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After a blitz start to 2024 NFL free agency, the dust has finally settled, and all contracts have finally been signed (suspiciously quickly). This year’s free agency produced one of the most exciting running back rearrangements in recent memory, leaving fantasy managers salivating at the sight of stars in new homes. I’ve tasked myself with projecting how productive free agency’s biggest movers will be in fantasy football next season.
With dozens of running backs changing teams this offseason, I’ve drawn the line on guys I think merit draft consideration in 10-team 0.5 PPR scoring. Players will be ordered by contract size to help the reader visualize the free agency market. On top of that, I will assign a player’s stock as up or down based on the general consensus of the player’s value post-signing.
Stock Up: Josh Jacobs
LV -> GB
2023: 37 Rec - 267 Carries - 1,111 Total Yards - 6 Total TDS
2024 Projection: 40 Rec - 280 Carries - 1,450 Total Yards - 9 Total TDS
The trend of Josh Jacobs sandwiching strong seasons between massive letdowns continued last season. In 13 games, Jacobs averaged a career-low 3.5 yards per carry while scoring touchdowns in just under half of his games. Fantasy managers who used anywhere from a 3rd to 5th-round pick last year (remember Jacobs entered the season injured) will likely never draft him again. For people like me, who had Jacobs in 2022, the memory of his league-leading 1600 rushing yards and 1st overall fantasy finish is still fresh. Historical data suggests Jacobs’s stock always rebounds.
The Packers represent the strongest offense Jacobs has played on to date. The threat of Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and even Tucker Kraft means teams will have to ease off Jacobs’ box. The decision to release Aaron Jones means Adam Stenavic thinks Jacobs can give the Packers a new dimension. I’m betting on Jacobs to bounce back on an ascending offense, with the potential to finish somewhere from RB6-10.
Stock Up: Saquon Barkley
NYG -> PHI
2023: 41 Rec - 247 Carries - 1,240 Total Yards - 10 Total TDS
2024 Projection: 38 Rec - 265 Carries - 1,650 Total Yards - 11 Total TDS
Saquon Barkley’s three-year $37.75 million deal to join rival Philadelphia Eagles officially ends his everlasting contract saga. While the Giants were reluctant to sign Barkley to a long-term deal, the Eagles didn’t hesitate, adding yet another fierce offensive feather to their cap. Under new general manager Kellen Moore, expect a more balanced offense that uses motion, play action, and deep posts/slants to set up an effective run game.
From a fantasy point of view, let’s try not to overthink this move. Like Jacobs, Barkley now finds himself on one of the NFL’s elite offenses, with more opportunities to score touchdowns than ever. Howie Roseman labeled Barkley “a special player {...} a guy who can touch the ball 300 times a year”. Barring injury, I expect Barkley to produce monster numbers with career-high efficiency. Considering many took Barkley in the first round last year as a Giant, I have no problem taking Barkley again in that range. Give me Barkley as the 2024 RB3 over Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Stock Down: De’Andre Swift
PHI -> CHI
2023: 39 Rec - 229 Carries - 1,250 Total Yards - 6 Total TDS
2024 Projection: 45 Rec - 205 Carries - 1,150 Total Yards - 5 Total TDS
Having drafted De’Andre Swift at the top of the second round two years ago, I stayed clear last year. Halfway through the season, I looked to have made a grave mistake. At his midseason peak, fantasy analysts ranked Swift as a top-five back, and he performed as such on occasion, unfortunately for Swift, as the Eagles offense veered off the rails towards the end of the season, as did his role. A notoriously elusive pass-catching back, Swift saw more than two catches just once in his last eight games after achieving that total in 5 ⁄ 8 heading into the bye.
Many expect Swift to explode this year on the Bears but I’m a little more skeptical. With Caleb Williams inevitably coming through the door, I expect the Bears to flow primarily through the passing game. At USC, Trojan backs rarely tallied more than 10 carries a game. Incumbent Bear backs Khalil Herbert, and Roshon Johsnon are no slouches and you should expect them to eat into Swift’s early game and third down duties.
Chicago inked Swift to a pretty decent contract, so I do expect him to start the season as the featured back. I’ll be happy to see another fantasy manager take Swift in the 3rd-4th round come draft season.
Stock Up: Tony Pollard
DAL -> TEN
2023: 55 Rec - 252 Carries - 1,300 Total Yards - 6 Total TDS
2024 Projection: 60 Rec - 270 Carries - 1,450 Total Yards - 8 Total TDS
Tony Pollard piloted a backfield without longtime running mate Zeke Elliot for the first time in his NFL career. From the outside looking in, Pollard's 1300 total yards and 55 catches sound like a great season. Pollard owners like myself, however, felt massively let down on their likely early second-round investment. After a historically efficient 2022 season, Pollard came crashing down to average in 2023. Which version of Pollard will we see in 2024? The answer, of course, is somewhere in the middle.
It’s easy to forget Pollard’s 2022 season ended at the hands of the now-banned hip-drop tackle. Over a year removed from the injury, I expect to see Pollard juice and anger more reminiscent of his campaign from two years ago. The Titans have been quietly surrounding second-year quarterback Will Levis with talent this offseason, so don’t sleep on the offense taking a sizable step. The team moved quickly to acquire Pollard in free agency, and the guaranteed money suggests he’ll start the season as the lead back with every opportunity to fend off Tyjae Spears.
Stock Up: Derrick Henry
TEN -> BAL
2023: 28 Rec - 280 Carries - 1,380 Total Yards - 12 Total TDS
2024 Projection: 20 Rec - 270 Carries - 1,550 Total Yards - 13 Total TDS
Have you ever seen a player look more natural in a new jersey than Derrick Henry donning that rich purple? Almost everyone penciled in Henry to join the Ravens this offseason, and sure enough, it happened. Despite featuring on some sub-par offenses, no running back has been more dominant than Henry over the past half-decade. Now, the bell-cow joins the run-heaviest offense in the league, which promises Henry another year of significant usage and touchdown opportunity.
Henry was the Titans offense in 2023, so I do see a slight dip in overall touches as he joins a unit with more weapons. At the same time, I believe Henry has every opportunity to be far more efficient with his touches. The four-headed attack of Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Keaton Mitchell, and Lamar Jackson led the league in rushing by a significant margin in 2023 (2,660). With Edwards’ departure to LA, expect Mitchell to keep defenses guessing as a complement to Henry. The Ravens have a true one for the first time since Ray Rice, so I expect much of this production to funnel onto Henry’s plate. I see an RB5-8 finish in Henry's range of outcomes.
Stock Down: Joe Mixon
CIN -> HOU
2023: 52 Rec - 257 Carries - 1,400 Total Yards - 12 Total TDS
2024 Projection: 40 Rec - 260 Carries - 1,250 Total Yards - 8 Total TDS
Last season, Joe Mixon delivered one of his best fantasy finishes, primarily fueled by a high volume and involvement in the passing game. Despite these pluses, Mixon's efficiency should raise a red flag. According to PFF, Mixon ranked 36th in yards per touch and 41st in breakaway run rate. Despite these numbers, barring the addition of a rookie, the Texans plan to feature Mixon as their RB1 in 2024.
The Texans will provide Mixon with the best offensive line he’s had in his career, which helped Devin Singletary deliver several explosive fantasy performances last season. Singletary’s emergence of 216 rushing attempts and 900 yards caught many by surprise. However, it’s worth noting that a significant portion of his carries (36%) and yards (43%) came in just three games.
While the Texans heavily relied on their running game last season, quarterback CJ Stroud’s performance suggests that the offense should lean more on the passing attack. Ultimately, I anticipate Mixon owners feeling frustrated due to a lack of week-to-week consistency. While I like Mixon’s NFL fit with the Texans, I will be looking elsewhere for an RB2 in the middle rounds.
Stock Up: Austin Ekeler
LAC -> WAS
2023: 51 Rec - 179 Carries - 1,050 Total Yards - 6 Total TDS
2024 Projection: 75 Rec - 130 Carries - 1,000 Total Yards - 9 Total TDS
Austin Ekeler’s short tenure as fantasy’s premiere pass-catching TD stacking back came to a screeching halt last season. Much of what made Ekeler a top-three fantasy back completely disappeared from his game in 2023. Gone were the two touchdown and eight-plus reception games. Running as though he had a piano on his back, Ekeler’s 46th and 36th rank in missed tackles and yards after contact were an eyesore. After returning from an ankle sprain in week 1, the Chargers were forced to rely on Ekeler following a flurry of offensive injuries.
Instead of landing a lead role, Ekeler opted (and we don’t know how many options he really had) to join new head coach Dan Quin on the Commanders. In Washington, Ekeler will operate in his first true timeshare since the Melvin Gordon days. I may be going out on a limb here, but I think a timeshare with bruiser Brian Robinson is exactly what Ekeler needs at this point of his career.
Despite finishing dead last in running back attempts last season, the Commanders threw to their backs early and often. Antonio Gibson and Robinson combined for over 100 targets; I fully expect Ekeler to consume most of these touches. Ekeler has every opportunity to be a check-down merchant for the next young Washington quarterback and finish as a viable RB2 in PPR formats.
Stock Down: Aaron Jones
GB -> MIN
2023: 30 Rec - 142 Carries - 890 Total Yards - 3 Total TDS
2024 Projection: 35 Rec - 200 Carries - 1,100 Yards - 5 Total TDS
The Vikings certainly know what they’re getting in Aaron Jones, whom they played twice a year for the last half-decade. Jones’ failure to stay healthy and overall decline in play meant the Packers had no problem seeing him out the door this offseason. Can one team’s trash become another team’s treasure? Unfortunately, I believe the best of Jones is behind him.
The Vikings ranked 10th in total yards last season, however very little of this production came from the running back position. Minnesota backs tallied a league-low seven touchdowns, the 4th fewest attempts and yards per game. Yes, Jones finished last season with five straight 100-yard games but failed to top 53 yards in all but one of the previous eight.
Jones also got very little money, suggesting the Vikings aren’t fully committed to giving him full reign of the backfield. There’s no doubt someone in your league will be intrigued enough to take Jones as their RB2, but I’d rather swing for the fences with Javonte Williams, Zamir White, or even Ekeler in the later rounds.
