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The Dallas Cowboys believed the 2023 season would finally end their 28-year Super Bowl drought. Dak Prescott was a legitimate MVP candidate, Cedee Lamb was playing like the best wide receiver in football, and Dallas boasted a top-10 defense. Mike McCarthy was finally going to get this team over the hump after finishing 12-5 for the third time in four seasons. In classic Cowboys fashion, they came up short in the playoffs. Their 48-32 loss to the Green Bay Packers was a complete meltdown for a team that had high expectations.  

The Cowboys looked unprepared to play in this game. Prescott and Lamb were never able to get in rhythm while the defense was in shambles trying to slow down Jordan Love and the Packers offense. The feeling all year was that McCarthy needed to get the Cowboys to an NFC Championship game to keep his job. The last time Dallas was in an NFC Championship game was 1995. 

Instead, McCarthy couldn't even get his team out of the first round, let alone against his former team who parted ways with him because he was falling well short of expectations. Not that the Packers brass needed to see this, but McCarthy’s Cowboys imploding is extra validation that they made the right choice to move on.Team owner Jerry Jones couldn’t even fathom what had just happened to his prized Dallas Cowboys. “This seems like the most painful [playoff loss] because we all had such great expectations and we had hope for this team,” Jones said. “This is beyond my comprehension.”

"This seems like the most painful [playoff loss] because we all had such great expectation and we had hope for this team."

- Cowboys owner Jerry Jones following loss to Packers pic.twitter.com/NbTOpkbaju

Yet on January 17th, Jones announced McCarthy will return as head coach. The decision to give McCarthy another year is a major mistake. With relatively healthy teams, McCarthy’s four years in Dallas have resulted in a 42-25 (62.7%-win percentage) record in the regular season, which is the highest career win percentage of any coach in the team's history. Sadly this success has not carried over in the postseason, as the Cowboys have a 1-3 record then. 

McCarthy has had time to develop the right system and personnel for success. After being eliminated from the postseason last year, the Cowboys changed its offense by firing offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who now works for the Philadelphia Eagles. 

The thought process was to abandon Moore's offense, which had been ranked among the top ten, three times in the past four years, in favor of the one McCarthy utilized in Green Bay with Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Yet the result didn’t change. If anything, it hurt the Cowboys who at least made it to the divisional round with Moore calling plays. 

Quarterback play is not an excuse in this situation. Prescott has been reliable, with this past season arguably being his best. The Cowboys defense has been among the best since hiring Dan Quinn as defensive coordinator in 2021. The problem with Dallas bringing back McCarthy is that it’s hard to envision how the team can improve. They won’t have high draft picks in this year's draft, and many players are due for new contracts or extensions.

Prescott, Lamb, and star pass rusher Michah Parsons are at the top of the list. In the aftermath of free agency, the Cowboys failed to retain core players such as running back Tony Pollard, center Tyler Biadasz, and offensive tackle Tyron Smith. The only significant outside free agent they added was linebacker Eric Kendricks. 

To make matters worse, Quinn departed to become the new head coach of the Washington Commanders back in February. To fill their vacancy at defensive coordinator Dallas hired former Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer. While Zimmer is highly regarded for producing good defenses, he's been out of the league for two years.

The departure of Quinn could ultimately cause the defense to regress with Zimmer as the new play-caller. This issue is further compounded by the fact that McCarthy is in the last year of his current contract, which makes the margin of error smaller for the Zimmer-led defense. 

This issue could be fixed if the Cowboys rework McCarthy's contract with an extra year if he meets or succeeds expectations. Instead, Jones wants McCarthy to prove his worth and earn his next contract.  One could argue that the current crop of available coaches wouldn’t do much better than McCarthy. In some cases, this is true with coaches without head coaching experience. 

Then there's former eight-time Super Bowl champion and former New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. Belichick's resume speaks for itself. No coach has experienced as much success as him. In recent years, without Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady, Belichick’s Patriots teams have been underwhelming.

Regardless, getting Belichick, who is regarded as the greatest coach of all time, would be a significant upgrade. In the end, Jones chose to pass on this opportunity, instead of giving McCarthy one more chance. 

Jones is banking on McCarthy to dispel the Cowboys’ postseason demons. It’s a big risk to take, especially with it looking like Belichick will sit out this year after having little interest from other teams. 

Jones has essentially put McCarthy in a metaphorical guillotine with the blade likely to inch closer and closer after each loss. My advice to Cowboys fans is to prepare for the worst and expect lots of Belichick rumors throughout the year. Another chapter of Dallas Cowboys playoff embarrassment is on the horizon.