move down, make sure they think it is a bigger gap. Doing so will allow you to net more value in the transaction, as you either pay less than your perceived value or earn more.
PICK 12- Ladd McConkey
Believe it or not, this is one of the toughest slots in the first round. You have multiple talented players here, and their landing spot will heavily influence their value. The best player available may perform worse than other options because of external influences outside their control. So, consider a trade-up if you have a feeling about a guy. And if you’re stuck, understand that trading down a few spots won’t hurt you too badly.
Ladd McConkey is my pick here, with Ja’Lynn Polk nearly equivalent in value. McConkey has enough polish to instantly make an impact, at least from the slot. Polk is also great and already a better player than multiple flankers in the NFL. You should feel good about getting someone of their talent with the last pick in the first.
Every single running back is on the board right now. The 2.01 is the first pick, whereas taking one is not a reach. My RB1 is Jonathon Brooks, and I would be cool with taking him here if you absolutely need a running back. Trey Benson is in the same boat. As long as you adjust for their landing spot, you’ll be fine.
One last, very important consideration is JJ McCarthy. I wrote about him recently, so if you’d like to deep dive into his game, you may. All I know is that if the Vikings choose him on draft day, he more than likely needs to be selected or strongly considered in this spot. A Vikings pick means a fantastic surrounding situation and the exact scheme he needs to consistently put up solid points as a starter. McCarthy will probably be slow to come along, but the possible boom of picking up a startable quarterback with the last pick in the first round is tantalizing.
There you have it; round one is over. Hopefully, you came out of it with a great player who will end up holding down a starting position on your team. You can sit back and relax until round two starts! Maybe I can help you out there at a later date. Stay tuned.
