The Biggest Mistake Each Team Could Make in the Top 10 of the NFL Draft
With the NFL draft only a month away, anticipation mounts as fans eagerly await the league's annual talent infusion. Behind the scenes, general managers are madly orchestrating their draft strategies, hoping to navigate the delicate balance between potential and peril with their premiere picks. As smokescreens divert and rumors swirl, the top 10 picks loom large, setting the stage for the draft's trajectory.
In this analysis, we delve into the high-stakes landscape of the NFL's premier selections - the draft's first ten picks - with the goal of surfacing some of the most dangerous missteps organizations may take. Here are the biggest mistakes each team in the top ten should avoid come draft day.
Pick 1 - Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams status as a Chicago Bear is already sealed, he may as well already be listed as the teams QB1 on their official depth chart. If the Bears do anything else with this pick - including a earth-shattering god-offer for Justin Herbert - they will look like lunatics. Let's not waste any more time on this pick.
Pick 2 - Washington Commanders
The draft truly kicks off at pick two and Commander General Manager Adam Peters. When the Commanders sent Sam Howell to the Seahawks, it all but guaranteed the team would be going QB with this pick. The question is which one…
The odds have shifted massively from UNC’s Drake Maye to Heisman winner Jayden Daniels over the last month. Reports from the owners meeting last weekend suggest Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy may even be considered, with his DraftKings odds surging from +2500 to +500 on him going second overall as of writing I’m here to tell you there’s one right answer, and two wrong ones.
New OC Kliff Kingsbury has a history of working with highly athletic mobile QBs, a profile only one of these three guys fits into. Described as a special talent and the clear QB2 by former quarterback and current talent evaluator Chris Simms, Daniels’ is a machine throwing the football with the potential to challenge Fields and Jackson as the NFL premiere running QB.
Unlike Maye and McCarthy, Daniels has traits and plays with a level of consistency that would make him the first overall pick in most drafts. His pro day didn’t disappoint, and the Patriots sending nine personnel to watch suggests they wouldn't think twice if the former Tiger falls to the third pick. Passing on Daniels, who plays a generational brand of football the Commanders haven't seen since the likes of RGIII, would be a grave mistake.
Pick 3 - New England Patriots
For the first time in a quarter century, the Patriots will be without GOAT Head Coach Bill Belichick. Under the leadership of first time HC Jerod Mayo - who openly admitted he wasn’t sure if he would make a good coach - the organization should be prepared for a multi-year rebuild. While almost every mock drafter has the Patriots making it a QB turkey to start the draft, I’m here arguing that could be the franchises biggest misstep.
For a team with so many holes on both sides of the ball, I’d be worried if the Patriots settled for the third best QB in the class. Likely Maye or McCarthy, a rookie QB would be joining one of the league's least convincing offenses. Between Kendrick Bourne, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Demario Douglas and Tyquan Thornton there's a real lack of blue-chip talent. Whereas the Bears and Commanders added pieces this offseason in anticipation of a rookie QB coming through the door, the Patriots only notable skill position addition was Antonio Gibson.
To me, a reunion with steady QB Jacoby Brisset signifies the team is more likely to trade the pick, draft the first WR, or get cute with Joe Alt than reaching for a QB project at 3. For the sake of their roster, I would strongly advise Mayo and co to stay clear of the quarterback position.
Pick 4 - Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals have two things going for them: a star franchise quarterback, and a promising young head coach. Otherwise, the team has glaring holes at widereiver, edge rusher, cornerback, and most of their defensive and offensive line. While HC John Gagnon showed last year his superb scheme can mask sub-par talent, it’s time for GM Monti Ossenfort to give Gagnon better players to work with on both sides of the ball. Therefore, if the 4th overall pick in the draft is an Arizona Cardinal, a great mistake has occurred.
According to DraftKings, Marvin Harrison Jr. is the favorite to be the 4th overall pick (-150), and significant favorite to be the first non-QB drafted (-500). I’m not fully convinced of Harrison being worthy of such a valuable asset, especially considering the greater structure of the Cardinals roster. Yes, Harrison would be a lethal WR1 for Murray, but without adequate protection Harrison won’t make it far downfield before pressure arrives. Plus, history tells us great WRs can be found in the second round. I think the Cardinals and GM Ossenfort agree with me here, and the 4th pick will not be a Cardinal.
Pick 5 - Los Angeles Chargers
I challenge you to find me a mock that doesn’t involve the Chargers trading this pick to the Vikings. After an incredibly underwhelming season and a fire sale at WR, analysts insist the Chargers best route to contention next season is trading out of this pick to acquire a quantity of assets over a quality one.
For me, the Chargers only really need one player to be firing on all cylinders to remain competitive. So, with this pick, I would advise quality over quantity. Instead of trading the pick, I would love to see the Chargers add a true electric WR1, one they can nurture and allow to grow alongside their superstar QB. I think pairing Malik Nabers or Harrison with Herbert would mask some of the team's other offensive deficiencies. Again, a good GM can find a quality WR in round two, but I think Herbert needs something a little better than a quality WR. Take your blue chip WR prospect, and don’t trade the pick!
Pick 6 - New York Giants
Out of all the teams drafting in the top ten, I am least optimistic about the future of the New York Giants. While the team has been aggressive this offseason, it's not in the way you’d imagine. The franchise gutted most of their coaches in an effort by GM Brad Shoen and HC Brian Daboll to reset the team culture.
Replacing significant 2023 contributors Saquon Barkley and Tyrod Taylor with Devin Singletary and Drew Lock while making no other significant additions is highly concerning considering the offense ranked 28th last season in total yards. The highlight of the offseason was trading a second and fifth rounder for pro-bowler outside linebacker Brian Burns. Only a year ago, the Panthers supposedly rejected a Rams package including two first round picks, so the Giants definitely got value here. Burns joins an ascending defense that should keep the team from picking in the top five in a years time.
After a series of low-profile additions on both sides of the line, the Giants have to go with a skilled position player at 6. Whether it be their WR of choice or top TE prospect Brock Bowers, failure to give Daniel Jones - who will be given one final chance to save his Giants career - a weapon, would leave the offense stranded in mediocrity.
Pick 7 - Tennessee Titans
After a fascinating offseason highlighted by the commitment to second year Will Levis as their 2024 starting QB, I will be predicting the Tennessee Titans to surprise people next season. Like the Patriots, the Titans shed the skin for which they have been recognized for the longest time this offseason. For the first time since 2019 the team won’t run through QB Tannehill, RB Henry, and HC Vrabel.
New offensive-minded HC Brian Callahan has been labeled the QB whisperer, one of my favorite archetypes. Having helped Carr, Stafford and Burrow to career seasons, there is an internal feeling he can help Levis realize his potential. At seven, I expect Callahan and GM Ran Carthon to maintain their offseason identity of bolstering the offense. Like the Pats, I hope the Titans don’t settle for the third best option at the position they’re targeting. If Nabers and Harrison are off the board, I think seven is too high for the likes of Rome Odunze and Brian Thomas. Instead, Bowers or the best OL available would make for better value. My advice to Callahan, stay true to the offense, but don't reach.
Pick 8 - Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons were anointed winners of the offseason when they landed former Vikings QB Kirk Cousins. Many, like myself, saw the Falcons as a sneaky Wildcard team the year before, however the performances of average-joe QB Desmond Ridder capped the team's potential. Now with Cousins at the wheel, the sky's the limit for the offense.
Don’t sleep on the additions of WR's Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore (I’ve always thought highly of the Boilermaker), and with speedier, more dynamic outside weapons we may finally see a statistical surge from TE Kyle Pitts.
Trio HC Morris, OC Robinson, and DC Lake all came over from the Rams this offseason. While the new OC has every opportunity to succeed with his current offensive cast, I have no doubt Jimmy Lake is desperate for more defesnive pieces. Falcons willl hopefully have already identified a blue-chip defesnive player that can step in and elevate play from the get-go.
Pick 9 - Chicago Bears
Out of the ten first picks, I genuinely believe the Bears, holders of the 1st and 9th selections, have the lowest chance of making a genuine mistake. Following an offseason of offensive boltering for franchise savior Caleb Williams, it only makes sense that the Bears go defense here, right? The mass majority of drafts have them filling a roster hole at EDGE with FSU's Jared Verse or Alabama’s Dallas Turner. With only the Falcons likely to go defense before them, there's a chance Bears’ top rated defender is still on the board. And if they’re not, I have no problem with them adding another offensive piece to help Caleb Williams.
While the smartest option may be OT, the team could benefit from the services of another young WR. Keenan Allen will likely only be on the team for a year, and while they have two WR1s, they lack any real threat behind them. Nabers and Harrison will be off the board by this point, I like Brian Thomas Jr. as the WR3 in the class, but nine would be a tad high for him. If the team does want a WR, their biggest mistake could be reaching for a guy they really like instead of trading down to the teens.
Pick 10 - New York Jets
Once GM Joe Douglas secured the trifecta signings of OL starters, Simpson, Smith and Moses, he afforded the team a newfound flexibility at the 10th spot. Before free agency, the Jets were locked in to take the best OL on the board at ten, and they still very well may do so. Other potential options being floated: WR, TE, or trading out of the pick. With such a complete roster, there is only one real mistake the Jets can make with this selection…upsetting Aaron Rodgers.
As a Jets fan myself, I have deeply pondered the team's options at 10. My gut says Brock Bowers - although I did love Jace Amaro once upon a time - who would be a massive upgrade on current TE Tyler Conklin. With so few holes to fill, however, and the retirement of Rodgers a few years away, I’m intrigued by the prospect of drafting a QB to sit behind Rodgers. Crucially, the Jets shouldn’t be.
Jordan Love was the nail in Rodgers Packers’ coffin, and while this Jets situation is wildly different, they most proceed with caution. The last thing you want to do is poke the bear, so please, please make sure Rodgers gives the green light on the pick.