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4. Carolina Panthers
2023 Record: 2-15
Five months before the first meaningful snap is taken, it already looks to be a safe bet that the Panthers will finish the 2024 season as one of the league’s worst teams. Despite a reasonably active free agency which has seen Carolina sign three-time Pro Bowl linebacker Jadeveon Clowney and trade for wide receiver Diontae Johnson, the Panthers do not currently possess a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Even if they did, this roster looks far too inept in talent to be fixed in a single offseason. First-time head coach Dave Canales has more than a fair share of work cut out for him.
The primary factor that will likely determine how long it will be before the Panthers return to respectability is their second-year quarterback Bryce Young, the man whom the Panthers surrendered two first-round picks and star receiver D.J. Moore for the rights to draft. If Young can continue to progress toward becoming the franchise player Carolina envisioned when they drafted him, their rebuild might be over a bit sooner. Until then, I don’t expect the Panthers to climb out of the NFC South basement.
3. New Orleans Saints
2023 Record: 9-8
The Saints are looking like the NFL’s poster child for being average. Questionable decisions such as retaining head coach Dennis Allen and quarterback Derek Carr, were met with a collective “why?” among fans and media alike. The additions of defensive end Chase Young and linebacker Willie Gay will help to sure up their already formidable defensive unit. However, none of their offseason moves will likely help them take the next step out of mediocrity.
Ever since the retirement of legendary quarterback Drew Brees, the Saints have been marred in average, missing the playoffs in each of the three seasons since. Nothing has changed to indicate an improvement in their fortunes in 2024, at least for right now.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2023 Record: 9-8
The three-time defending NFC South champions look to ride the momentum they gathered down the stretch last season, which saw them go 6-2 in December and January and route the Philadelphia Eagles 32-9 in the Wild Card Round. The Buccaneers two biggest offseason moves came in the decision to re-sign resurgent quarterback Baker Mayfield and superstar receiver Mike Evans. After that, it’s hard to see where Tampa has improved since the majority of their moves have been retaining their impending free agents.
The Bucs have won the division by default the last two seasons with an even record of 17-17. The NFC South should be tougher, if only by a little bit, in 2024, but that difference might be enough to close the marginal gap between Tampa and their pursuers. The biggest determiner on whether or not the Bucs can retain the division crown for yet another year is this: can Baker Mayfield maintain his career-best level of play from a year ago in 2024?
1. Atlanta Falcons
2023 Record: 7-10
The Falcons look to be the safest choice to win the NFC South in 2024 since they are the only one of the four teams that I can definitively say improved this offseason. Kirk Cousins is a massive upgrade at quarterback over Desmond Ridder. That change alone might be enough to propel Atlanta to the top in this mediocre division.
Let’s not forget that the Falcons have managed back-to-back 7-10 seasons, all the while having some of the worst quarterback play in the entire league. Cousins also managed more touchdown passes in eight games last year (18) than Desmond Ridder has had in his entire career (14).
Aside from the quarterback change, the Falcons have put together a potentially elite group of young offensive weapons, like running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London, and tight end Kyle Pitts. Vegas has even bought into the Falcons hype, with FanDuel listing them as the odds-on favorite to win the NFC South at -110. Atlanta is also given 13 to 1 odds to win the NFC and 30 to 1 odds to win the Super Bowl, both of which have seen drastic upticks since the Kirk Cousins signing took place several weeks ago.
