As hitters heat up, it’s difficult to determine whose output is sustainable and who’s just having a good few weeks. We're evaluating five hitters with strong early performances against their metrics to assess their offensive potential for the season.
Refer to the Advanced Stats Glossary at the end of the article for concise explanations of the metrics mentioned.
Michael A. Taylor (CF)
16% Rostered - ADD
Michael A. Taylor is off to a blistering first year with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Over 32 at-bats, he’s slashing an impressive .375/.389/.469 with an OPS of .858. His performance is consistent against right-handed and left-handed pitchers, showing a slight edge against southpaws.
Taylor’s high level of production is underpinned by solid advanced metrics such as excellent xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG, suggesting that his high-quality contact is likely to continue yielding good results.
Of course, Taylor’s game isn’t perfect. He’s showing a tendency to strike out and carries a high whiff rate, along with a relatively low walk rate, which could be areas of concern. If pitchers begin to exploit Taylor’s tendency to chase outside the zone, we can expect his performance to dip.
Despite these concerns, Taylor's advanced metrics overwhelmingly support the likelihood of sustained offensive productivity. His speed adds further value, highlighted by thirteen stolen bases last season and one already this year. For those in need of outfield reinforcements, particularly anyone reeling from the loss of Luis Robert Jr, Taylor is a recommended add.
Orlando Arcia (SS)
21% Rostered
AVOID
The case for adding Orlando Arcia is that he’s starting on a star-studded Atlanta Braves squad. If Arcia consistently gets on base, he has the potential to become a run machine, driven in by elite hitters like Ronald Acuña Jr. and the rest of the Braves offense. Oh, and he’s also slashing .389/.429/.513 with an OPS of .942.
It doesn’t take a sabermetric genius to conclude that Arcia’s early-season tear is not sustainable at its current level. After all, in nine seasons, he carries a career .638 OPS, starkly contrasting his current production. Don’t be fooled; his performance is a classic case of early-season overachievement.
Advanced metrics such as xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA suggest that Arcia’s output will likely regress as the season unfolds. If you currently roster Arcia, consider dumping him off to an uninformed league mate while his value peaks. If you don’t, then I wouldn't worry about adding him unless you believe his hot streak might persist a bit longer.
Ryan O’Hearn (1B/RF)
3% Rostered - ADD
Ryan O’Hearn is likely overlooked in your league, but his early-season performance screams potential. With a slash line of .333/.429/.583 and an OPS of 1.012 through nine games, O’Hearn simply has a talent for hitting the ball hard. No, he won’t put up a season OPS on par with MVP candidates, but the advanced stats profile suggests that O’Hearn’s current performance isn’t a fluke.
His high expected batting and slugging percentages, combined with excellent exit velocity, barrel rate, and sweet-spot percentage, make him a desirable addition in most formats. Moreover, his elite chase rate indicates superior plate discipline, making him a tough out for pitchers.
O’Hearn’s power seems genuine, and his discipline at the plate should enable him to maintain a high OBP, even if his walk rate doesn’t increase. I feel confident that the underlying metrics suggest he’s a high-caliber hitter capable of sustaining his early success.
You can’t count on O’Hearn playing every day, but he makes the absolute most of his limited playing time batting in the middle of the Orioles' lineup. O’Hearn is a sleeper hit; pick him up.
Charlie Blackmon (RF)
17% Rostered
ADD or MONITOR
It’s 2024, and you bet I’m talking about Chuck Nazty. The longtime Colorado Rockies’ leadoff hitter is 37 years old and he’s still productive at the plate. So far, Charlie Blackmon is slashing .326/.396/.558 with an OPS of .954. He also has a stolen base, which is unexpected, to say the least.
Blackmon is striking out at the lowest rate of his career and making hard contact against lefties and righties. Not to mention, he gets to play half his games at the hitter’s paradise known as Coors Field. The advanced stats suggest that while Blackmon might see slight regression, his overall production should remain high.
While concerns about his low chase rate are valid, his contact skills largely compensate. Blackmon is still a valuable asset in fantasy lineups, though some may prefer to monitor his performance briefly before committing. I wouldn’t blame you for slapping him on the watch list and monitoring his output for a week or two.
Jurickson Profar (LF)
4% Rostered - AVOID
Jurickson Profar is slashing a career-high line of .333/.434/.578 with an OPS of 1.012. Profar’s high on-base percentage is strongly supported by his excellent walk rate, which should remain a consistent skill. However, taking a deeper look into his offensive metrics, we see significant discrepancies between his actual batting and slugging percentages and the expected metrics.
Such discrepancies in xBA and xSLG indicate potential regression in those areas unless he can adjust to improve the quality of his batted balls. What’s interesting about Profar is that he has hit the ball with power, as demonstrated by his high average exit velocity. However, he simultaneously displays a low barrel rate, which limits his slugging output.
Nonetheless, advanced metrics suggest a cautious outlook on Profar’s current offensive run. I will be avoiding adding Profar until some of those metrics; specifically xSLG and Barrel %, increase to at least the league average.
Glossary of Advanced Stats
1. xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-base Average):
This metric estimates a player's overall offensive value based on the quality of their at-bats rather than the outcomes. xwOBA uses exit velocity, launch angle, and sprint speed of batted balls, ignoring the actual results of these hits.
2. xBA (Expected Batting Average): This stat predicts a batter's batting average based on the launch angle and exit velocity of batted balls rather than actual hits to provide a more stable measure of hitting ability.
3. xSLG (Expected Slugging Percentage): Similar to xBA, xSLG uses the quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to estimate what a player's slugging percentage should be if the defensive play were average.
4. Exit Velocity (Exit Velo): The speed at which the ball leaves the bat after contact. Higher exit velocities can indicate a higher likelihood of hits and are often associated with more potent offensive players.
5. Barrel Rate (Barrel %): This measures how often a player hits the ball with optimal exit velocity and launch angle, likely leading to extra-base hits. It's a good indicator of a player's power-hitting ability.
6. Sweet Spot % (Sweet Spot Percentage): This metric measures the percentage of a player's batted balls with a launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees, optimizing the likelihood of hits and extra-base hits.
