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Every NFL fan dreams of the day their team will triumphantly hoist the Lombardi Trophy. While all 32 teams go into Week 1 wide-eyed and undefeated, only a handful have a legitimate shot at making a deep playoff run, let alone winning that elusive championship. Every team deals with internal and external expectations; what can be considered a successful season for one team will undoubtedly differ from the next.
Going “all in” this offseason isn’t merely a choice for these select four teams; it’s a mandate, a declaration that no stone will be left unturned in their urgently necessary pursuit of gridiron glory. For these four teams, failure to meet the loftiest of expectations may result in catastrophic consequences and potential upheaval.
New York Jets: Surely Saleh’s Swan Song
When the Jets plucked a passionate Saleh from the 49ers three seasons ago, there was optimism surrounding the franchise’s future. Saleh’s incumbency for a fourth season should come as much surprise on the surface; few coaches have managed to last as long without a playoff appearance. However, Aaron Rodgers’ Achilles tear four offensive snaps into Week One provided Saleh and Joe Douglas the ultimate mulligan, for better or for worse.
Despite a bevy of home run moves from GM Joe Douglas, he struck out hard with his most valuable asset of all. The second overall pick in the 2021 draft. Having been granted to seek a trade almost a month ago, Zach Wilson’s status as a Jet is up in the air. Equally uncertain is the team’s arrangement for their 10th overall pick.
Before the free agency signings of guaranteed starters John Simpson, Morgan Moses, and All-Pro Tyron Smith, the Jets’ selection of an offensive lineman at ten was nailed on. Now, thanks to Douglas’s savvy moves, a newfound level of flexibility has been unlocked. Whether it still be the offensive line, wide receiver, or even tight end, one thing remains certain: the pick should go towards helping out their quarterback.
Jets fans have gone 13 long seasons without a playoff appearance, a stretch marred and often defined by sub-par quarterback play. When the likes of Chad Pennington and a 38-year-old Brett Favre are the best your club has to offer over a two-decade span at the most position in all of pro sports, success is not a given. Rodgers represents far more than a glimmer of hope to the fans and members of the Jets organization.
When we last saw Rodgers play in 2022, he threw the most interceptions (12) of his career since his first season as a starter in 2008 (13). In addition, his touchdown passes dropped yearly from 48 in 2020 to 37 to now a measly 26. Then again, a divorce with bestie Davante Adams and a WR room led by Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and a rookie Christian Watson meant Rodgers was never likely to win his third successive MVP.
While bare, the 2023 preseason film showed signs Rodgers could at least return to 80% of the player we saw in 2022. Funnily enough, this level of play would be the best the Jets have seen at quarterback since Joe Namath. At 40 years old, however, there’s no guarantee Rodgers can make it through a full season.
Fortunately for the Jets, their most impressive move of all may have been securing backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Fresh off the heels of a stint with Gotham rival Giants, Taylor yet again proved his ability to run a new offense with limited weaponry. Over a three-game stretch in relief of Daniel Jones, the prior-sulking Giants narrowly lost to the Eagles by eight, the Rams by one, and even beat the Eagles by 17. Across these games, Taylor threw for over 295 twice and accounted for 100 rushing yards, all while throwing predominantly to Wan’Dale Robinson.
If Taylor’s number is called this season (god forbid), he will capitalize on his opportunity and keep the Jets wings somewhat steady. Regardless, failure to reach the playoffs and likely win a game in said playoffs could be a quick departure for all involved at the highest level.
Buffalo Bills: Getting Over a Patrick-Sized Hump
Off the back of a devastating AFC divisional loss to the Chiefs that forced a significant rule change, the Buffalo Bills were largely viewed as a trendy Super Bowl pick going into the 2023 season. So, when Josh Allen led the team to a blowout victory over the just-crowned Super Bowl Champion Rams on TNF to kick the season off, the offseason narrative seemed justified. Two years later, however, the Bills still failed to deliver on these lofty expectations.
2023 marked the worst year in the McDermott-Allen marriage. Despite terrorizing teams on the ground to an almost historic degree in 2023, Allen threw the ball with uncharacteristic disinterest. The proof: his 29 passing touchdowns and 19 interceptions were the worst totals since Allen’s second year as a starter. Entering the playoffs as a dark horse, the Bills yet again fulfilled their annual fate as division conference fodder for Mahomes.
While Josh Allen is anchored to the Bills for many years to come, the same can’t and shouldn’t be said for McDermott. The defensive-minded head coach has built his fair share of top defenses across his tenure, but now, at the most crucial time, the unit looks set for a new cast. The loss of the ever-reliable safety duo Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer means new guys will have to step up as leaders.
Brandon Beane entered the offseason with the goal of remedying the team’s salary cap issues. Much of the team’s depth went out the door, and again, Beane failed to provide Allen with premier pass catchers. Diggs is coming off his worst yardage and touchdown totals since becoming a Bill, and Gabe Davis’s failure to provide any sort of consistency guaranteed he wouldn’t be on the team past this year. While Curtis Samuel is surely an upgrade, the Bills’ stable of pass catchers still leaves a lot to be desired.
With the defense losing mainstay safeties, the Bills lack the time and picks to surround megastar Allen with an adequate supporting cast. Failure to draft a blue-chip WR prospect, another jump from budding tight end Kincaid, and a better-coached defense, the Bills could be heading for a roster rehaul should they fail to ameliorate their division-round exit next season.
Dallas Cowboys: Time to Pay
Jerry Jones emphatically exclaimed that the team was never going all in on this free agency class, instead opting to save cap space to pay in-house stars CeeDee Lamb, Micah Parsons, and Dak Prescott. Sure enough, a mostly quiet free agency period means the Cowboys are running it back with more or less the same roster as last season.
Owners of the 24th pick, the Cowboys have more holes to fill than they would like. The departure of All-Pro Tyron Smith means the offensive line should be the Cowboys priority in the draft and in free agency if it isn’t already too late. With no offensive additions to date, coupled with the departure of Tony Pollard, Prescott will be working with his lightest offensive cast to date. You’d hope the team would have been more aggressive in pursuing talent in free agency, especially considering their dearth of picks.
With the salary cap rising exponentially due to lucrative TV deals and revenue streams, the Cowboys face escalating costs for maintaining their superstar trio. The three have been together for three years now, the highlight being a 12-19 division-round loss to the Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers in 2021. Not very impressive.
You either love or hate him, but you can’t deny Prescott’s most recent season was great on paper. The Mississippi St. alum led the league in passing touchdowns and was third in passing yards while throwing only 9 INTs. Perhaps a worrying sign is that 7/11 of those picks came in losses, including two dreadful ones in the Wildcard Game against the Packers.
CeeDee Lamb has increased his receptions, yards, and TD totals in each of his four seasons. Lamb’s most recent line of 135 receptions, 1750 yards, and 12 TDs, all significant career highs, officially cements Lamb as one of the league’s premier wideouts. Lamb’s chemistry with Prescott continues to evolve, providing a promising outlook for the top end of the Cowboys’ passing game.
The Brandin Cooks experiment was more of a miss than a hit last season, and the Cowboys should actively search for another playmaker to complement Lamb, either in the slot or outside.
A year younger than Lamb and equally ascending as a face of the league, Micah Parsons will look to earn more than 32 million per year on his next contract, the highest sum all-time for a defensive player. A first-team All-Pro in all of his first three professional seasons, it’s likely that any type of record-setting contract he signs now will look like a bargain a few years later.
Failure to overcome the division round and reach their first NFC Championship game in 30 years will see the removal of Mike McCarthy, questioning of Prescott’s as the Cowboy’s long-term starter, and the possible entertainment of god-offers for Parsons and Lamb. The stakes are high for the Cowboys, as their window of opportunity with their current core may be closing sooner than expected.
Chicago Bears: Eberflus All In
The Chicago Bears can’t be going all in… right? Well, moves like giving up a 2nd round pick to sign and overpay Montez Sweat, sending the Chargers a 4th for a likely one-year rental of Keenan Allen, and trading Justin Fields suggest Matt Eberflus sees a path for the Bears to win the division this season. At the midpoint of last season, however, there was a real chance Eberflus wasn’t going to make it through the campaign.
Winning five out of their last eight, the Bears left a good taste in our mouths heading into the offseason. Therefore, it’s easy to forget their 2-7 start, during which fans and writers alike called for Eberflus to be fired and labeled the Bears the worst team in the league. A closer look at the games, and of course, hindsight, shows that three of the Bears’ early losses under Fields came to teams that would go on to win at least one playoff game.
When Fields returned to the lineup in Week 11, odds were still high that the Bears’ own draft pick would fall in the top three (they also own the Panthers pick). Instead, thanks to significantly more consistent play from Fields, the team still mathematically had a chance to make the playoffs in Week 18.
The decision to maintain Fields as the starter and use draft picks to build up the roster versus taking Caleb Williams with the priceless 1st pick was undoubtedly the biggest Eberflus and GM Ryan Poles made in their careers. In choosing the latter, Eberflus conceded that Williams gives the organization a chance to improve on their 7-10 record and himself the best chance to keep his job.
This draft’s ‘generational can’t-miss prospect Caleb Williams’s physical and mental tools should see him thrive immediately. Pairing Allen via trade with established stud DJ Moore and free-agent additions D’Andre Swift and Gerald Everett, Eberflus, and Poles are giving Williams a supporting cast Fields could only dream of.
I see only two endings to the Bears 2024 season. A widely unexpected division title and a chance to win a playoff game. On the flip side, there’s a chance they have a season with less than six wins, resulting in a complete coaching cleanout.
