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Explanation of Evals/Grading
I’m only about 35 receivers into the 2024 receiver class, but I feel pretty good about my top 1-15. So, I wanted to get a start on putting out my receiver rankings before it turns into information overload with all 50 all at once. To further break things up, I’ll be starting with wide receivers ranked 1-5 and will likely be putting out my evals on my wide receivers 6-10 later this week. For those new to my rankings, I wanted to give some reference for my rankings/grades...
- I typically don't factor in injury history. I also don't factor in "off-field issues" as there is often a lot of dispute among claims. So, unless there is something concrete, like an arrest or video of a player committing a crime, I don’t think I can accurately evaluate this.
- I often value players who I see as having a role in the NFL. In other words, I value players who are elite in one aspect in order to earn a role on the field. I also value players who are so solid at everything that this can justify them being on the field.
- For comps, I try to combine athletic testing, body composition, college production, and play style. I also wait until players are in the NFL for at least three years before comping them to a prospect. Sometimes, this excludes players, which I think could be great comps for prospects, but I think it’s important to see how they establish themselves in the NFL. I also skip players that I compared to other prospects within the past three years to reduce redundancy.
- For receivers, I grade on hands, route running, release, yards after catch potential, jump ball/contested catch ability, body control and ball tracking, athleticism/size/RAS, and future RAS is not a perfect system but this allows more consistency rather than arbitrarily assigning grades. For future role grading, I grade based on whether I can realistically see the player earning time on the field either for a specific skill or a well-rounded skillset.
- Maybe it’s because I enjoy teaching, but I use a grading system similar to a GPA system most United States schools use. So, if a player gets an A in Hands, that equals to a 4/4 in that area. If he gets a B, it equals a 3/4. A-, 3.67, B+ 3.33, etc.
- For overall grades, I take the average of everything. In terms of what the average means in terms of the player’s talent, I have it broken into future All-Pro, top tier prospect, good starter, good role player, may have a future role, needs improvement to contribute, unlikely to contribute, and likely not worthy rostering. The breakdown of the tiers and how the overall grades match are as follows
-Future All-Pro= 4-3.5
-Top Tier Prospect= 3.49-3.25
-Good Starter= 3.24-3
-Good Role Player= 2.99-2.75
-May Have a Future Role= 2.74-2.5
-Needs Improvement to Contribute= 2.49-2.25
-Unlikely to Contribute= 2.24-2
-<2= Likely Not Worth Rostering
So, with all of that out of the way, let’s get to the rankings!
Marvin Harrison Jr
Ohio State (WR1)
Height: 6’3” Weight: 209 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 21 years and 8 months
Class: Junior
Overall Grade: 3.62/4 (Future All-Pro)
Comp: Ceedee Lamb
Hands: A-
Route Running: A-
Release: A-
Yards After Catch Potential: B+
Jump Ball/Contested Catch: B+
Body Control/Ball Tracking: A
Future role: A
RAS: B+*
Strengths
I’m not sure what to say about Marvin Harrison Jr; that hasn’t already been said. While I definitely will highlight his areas of improvement, some of the stuff I’ve read about him feels a bit too much like prospect fatigue. He is definitely that dude and a player that could justify being the #1 overall pick in a class that didn’t have the quarterback talent that the 2024 class has.
His ball-tracking skills are exceptional, as he is easily able to catch balls over his shoulder. He also has the best body control around the sideline and the best foot awareness in this class and in a long time. Close to the sideline, he can make quick, last-minute adjustments to balls to secure the catch.
He also has a diverse release package with a nice use of a stutter step and patience to get his defenders to bite and weave around them with his flexible hips. His quick feet and reaction skills allow him to beat his defenders regardless of how they are aligned pre-snap. Past the initial point of contact, he can sometimes leave players in the dust even after they get good initial contact and can create such a big distance between him and his defender that you could think the defender played off coverage if you didn’t see the start of the play.
Once out on his route, he is a smooth route runner with quick acceleration and the hips to easily change direction. He also has long strides to eat cushions pretty easily and plays with a nice tempo to his routes to get defenders off balance or to bite and then move around them with ease. His cuts are quick and efficient leaving little chance for corners to keep up and he uses good head fakes to further throw them off.
He is also able to make almost unfair transitions. He can go downhill to cut inside in a near instant and can also create separation downfield against man coverage with his body movement and timing. He also has great awareness of where to slow his route down to win against zone.
In non-contested catch situations, he consistently stretches his arms out to finish catches and has strong, reliable hands. He uses good hand technique and can easily grab balls away from his frame and keep his momentum on the route to continue downfield and pick up extra yards. In space, he seems to have smooth acceleration and can get to full speed quickly. He can immediately transition from receiver to runner and his flexible hips allow him to get around more stiff defenders.
Also, despite his contested catch numbers, he can still show strong hands and finish catches despite having defenders right on top of him. This was especially impressive due to being the clear focal point of the passing offense and being surrounded by defenders at times. Finally, while he primarily was used out wide, he had a fair number of snaps from the slot and was also effective when asked to move in motion.
Areas of Improvement
What holds him back from being the greatest receiving prospect ever, and even in the past 10 years, is related to his hands. While his hands are solid, and I’m not concerned about them in the NFL, there were a number of times when he would go up to grab balls, but he used the underhand technique. I would really like to see him also be more aggressive and attack balls. There were a number of times when a corner or safety was on top of him, and he was too willing to settle and let the ball come to him.
I think he can also still work to improve his positioning in jump ball situations to win more easily. Part of his contested catch rate being a bit lower was a number of times where he had poor body positioning and allowed the defender to get a cleaner pass breakup. Also, it may have been due to playing with a transfer quarterback this year, but he can work to improve his timing when going up for jump balls as well and this sometimes contributed to him using underhand technique instead of overhand. I absolutely think he is a far superior player than him, but some of these tendencies are part of what made Quentin Johnston limited as a jump ball player and affected his hands as well.
Also, he again didn’t have a red flag number of drops, but he had a few more drops than previous years (which, to be honest, nobody would bat an eye at if it wasn’t MHJ). He is a pretty sufficient athlete, and I don’t have concerns about him in the NFL, but again, since we are nitpicking, he isn’t a dynamic athlete who likely won’t be taking the top off the defense. Also, he isn’t very creative in space and isn’t able to make guys miss in space very often despite his flexible hips.
With his frame, he doesn’t get way off path for his routes but sometimes can be moved slightly off target by physical corners. I’d also like to see him sell his decoy/clear-out routes with a bit more urgency/seriousness, and he can also work to get a bit more creative in getting himself open on rollout or broken plays (especially if he will be playing with Kyler Murray to start his career). I’d also like to see him have quicker and stronger hands in his release package, as he can sometimes allow corners to get their hands on him and stick for a tick too long.
Finally, though I don’t grade heavily for it, he wasn’t asked to block much and it likely wasn’t a strength of his. When he is asked to block, his arms get around defenders and he has trouble keeping them in front so he will need to be careful of holding calls in the NFL. A lot of nitpicking, but areas where he can grow.
Conclusion
Marvin Harrison Jr deserves a lot of the hype he is getting. His athleticism and jump ball/contested catch ability hold him back from being the best WR prospect ever. However, he absolutely is a top 5 WR prospect in the past 10 years at worst. With the influx of receiver talent the league has seen, I feel that is quite a statement on his talent.
He was a bit of a hard player to comp because I don’t want to go too low to limit what I think his floor and impact are, but a lot of the top-tier guys I originally considered had better jump ball skills and skills attacking the ball. In the offseason, I had considered an AJ Green comp, and I’ve seen that still being done, but AJ Green was such an elite jump ball player who always snatched the ball out of the air. Due to both lacking game-breaking speed and being able to be used all over the field, including in motion, I have Ceedee Lamb as his comp.
Like Lamb, Harrison Jr. is a smooth mover as a route runner and in space, and both have seamless acceleration and the ability to change direction on a dime. Both also have taller, skinnier frames and great hands that can make catches but aren’t particularly strong as jump ball players. I also liked this comp since I was going back and forth about whether I would have considered Lamb a better prospect than Harrison Jr., so it feels fitting to have him as his comp. Like Lamb, I think Harrison Jr. is going to come into the NFL on day one and be an alpha for his team.
Malik Nabers
LSU (WR2)
Height: 6’0” Weight: 200 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 20 years and 9 months
Class: Junior
Overall Grade: 3.62/4 (Future All-Pro)
Comp: Antonio Brown
Hands: A-
Route Running: A-
Release: B+
Yards After Catch Potential: A-
Jump Ball/Contested Catch: B+
Body Control/Ball Tracking: A-
Future role: A-
RAS: A
Strengths
For as good as MHJ is, Malik Nabers is right there, and there were times when I thought he was going to finish his grading ahead of him and potentially could have, depending on MHJ’s RAS grades, if he completed athletic testing. His route running is as advertised, and he may be the best route runner in this class. He is a fast, efficient route runner with quick, sharp cuts and can blow past defenders with his fast twitch. He also has flexible hips that allow him to move smoothly through his breaks, and he often doesn’t need much more than the minimum movement to make his cuts.
He is also slippery and quick, making it especially hard for defenders to keep up with him with his smooth acceleration, and he can quickly eat a cushion between him and off coverage. His hitches are especially effective, and combined with his good positioning on this route, he makes himself an easy target for QBs. He also runs with good tempo to keep corners on their toes and though he can be moved off his path a bit by some more physical corners, he generally can redirect himself back on path.
Also, he seems to have a good understanding of coverage layering and gives the QB enough space between defenders to make him an open target. He also uses his awareness on broken and rollout plays finding openings in the defense. He also has a fast release with quick feet to counter against corners which makes it hard for corners to keep up with him with his quick twitch.
I feel some people are trying to use his experience in the slot as a negative and a sign that he was being hidden from press (similar to what happened to Justin Jefferson predraft). I found this odd when Jefferson was coming out and feel this is nitpicking for Nabers. I just personally don’t see a guy that will struggle with release in the NFL.
He’s also a smooth mover in space with his quick twitch and acceleration and has a seamless transition from receiver to runner. He also has strong hands, a more consistent hand technique compared to last year, and consistently reaches out to grab the ball. He has strong, fast hands to finish catches through hits, and I could see him becoming a reception machine in the NFL.
His tracking skills are also great, and he’s very capable of making catches over his shoulder. He also has nimble and very aware feet and has the flexibility to adjust to balls not on his feet while still maneuvering around the sideline. All of these traits give me a lot of confidence that he can be a WR1 at any receiver position for a team in the NFL.
Areas of Improvement
What still holds him a step below MHJ for me is his limited jump ball ability. It’s not shocking that at his size, he isn’t able to pluck the ball out of the air like the 6’3” MHJ, but it still needs to be brought up. At times, he wasn’t helped by the jump ball placement, but he can also work to improve his positioning before the throw. Also, there were a number of times where he kind of just flailed his body in an attempt to get to the ball (more likely to just try to draw a flag) but he didn’t really give himself a real chance to make a play on the ball.
For a player his size and playtype, he could have a much better chance at winning with his fades but he isn’t an overly effective fade player right now and will need to improve both his positioning and ability to make a play on the ball. Also, while he has twitch and acceleration, he didn’t win consistently with his speed and likely won’t be taking the top off the defense in the NFL regularly. He more than likely will be more of a quick, twitchy player and not a fast, deep threat, which doesn’t diminish his impact but will disappoint a team looking for a deep threat. His release can also improve on vertical routes to give him a better shot of beating his guy deep.
Though his hand technique was solid this year and better than last year, there were still a number of times when he unnecessarily used underhand technique. Also, he was still capable of finishing catches while going to the ground, but there were still a noticeable number of times he wasn’t able to finish these catches. As a route runner, he’s great, but there are still a few times when he made the wrong read in zone coverage and needed to slow down and stop his route at the opening of the zone. Also, as I mentioned above, he can be redirected on his routes slightly by physical, bigger corners and defenders.
Conclusion
I was a big fan of Nabers in the offseason and had him as my WR2 on my summer watchlist and had him in his own tier under MHJ. Due to MHJ not improving his ability to attack the ball and the improvements Nabers made, I would consider him and Nabers in the same tier at this point. Nabers brings excellent route running with explosive cuts to keep defenders racing to try to keep up. He also has great hands and will be a day-one stud in the NFL.
Due to both having great route running and explosive cuts, I have Antonio Brown as Nabers comp. Zay Flowers got some Antonio Brown comps last year due to similar builds and quickness. However, I think Nabers fits the bill better with elite route running, strong hands, and being more of an underneath winner than a vertical player.
Like Brown, I can see Nabers being nearly impossible to defend with his route running at times. Also, their smooth acceleration and movement skills make them difficult to keep up with on broken and rollout plays. Neither were jump ball players due to size, and they weren’t the most effective vertical or fade players, but they still could force the defense’s attention. I think it’s become more clear that Nabers isn’t much of a consolation prize for the team missing out on MHJ and will be a bonafide stud for the next several years.
Rome Odunze
Washington (WR3)
Height: 6’3” Weight: 212 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 21 years and 11 months
Class: Senior
Overall Grade: 3.58/4 (Future All-Pro)
Comp: Brandon Marshall
Hands: A-
Route Running: B
Release: B+
Yards After Catch Potential: B+
Jump Ball/Contested Catch: A-
Body Control/Ball Tracking: A
Future role: A-
RAS: A
Strengths
I had Rome Odunze lower in my summer watchlist due to the abundance of great receivers and due to him being a very good player in a lot of areas but one that I wanted to see improvements in to consider him a great player. Well, it doesn’t happen often, but Odunze improved in just about every way this season.
He didn’t need to improve in this area, but his body control and ball tracking are elite. He has great eye contact with deep balls, and the ability to easily finish over-the-shoulder catches without breaking strides. He also has an impressive ability to contort his body while staying in bounds around the sidelines and can fly to back shoulder catches. His innate ability to create separation just before to catching the ball and making late body adjustments keeps defenders guessing.
While some receivers need balls to be perfectly placed to make a play on them, Odunze can go out and get balls whether they are too far behind him or if he has to move in front of a defender on a pass that was too short. It’s extremely rare that he will look lost and unable to locate a ball or figure out a way to get his body towards it. Once it gets to catching the ball, not many are better than him. He has great vertical ability with good timing to his jumps to almost always high point the ball.
He also has strong hands that let him finish catches through hits and to the ground. Also, he plays with great hand technique with vice grip hands and great arm extensions. This lets him almost always get to the ball before the defender which will make him a QB’s favorite target.
His athletic testing also proved his speed, and it shows up in his games. He has a fast transition from receiver to runner and also seems to have quick acceleration to get to full speed. He also seems to have a good eye for blocks and how to follow openings to pick up speed and extra yards. He has good peripheral vision, as his first step/movement after catching the ball is usually very deliberate in an attempt to avoid defenders.
Two things that caused him to be lower on my watchlist list in the summer were his route running and his release. As I mentioned, his route running took a step forward with better tempo and nuance to his routes. He has better use of head fakes and fakeouts in general.
Though he ran a lot of vertical routes, he still ran a pretty diverse route tree and is capable of running every route in the NFL. He also runs his routes with good balance and strength to maintain the course of his routes even along the sideline. Corners, at times, seemed like they were holding on for dear life to hang onto him with his size and speed.
Also, he can easily eat the cushion of off-coverage quickly with his speed and stride. His release also took a step forward with improved timing and better strength when taking on press. Also, if a team is interested in a blocker, he is a very willing and effective blocker which isn’t a given for receivers of his caliber who usually take run plays off.
Areas of Improvement
Despite the great athletic testing and improvements, I still can’t bring myself to put him at the same grade as MHJ and Nabers, where his route running and release still are. He still tends to round some of his routes and can sometimes need an extra step to gather himself due to not getting lower and breaking down enough. His fakeouts are also nice, but I’d like to see him commit to them. If he’s not selling them, the defense won’t be buying them.
He can also work to improve his awareness of where to settle against zone coverage to make himself an easier target for the QB. Also, there were times when he struggled to get separation downfield with his deeper routes, in part due to his release. There were times when he would get hung up a bit too long with press due to not having elite foot speed and quickness.
Also, there were a few too many times where his release move was a simple fake inside/outside and then moved the other way. When defenders saw this coming, it was easy to stop as long as they had good timing with their arms. Though he uses his arms more, he needs to effectively use his arms to get the defenders disengaged from his body to not disrupt the timing of the play.
While he can get up to full speed quickly to get YAC, he is more of a straight-line runner and doesn’t have the dynamic movement skills in space to make guys miss. A number of teams would probably be very comfortable just playing him at the X spot, but if the team was looking for a more versatile player that could play all three spots, he might not be their guy as he primarily played the X on most pass snaps.
Something he will need to be careful with is his arm extensions. As I mentioned, he has a good feel of how to get some last-minute separation, but part of that was due to extending his arms/using last-minute shoves. It’s subtle and may not get him in trouble, but he will have to keep this subtle in the NFL to avoid flags and frustrating a team and coaching staff.
Conclusion
Though he has made a rare jump from being a very good player to a great player and probably would be the WR1 in most classes, he, unfortunately, is in a class with MHJ and Nabers. I still see him as a day-one contributor as his route running and release continue to improve. They aren’t bad by any means, but improvements can help him reach his high ceiling.
Due to both being great deep threats with good size and strength to finish catches, I have Brandon Marshall as his comp. Like Marshall, I can see Odunze helping as a vertical threat but also lacking some of the movement skills to be a monster in the open field. Also, both have clamps for hands and have great ball tracking skills with great ability to adjust their body to make some ridiculous catches and adjust to any ball in their direction.
Also, like Marshall, Marshall never was a route-running merchant. But he had all the ability to win in the NFL, and I see the same for Odunze. It’s not often that the WR3 for a class is deserving of this high of a grade or comp, but Odunze absolutely earned and deserved it after this last year.
Adonai Mitchell
Texas (WR4)
Height: 6’2” Weight: 205 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 21 years and 6 months
Class: Junior
Overall Grade: 3.42/4 (Top Tier Prospect)
Comp: Calvin Ridley
Hands: B+
Route Running: B+
Release: A-
Yards After Catch Potential: B-
Jump Ball/Contested Catch: B+
Body Control/Ball Tracking: A-
Future role: B+
RAS: A
Strengths:
Adonai Mitchell fits the bill of WRs that I usually fall in love with. He’s a thin, lanky receiver with quickness and a well-refined route running to win deep and underneath. To be honest, I went in with an agenda to see the glaring flaw of why he wasn’t a bigger producer, but as my score indicates, I just became a bigger fan.
His ball-tracking skills are incredible as he plays like a centerfielder at times, showing his ability to finish catches over his shoulders. His eyes are also great at tracking 50/50 balls and also helped with good timing with his jumps to get up to make a play on the ball. He also has great body control and foot awareness around the sidelines and was so good that there were a number of times he ensured he got both feet inbounds instead of just one.
His release is also up there with the best in the class. He has a variety of moves to beat his guy and keep himself clean. He has really nice, quick hand counters and quick, well-coordinated feet. This, along with his smooth movement and impeccable timing of his upper and lower body, makes him really hard to slow down at the start of routes.
Speaking of routes, his route running is great and was underrated all year due to his lack of production. He can run a diverse route tree and can put defenders in a blender at times. He can make some really nice cuts despite his lanky build and can sometimes seem flat-out unfair on some of the cuts he makes on breaking routes.
His fast feet and movement skills keep defenders guessing and can make him a nightmare on short patterns. He also makes good use of head fakes, which makes him even more deceptive with his movement skills. He can eat a cushion of off coverage quickly and also has fluid hips to make defenders bite and then burn them upfield. He also has good stacking ability to make him a great vertical threat and has good tempo to his routes that also helps him create separation downfield.
Also, he seems to have a good eye for recognizing zone coverage and knowing where to settle to be open. His hands are also very reliable, with a 1.8% drop rate this year. He uses late hands to give the defenders little time to react and also shows the ability to stretch out for balls away from his frame.
Areas of Improvement
I will say that while I was definitely a fan of his in the season and with my rewatch, his shine did start to dim the more I rewatched him. As many others have pointed out, his effort on routes can be inconsistent and really disappointing on decoy routes. There will be teams willing to bet on his upside and his best routes, but the low-effort snaps may scare a lot of teams off, even if it may have been a coaching thing.
Also, with his thinner frame, he will try to weave through traffic to avoid contact but, at times, will allow himself to really derail his route. He can also give up leverage to defenders who are more physical or very ball hawky and allow them to make a play on the ball. Speaking of allowing defenders to make a play, there were a few too many times where he was too reliant on body catching and could benefit from extending his arms a bit further to make it more difficult for defenders to make a play on the ball. At times, he can seem a bit intimidated to make a catch in traffic, but he also doesn’t seem to have the tenacity to leap up and snatch a ball with his size and explosiveness.
Also, his hand technique can be inconsistent, and sometimes, he can be a bit hesitant. It’s like he is trying to get a read of if he should use under or overhand technique and can sometimes just settle on a body catch. It could be part of a lack of production and may get cleaned up as time goes on, but it is still something to work on.
Also, for the explosive and speedy athlete he is, he offers pretty little after the catch. He has great straight line speed but pretty little wiggle and agility in the open field. He also seems uncreative as a runner and seems a bit indecisive at times about where he wants to go. Also, though he is a willing blocker, he isn’t an overly effective blocker.
Finally, though this is primarily a game review/eval, I do want to note that his analytics are pretty wack, with incredibly low yards per route run this year and throughout his career, as well as limited overall production. I believe part of the reason is Texas’ RPO offense prioritizing short patterns while having him fly on vertical and deep routes, which limits some of his opportunities as well as just some questionable reads by Ewers. That being said, he can form an argument like this for a lot of players, and they still manage to be more consistent contributors than Mitchell.
Conclusion
Mitchell might be the greatest battle between film nerds or data nerds and showcase who may deserve more respect for their eval. Joking aside, I don’t think Mitchell is as simple as a “just trust the tape” or “look at the numbers.” There is a lot of good to his game but a fair number of red flags.
His route running, body control skills, athleticism, and generally reliable hands show the traits of a player who is capable of being a WR1. However, his inconsistent effort, difficulty finishing and making catches through traffic, limited YAC ability, and concerning analytical profile scream a guy that may not reach his ceiling. That being said, the upside is too enticing for me to ignore, and I have to feel that a lot of teams feel the same way.
Due to their route running, ball tracking skills, and speed, I have Calvin Ridley as Mitchell’s comp. Like Ridley, Mitchell can step in on day one and beat corners left and right with his quickness and route running. They both enter the league with a great release package and possess a diverse route tree capable of helping any offense.
Both also struggled to finish catches through traffic while not being able to provide big gains in YAC situations. Both also have thinner builds that can allow themselves to be moved off their path or lose leverage at times. Some team members will be willing to bet on Mitchell and go all in, so it will be interesting to see how high he goes and how he pans out.
Troy Franklin
Oregon (WR5)
Height: 6’2”; Weight: 176 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 21 years and 8 months
Class: Junior
Overall Grade: 3.29/4 (Top Tier Prospect)
Comp: Terry McLaurin
Hands: B
Route Running: B+
Release: A-
Yards After Catch Potential: B+
Jump Ball/Contested Catch: B
Body Control/Ball Tracking: B+
Future role: B+
RAS: B+
Strengths
I was a big Troy Franklin fan this offseason with him at WR3 on my watchlist and I’m still a big fan. Though he has a very lean build, he is fast and slippery with his release at the snap and is really efficient at limiting contact from press. He has a good combo of timing and subtle movements, along with an explosive first step to blow past defenders. He also has good awareness of how to beat corners inside/outside, even when they are aligned, to take them away, and has a variety of moves to win early and get in position to start his route on a good note.
Also, he is great at getting defenders off balance at the line and helping him win in his route. He has really good ball-tracking skills while still maintaining awareness of the sidelines. He has a great eye for following deep balls and showed the ability to consistently finish over-the-shoulder catches.
Though his testing didn’t indicate it, his game performance showed off his fast speed with some quick feet and wiggle despite his lanky build to make defenders miss. He has a seamless transition from receiver to runner and does a good job following his blocks on screen plays to maximize opportunities. Also, despite a fair drop rate, his hands are pretty reliable and capable of being a go-to target. He showed the ability to go up and get balls in the air while also being able to go down to the ground and finish catches as well.
He is also a willing and capable blocker despite his frame. His route running is also great, with good use of head fakes and some surprisingly nice cuts to his routes. He can effortlessly change direction in his routes and has great quickness and timing to get beat corners deep when they are flipping their hips. His long strides create separation downfield, but he also can quickly eat a cushion with his long strides.
Also, he seemed to improve his awareness when reading zone coverage. This year, he did a better job settling in openings compared to last year. Also, despite all the talk of him coming from an RPO-heavy offense, he is very capable of running every route in the NFL and was great at medium to deep routes.
On that note, there was a lot of talk about him primarily being a short-yard receiver due to the Oregon offense with nearly 50% of his targets at 9 yards or shorter. That number definitely isn’t ideal, but looking at the other top receiver prospects, he has a very similar rate as Nabers, Keon Coleman, and Brian Thomas Jr. and a lower rate than Xavier Worthy. MHJ, Odunze, and AD Mitchell have him beat, but it’s not like Franklin is a big outlier.
Also, in terms of converted receptions, he converted on 66.67% of his targets from 10-19 yards and 56% from 20+ yards. His 10-29 conversion rate is higher than MHJ, Nabers, Coleman, and Worthy, the same as Odunze and Brian Thomas Jr., and nearly the same as AD. His 20+ yard conversion rate is higher than Odunze, Mitchell, Worthy, Coleman, but lower than MHJ, Nabers, and Brian Thomas Jr. So, I think this talk is a bit overblown and I think his game performance also shows this.
Areas of Improvement
Where I think criticism is more justified is in his hands and contested catch numbers/ability. He had a 10% drop rate and converted on only 36.8% of his catches in traffic per PFF, which is shown in his games. The optimist in me wants to say this was a one-year issue due to finishing on 63.6% of his contested catch attempts and only a drop rate of 3.2% in 2022. But there were too many times this year when he was unable to finish the catch after the defender got his hands on Franklin or the ball.
He can help by having better hand technique due to his hand technique being inconsistent at times. This causes him to play with weaker hands than he has and more easily allows defenders to disrupt his timing and finish ability for the catch. He sometimes will also struggle to finish catches at the further point from his frame/his fingers (though this was probably more related to hand size).
I’d also like to see him do a better job going up and snatching the ball. Sometimes, his hands would be too delayed, and he would body catch the ball and wouldn’t go up with good hand technique to use his size and grab it out of the air. Also, while he can make adjustments to the ball, he isn’t an acrobat in the air, so he won’t be making too many highlight-reel catches. With his leaner frame, he isn’t able to make as much effort on jump balls and will need to find a way to more effectively box defenders out to help in this area.
Also, though he has good speed and quickness, I wouldn’t consider either elite, where he can burn a defense or consistently make guys miss in space. Though he is good at avoiding contact from defenders, his leaner frame can cause him to be moved off his spot in his routes and he will need to find a way to maintain his path. His route running is also great, but he can be a bit crisper in some of his in-breaking routes if he wants to become truly dominant in this area.
Finally, while he has good release skills, if defenders do get him square and get their hands on him, they can get him hung up due to his lack of size and strength. Speaking of, his frame is extremely lean. There have been a number of more lean receivers these past few years, but he still has one of the most lean builds, making it a bit hard to trust his body type will hold up in the more physical NFL.
Conclusion
Franklin is a very exciting player and, I think, one who has all the tools to be a very good receiver in the NFL. But he’s lacking in some areas to make him a clear #1 receiver. He has great route running, release skills, and athleticism that is suggestive of a WR1, but his inconsistent hand technique, difficulty finishing contested catches, and very lean build make me nervous about this outlook. His hands were much better in 2022, so that gives me hope that he can get back to his 2022 level of finishing catches, but his build is likely here to stay.
Last year, Rashee Rice was a good example of how hand technique and fluctuating drop rates can still lead to success and improvement in the NFL. Franklin could definitely follow that same path and make it look like we overanalyzed this or could continue to struggle in this area in the NFL. Though they aren’t the same size/frame due to similar hand technique inconsistencies and both being good vertical weapons, I have Terry McLaurin as his comp.
Both lack great use of arm extensions and will often use the underhand technique when attacking the ball. Both are also really good route runners with the ability to win on intermediate and short routes with fluid hips. Neither are great jump ball winners and had some struggles with contested catches in college but can win against press consistently to succeed. I feel people go back and forth if Terry McClaurin is a WR1, and I think Franklin is having a bit of the same discussion and will likely have this in the NFL as well, but if he can clean up his hands and return to his 2022 form, I think he has everything it takes to be a WR1 for a team.
