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With the NFL draft only a month away, anticipation mounts as fans eagerly await the league’s annual talent infusion. Behind the scenes, general managers are madly orchestrating their draft strategies, hoping to navigate the delicate balance between potential and peril with their premiere picks. As smokescreens divert and rumors swirl, the top 10 picks loom, setting the stage for the draft’s trajectory.
In this analysis, we look at the draft’s first ten picks to surface some of the most dangerous missteps organizations may take. Here are the biggest mistakes each team in the top ten should avoid come draft day.
Pick 1 - Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams’s status as a Chicago Bear is already sealed, and he may as well be listed as the team’s QB1 on their official depth chart. If the Bears do anything else with this pick, including a mind-boggling trade for Justin Herbert, they will look like lunatics. Let’s not waste any more time on this pick.
Pick 2 - Washington Commanders
The draft truly kicks off at pick two with Commander’s General Manager Adam Peters. When the Commanders sent Sam Howell to the Seahawks, it all but guaranteed the team would be going quarterback with this pick. The question is which one…
Over the last month, the odds have shifted massively from UNC’s Drake Maye to Heisman winner Jaden Daniels. Reports from the owner’s meeting last weekend suggest Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy may even be considered, with his DraftKings odds surging from +2500 to +500 to go second overall. I’m here to tell you there’s one right answer and two wrong ones.
Kliff Kingsbury has a history of working with highly athletic, mobile quarterbacks, a profile only one of these three guys fits into. Described as a special talent by former quarterback and current talent evaluator Chris Simms, Daniels is a mechanical machine throwing the football with the potential to challenge Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson as the NFL’s premier running quarterback.
Unlike Maye and McCarthy, Daniels has traits and plays with a level of consistency that would make him the first overall pick in most drafts. His pro day didn’t disappoint, and the Patriots sending nine personnel to watch suggests they wouldn’t think twice if the former Tiger falls to the third pick. Passing on Daniels, who plays a generational brand of football the Commanders haven’t seen since the likes of Robert Griffin III, would be a grave mistake.
Pick 3 - New England Patriots
The Patriots will be without GOAT Head Coach Bill Belichick for the first time in a quarter century. Under the leadership of first-time head coach Jerod Mayo, who openly admitted he wasn’t sure he would make a good coach, the organization should be prepared for a multi-year rebuild. While almost every mock drafter has the Patriots making it a quarterback turkey to start the draft, I’m here arguing that could be the franchise’s biggest misstep.
For a team with so many holes on both sides of the ball, I’d be worried if the Patriots settled for the third-best QB in the class. Likely, Drake Maye or McCarthy, a rookie QB, would be joining one of the league’s least-talented offenses. There’s a lack of blue-chip talent between Kendrick Bourne, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Demario Douglas, and Tyquan Thornton. Whereas the Bears and Commanders added pieces this offseason in anticipation of a rookie QB coming through the door, the Patriot’s only skill position addition was Antonio Gibson.
To me, a reunion with steady quarterback Jacoby Brissett signifies the team is more likely to trade the pick, draft the first wide receiver, or get cute with Joe Alt than reach for a quarterback project at three. For the sake of their roster, I would strongly advise Mayo and company to stay clear of the quarterback position.
Pick 4 - Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals have two things going for them: a star franchise quarterback and a promising young head coach. Otherwise, the team has glaring holes at the wide receiver, edge rusher, cornerback, and most of their defensive and offensive line. While Jonathan Gagnon showed that his superb scheme can mask sub-par talent last year, it’s time for Monti Ossenfort to give Gagnon more talent to work with on both sides of the ball. Therefore, if the 4th overall pick in the draft is an Arizona Cardinal, a great mistake has occurred.
According to DraftKings, Marvin Harrison Jr. is the favorite to be the 4th overall pick (-150) and a significant favorite to be the first non-quarterback drafted (-500). I’m not fully convinced that Harrison is worthy of such a valuable asset, especially considering the greater structure of the Cardinals roster. Yes, Harrison would be a lethal WR1 for Kyler Murray, but without adequate protection, Harrison won’t make it far downfield. Plus, history tells us great wide receivers can be found in the second round. I think the Cardinals and Ossenfort agree with me here, and the 4th pick will not be a Cardinal.
Pick 5 - Los Angeles Chargers
I challenge you to find me a mock that doesn’t involve the Chargers trading this pick to the Vikings. After an incredibly underwhelming season and a fire sale at wide receiver, analysts insist the Charger’s best route to contention next season is trading out of this pick to acquire several assets over a quality one.
For me, the Chargers only really need one player to be firing on all cylinders to remain competitive for a playoff spot. So, with this pick, I would advise quality over quantity. Instead of trading the pick, I would love to see the Chargers add a true electric WR1, one they can nurture and allow to grow alongside Justin Herbert. I think pairing Malik Nabers or Harrison with Herbert would mask some of the team’s other deficiencies. Again, a good general manager can find a quality receiver in round two, but I think Herbert needs something a little better than that. Take your blue-chip receiver prospect, and don’t trade the pick!
Pick 6 - New York Giants
Out of all the teams drafting in the top ten, I am least optimistic about the future of the New York Giants. While the team has been aggressive this offseason, it’s not in the way you’d imagine. The franchise gutted most of its coaches in an effort by Brad Schoen and Brian Daboll to reset the team culture.
Replacing significant contributors Saquon Barkley and Tyrod Taylor with Devin Singletary and Drew Lock while making no other significant additions is highly concerning, considering the offense ranked 28th last season in total yards.
The highlight of the offseason was trading a second and fifth-rounder for pro-bowler outside linebacker Brian Burns. Only a year ago, the Panthers supposedly rejected a Rams package, including two first-round picks, so the Giants got value here. After a series of low-profile additions on both sides of the ball, the Giants have to go with a skilled position player at 6. Whether it be a receiver or Brock Bowers, failure to give Daniel Jones, who will be given one final chance to save his Giants and potential NFL career, a weapon would leave the franchise stranded in mediocrity.
Pick 7 - Tennessee Titans
After a fascinating offseason highlighted by the commitment to second-year Will Levis as their 2024 starting quarterback, I predict the Tennessee Titans will surprise people next season. Like the Patriots, the Titans shed the skin for which they have been recognized for the longest time this offseason. For the first time since 2019, the team won’t run through Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and Mike Vrabel.
New offensive-minded head coach Brian Callahan falls under the quarterback whisperer’s archetype, having helped Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, and Joe Burrow to career seasons. At seven, I expect Callahan and Ran Carthon to maintain their offseason identity of bolstering the offense. Like the Patriots, I hope the Titans don’t settle for the third-best option at the position they’re targeting. If Nabers and Harrison are off the board, I believe seven is too high for the likes of Rome Odunze or Brian Thomas Jr. I think Bowers or the best offensive lineman available would make for better value. Without a sure-fire defensive prospect in this year’s class, I implore the Titans to stay on the offensive side of the ball with this pick.
Pick 8 - Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons were anointed offseason winners when they landed former Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins. Many, like myself, saw the Falcons as a sneaky Wildcard team the year before. However, the performances of average-joe (perhaps even that is generous) quarterback Desmond Ridder capped the team’s potential. Now, with Cousins at the wheel, the sky’s the limit for the offense.
Don’t sleep on the additions of Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore (I’ve always thought the Boilermaker was underrated). With speedier, more dynamic outside weapons, we may finally see a statistical surge from Kyle Pitts.
Raheem Morris, Zac Robinson, and Jimmy Lake all came over from the Rams this off-season. While Robinson has every opportunity to succeed with his offensive cast, the same can’t be said with Lake. With the 8th pick, the Falcons have hopefully identified a blue-chip prospect who can step in and boost the defense.
Pick 9 - Chicago Bears
Out of the ten first picks, I genuinely believe the Bears, holders of the 1st and 9th selections, have the lowest chance of making a genuinely harmful mistake. Following an offseason of offensive bolstering, it only makes sense that the Bears go defense here, right? Most drafts have them filling a roster hole at EDGE with FSU’s Jared Verse or Alabama’s Dallas Turner. With only the Falcons likely to go defense before them, there’s a chance the Bears’ top-rated defender is still on the board. And if they’re not, I have no problem with them adding another offensive piece to help Caleb Williams.
While the smartest option may be an offensive tackle, the team could benefit from the services of another wide receiver. Keenan Allen will likely only be on the team for a year, and while they have two WR1s, they lack any real threat behind them. If the team does want a receiver, their biggest mistake could be reaching for a guy they really like instead of trading down to the teens.
Pick 10 - New York Jets
Joe Douglas secured the trifecta signings of offensive line starters John Simpson, Tyron Smith, and Morgan Moses. By doing so, he afforded the team a newfound flexibility in the 10th spot. Before free agency, the Jets were locked in to take the best offensive lineman on the board at ten, and they still very well may do so. Other potential options are being floated: wide receiver, tight end, or trading out of the pick. With such a complete roster, there is only one real mistake the Jets can make with this selection…upsetting Aaron Rodgers.
As a Jets fan myself, I have deeply pondered the team’s options at 10. My gut says Brock Bowers although I did love Jace Amaro someone who would massively upgrade the current TE room. With so few holes to fill, however and the retirement of Rodgers a few years away, I’m intrigued by the prospect of drafting a quarterback at 10 to sit behind Rodgers. Crucially, the Jets shouldn’t be.
Jordan Love was the nail in Rodgers Packers’ coffin, and while this Jets situation is different, the team must proceed with caution. The last thing the Jets want to do is upset or alienate (pun intended) Rodgers, who’s yet to even complete a regular season game.
