Explanation on Evals/Grading:
I’m only about 35 receivers into the 2024 receiver class but I feel pretty good about my top 1-15; So, I wanted to get a start on putting out my receiver rankings before it turns into information overload with all 50 all at once. To further break things up, I’ll be starting with wide receivers ranked 1-6 and will likely be putting out my evals on my wide receivers 7-12 later this week. For those new to my rankings, I wanted to give some reference for my rankings/grades:
- I typically don't factor in injury history. I also don't factor in "off-field issues" as there is often a lot of dispute among claims. So, unless there is something concrete like an arrest or video of a player committing a crime, I don’t think I can accurately evaluate this.
- I often value players that I see having a role in the NFL. In other words, I value players who are elite in one aspect to earn a role on the field. I also value players who are so solid at everything that this can justify them being on the field.
- For comps, I try to combine athletic testing, body composition, college production, and play style. I also wait until players are in the NFL for at least 3 years before comping them to a prospect. Sometimes, this excludes players I think could be great comps for prospects, but I think it’s important to see how they establish themselves in the NFL. I also skip players that I comped to other prospects within the past 3 years to reduce redundancy.
- For receivers, I grade on hands, route running, release, yards after catch potential, jump ball/contested catch ability, body control and ball tracking, athleticism/size/RAS, and future RAS is not a perfect system but this allows more consistency rather than arbitrarily assigning grades. For future role grading, I grade based on whether I can realistically see the player earning time on the field either for a specific skill or a well-rounded skillset.
- Maybe it’s because I enjoy teaching, but I use a grading system similar to a GPA system most United States schools use. So, if a player gets an A in Hands, that equals to a 4/4 in that area. If he gets a B, it equals a 3/4. A-, 3.67, B+ 3.33, etc.
- For overall grades, I take the average of everything. In terms of what the average means in terms of the player’s talent, I have it broken into future All-Pro, top tier prospect, good starter, good role player, may have a future role, needs improvement to contribute, unlikely to contribute, and likely not worthy rostering. The breakdown of the tiers and how the overall grades match are as follows:
-Future All-Pro= 4-3.5
-Top Tier Prospect= 3.49-3.25
-Good Starter= 3.24-3
-Good Role Player= 2.99-2.75
-May Have a Future Role= 2.74-2.5
-Needs Improvement to Contribute= 2.49-2.25
-Unlikely to Contribute= 2.24-2
-<2= Likely Not Worth Rostering
So with all of that out of the way, let’s get to the rankings!
Marvin Harrison Jr, Ohio State
Height: 6’3”; Weight: 209 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 21 years and 8 months
Class: Junior
Overall Grade: 3.62/4 (Future All-Pro)
Comp: Ceedee Lamb
Hands: A-
Route Running: A-
Release: A-
Yards After Catch Potential: B+
Jump Ball/Contested Catch: B+
Body Control/Ball Tracking: A
Future role: A
RAS: B+*
Strengths:
I’m not sure what to say about Marvin Harrison Jr. that hasn’t already been said. While I definitely will highlight his areas of improvement, some of the stuff I’ve read about him feels a bit too much like prospect fatigue. He is definitely that dude and a player that could justify being the #1 overall pick in a class that didn’t have the QB talent that the 2024 class has.
His ball tracking skills are exceptional as he is easily able to catch balls over his shoulder. He also has the best body control around the sideline and the best foot awareness in this class and in a long time. Close to the sideline, he can make quick, last-minute adjustments to balls to secure the catch.
He also has a diverse release package with a nice use of a stutter step and patience to get his defenders to bite and weave around them with his flexible hips. His quick feet and reaction skills allow him to beat his defender regardless of how they are aligned pre-snap. Past the initial point of contact, he can sometimes leave players in the dust even after they get good initial contact and can create such a big distance between him and his defender that you could think the defender played off coverage if you didn’t see the start of the play.
Once out on his route, he is a smooth route runner with quick acceleration and the hips to easily change direction. He also has long strides to eat cushions pretty easily and plays with a nice tempo to his routes to get defenders off balance or to bite and then move around them with ease. His cuts are quick and efficient leaving little chance for corners to keep up and he uses good head fakes to further throw them off.
He is also able to make almost unfair transitions. He can go downhill to cutting inside in a near instant and can also create separation downfield against man coverage with his body movement and timing. He also has great awareness of where to slow his route down to win against zone.
In non-contested catch situations, he consistently stretches his arms out to finish catches and has strong reliable hands. He uses good hand technique and can easily grab balls away from his frame and keep his momentum on the route to continue downfield and pick up extra yards. In space, he seems to have smooth acceleration and can get to full speed quickly. He can immediately transition from receiver to runner and his flexible hips allow him to get around more stiff defenders.
Also, despite his contested catch numbers, he can still show strong hands and finish catches despite having defenders right on top of him. This was especially impressive due to being the clear focal point of the passing offense and being surrounded by defenders at times. Finally, while he primarily was used out wide, he had a fair number of snaps from the slot and was also effective when asked to move in motion.
Areas of Improvement:
What holds him back for me from being the greatest receiving prospect ever and even in the past 10 years is related to his hands. While his hands are solid and I’m not concerned about them in the NFL, there were a number of times when he would go up to grab balls but went with underhand technique. I would really like to see him also be more aggressive and attack balls. There were a number of times when a corner or safety was on top of him and he was too willing to settle and let the ball come to him.
I think he can also still work to improve his positioning in jump ball situations to win more easily. Part of his contested catch rate being a bit lower was a number of times where he had poor body positioning and allowed the defender to get a cleaner pass break up. Also, it may have been due to playing with a transfer QB this year, but he can work to improve his timing when going up for jump balls as well and this sometimes contributed to him using underhand technique instead of overhand. I absolutely think he is a far superior player than him but some of these tendencies are part of what made Quentin Johnston limited as a jump ball player and affected his hands as well.
Also, he again didn’t have a red flag number of drops but he had a few more drops than previous years (which to be honest nobody would bat an eye at if it wasn’t MHJ). He is a pretty sufficient athlete and I don’t have concerns about him in the NFL but again, since we are nitpicking, he isn’t a dynamic athlete that likely won’t be taking the top off the defense. Also, he isn’t very creative in space and isn’t able to make guys miss in space very often despite his flexible hips.
With his frame, he doesn’t get way off path for his routes but sometimes can be moved slightly off target by physical corners. I’d also like to see him sell his decoy/clear-out routes with a bit more urgency/seriousness and he can also work to get a bit more creative in getting himself open on rollout or broken plays (especially if he will be playing with Kyler Murray to start his career). I’d also like to see him have quicker and stronger hands in his release package as he can sometimes allow corners to get their hands on him and stick for a tick too long.
Finally, though I don’t grade heavily for it, he wasn’t asked to block much and it likely wasn’t a strength of his. When he is asked to block, his arms get around defenders and he has trouble keeping them in front so he will need to be careful of holding calls in the NFL. A lot of nitpicking, but areas where he can grow.
Conclusion:
Marvin Harrison Jr deserves a lot of the hype he is getting. His athleticism and jump ball/contested catch ability hold him back from being the best WR prospect ever. However, he absolutely is a top 5 WR prospect in the past 10 years at worst. With the influx of receiver talent the league has seen, I feel that is quite a statement on his talent.
He was a bit of a hard player to comp because I don’t want to go too low to limit what I think his floor and impact are but a lot of the top tier guys I originally considered had better jump ball skills and skills attacking the ball. In the offseason, I had considered an AJ Green comp and I’ve seen that still being done but AJ Green was such an elite jump ball player that always snatched the ball out of the air. Due to both lacking game-breaking speed but being able to be used all over the field including in motion, I have Ceedee Lamb as his comp.
Like Lamb, Harrison Jr. is a smooth mover as a route runner and in space and both have seamless acceleration and the ability to change direction on a dime. Both also have taller, skinnier frames and great hands that can make catches but aren’t particularly strong as jump ball players. I also liked this comp since I was going back and forth if I would have considered Lamb a better prospect than Harrison Jr so it feels fitting to have him as his comp. Like Lamb, I think Harrison Jr. is going to come into the NFL on day 1 and be an alpha for his team.
Malik Nabers, LSU
Height: 6’0”; Weight: 200 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 20 years and 9 months
Class: Junior
Overall Grade: 3.62/4 (Future All-Pro)
Comp: Antonio Brown
Hands: A-
Route Running: A-
Release: B+
Yards After Catch Potential: A-
Jump Ball/Contested Catch: B+
Body Control/Ball Tracking: A-
Future role: A-
RAS: A
Strengths:
For as good as MHJ is, Nabers is right there and there were times when I thought he was going to finish his grading ahead of him and potentially could have depending on MHJ’s RAS grades if he completed athletic testing. His route running is as advertised and he may be the best route runner in this class. He is a fast, efficient route runner with quick, sharp cuts and can blow past defenders with his fast twitch. He also has flexible hips that allow him to smoothly move through his breaks and often doesn’t need much more than the minimum movement to make his cuts.
He is also slippery and quick making it especially hard for defenders to keep up with him with his smooth acceleration and can quickly eat a cushion between him and off coverage. His hitches are especially effective and combined with his good positioning on this route he makes himself an easy target for QBs. He also runs with good tempo to keep corners on their toes and though he can be moved off his path a bit by some more physical corners, he generally can redirect himself back on path.
Also, he seems to have a good understanding of coverage layering and gives the QB enough space between defenders to make him an open target. He also uses his awareness on broken and rollout plays finding openings in the defense. He also has a fast release with quick feet to counter against corners which makes it hard for corners to keep up with him with his quick twitch.
I feel some people are trying to use his experience in the slot as a negative and a sign that he was being hidden from press (similar to what happened to Justin Jefferson predraft). I found this odd when Jefferson was coming out and feel this is nitpicking for Nabers. I just personally don’t see a guy that will struggle with release in the NFL.
He’s also a smooth mover in space with his quick twitch and acceleration and has a seamless transition from receiver to runner. He also has strong hands with more consistent hand technique compared to last year and consistently reaches out to grab the ball. He has strong, fast hands to finish catches through hits and I could see him becoming a reception machine in the NFL.
His tracking skills are also great and he’s very capable of making catches over his shoulder. He also has nimble and very aware feet and has the flexibility to adjust to balls not on his feet while still maneuvering around the sideline. All of these traits give me a lot of confidence that he can be a WR1 at any receiver position for a team in the NFL.
Areas of Improvement:
What still holds him a step below MHJ for me is his limited jump ball ability. It’s not shocking that at his size he isn’t able to pluck the ball out of the air like the 6’3” MHJ but still needs to be brought up. At times, he wasn’t helped by the jump ball placement but he can also work to improve his positioning before the throw. Also, there were a number of times where he kind of just flailed his body in an attempt to get to the ball (more likely to just try to draw a flag), but didn’t really give himself a real chance to make a play on the ball.
For a player his size and playtype, he could have a much better chance at winning with his fades but he isn’t an overly effective fade player right now and will need to improve both his positioning and ability to make a play on the ball. Also, while he has twitch and acceleration, he didn’t win consistently with his speed and likely won’t be taking the top off the defense in the NFL regularly. He more than likely will be more of a quick, twitchy player and not a fast, deep threat which doesn’t diminish his impact but will disappoint a team looking for a deep threat. His release also can improve on vertical routes to give himself a better shot of beating his guy deep.
Though his hand technique was solid this year and better than last year, there were still a number of times when he unnecessarily used underhand technique. Also, he still was capable of finishing catches while going to the ground but there were still a noticeable number of times he wasn’t able to finish these catches. As a route runner, he’s great but there are still a few times where he made the wrong read in zone coverage and needed to slow down and stop his route in the opening of the zone. Also, as I mentioned above, he can be redirected on his routes slightly by physical, bigger corners and defenders.
Conclusion:
I was a big fan of Nabers in the offseason and had him as my WR2 on my summer watchlist and had him in his own tier under MHJ. Due to MHJ not improving his ability to attack the ball and the improvements Nabers made, I would consider him and Nabers in the same tier at this point. Nabers brings excellent route running with explosive cuts to keep defenders racing to try to keep up. He also has great hands and will be a day 1 stud in the NFL.
Due to both having great route running and explosive cuts, I have Antonio Brown as Nabers comp. Zay Flowers got some Antonio Brown comps last year due to similar builds and quickness. However, I think Nabers more fits the bill with elite route running, strong hands, and being more of an underneath winner than a vertical player.
Like Brown, I can see Nabers being nearly impossible to defend with his route running at times. Also, their smooth acceleration and movement skills make them difficult to keep up with on broken and rollout plays. Neither were jump ball players due to size and weren’t the most effective vertical or fade players but still could force the defense’s attention. I think it’s become more clear that Nabers isn’t much of a consolation prize for the team missing out on MHJ and will be a bonafide stud for the next several years.
Rome Odunze, Washington
Height: 6’3”; Weight: 212 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 21 years and 11 months
Class: Senior
Overall Grade: 3.58/4 (Future All-Pro)
Comp: Brandon Marshall
Hands: A-
Route Running: B
Release: B+
Yards After Catch Potential: B+
Jump Ball/Contested Catch: A-
Body Control/Ball Tracking: A
Future role: A-
RAS: A
Strengths:
I had Odunze lower in my summer watchlist due to the abundance of great receivers and due to him being a very good player in a lot of areas but one that I wanted to see improvements in to consider him a great player. Well, it doesn’t happen often, but Odunze improved in just about every way this season.
He didn’t need to improve in this area but his body control and ball tracking are elite. He has great eye contact with deep balls with the ability to easily finish over the shoulder catches without breaking strides. He also has an impressive ability to contort his body while staying in bounds around the sidelines and can fly to back shoulder catches. His innate ability to create separation just before to catching the ball and making late body adjustments keeps defenders guessing.
While some receivers need balls to be perfectly placed to make a play on them, Odunze can go out