thedraftnetwork.com

Synopsis and Model Background

Dating back to last year, I've spent 100s of hours analyzing data and advanced metrics that correlate to NFL success for Wide Receiver prospects. The draft model I developed grades out each prospect based on a plethora of variables and metrics, each of which is weighed proportionally to their importance and correlation to NFL success. 

I created several composite scores that directly relate to a prospect's grade. Each composite score has its own respective weighted metrics. The following scores include:

- Production Score: Accounts for a prospect's overall collegiate production along with production on a per-game basis

- Efficiency Score: Takes into account several metrics such as YPRR, First Down & Touchdown Per Route Run, QBR when Targeted, etc.

- Film Score: This is the one score that I directly outsource (as made obvious by my name) from several different sources which allows me to put together a quantifiable film score

- Athletic Score: Takes into account athletic measurements, but also outsources scores such as RAS (Relative Athleticism Score) or PFF GAS (Game Athleticism Score)

- Deep Threat Score: Accounts for how a prospect produces as a deep threat including metrics like Air Yards Per Target, Air Yardage %, speed, etc. 

- YAC Score: Accounts for how a prospect produces as a YAC threat including metrics like Avoided Tackle Rate, YAC Per Reception, YAC %, etc. 

- Multi-Threat Score: Accounts for how a prospect produces as a multi-threat receiver. Weighs a prospect's Deep Threat Score and YAC score along with other variables. 

I've also included multipliers in my model that impact a prospect's grade. Some multipliers include: Competition Level, Size, Red Flag, and Age.

Without further ado, please enjoy my prospect rankings 21-30. 

Analytical Prospect Rankings (21-30)

Grades range on a scale of 1-10

30. Joshua Cephus 

(Prospect Grade: 4.30, Tier 8)

Positives

- 4th-lowest drop rate in the entire class, dropping only 9 balls on 433 career targets. 

- Joshua Cephus caught an impressive 72% of his career targets, also 4th best in the class.

- One of the most productive receivers in the entire class with 3,655 receiving yards on 313 receptions and 28 touchdowns.

Negatives

- Below average athlete, RAS of only 5.93.

- Low career YPRR of only 1.90 and a below-average YPRR vs Zone of 1.97.

- Played against lower-level competition, a major red flag for productive collegiate receivers. 

- Cephus played 5 years at The University of Texas at San Antonio, 4 of those years were while UTSA played in the C-USA conference. For reference, only 3 players were drafted from the C-USA conference in last year's draft and only 4 players the year before. The most recent WR taken from C-USA conference was Charlotte receiver Grant DuBose by the Packers last year. 

- Low contested catch rate of 39% on a not-so-small sample size of 74 career contested targets. 

- Older prospect, will be 23 on draft day. 

29. Xavier Legette

(Prospect Grade: 4.39, Tier 8)

Positives

- One of the most athletic receivers in the draft class. Scored a 9.89 RAS, ranking 6th in the class.

- Ran a 4.39 at 221lb with a 40" vertical and 10’ 6’’ broad jump, all of which were elite in their respective measurements.

- Xavier Legette's physicality works particularly well against man coverage where Legette had a 2.28 career YPRR and a PFF Grade of 85.6 vs Man in 2023.

- In his first full year as a starter, Legette put up some impressive numbers with 1,255 receiving yards on 71 receptions and 7 touchdowns with an impressive 17.7 yards/rec. 

- In 2023, Legette also impressed with a YPRR of over 3.00 and a PFF grade of 82.5.

Negatives

- Already 23 years old before getting drafted. He also had a late, late breakout age of 22.

- Legette has played a lot of football with extremely low production. Prior to 2023, Legette played in 41 games and ran almost 600 routes in 4 years with only 423 receiving yards (~0.71 YPRR) and 5 touchdowns to show for it.

- Ranks 30th in the class in QBR when Targeted. Legette also ranks extremely low in TDPRR (30th) and First Down PRR (last).

- Had an atrocious career YPRR of 1.55, ranking dead last in career YPRR by a considerable margin. Also had an awful career PFF grade vs Zone of 61.10, dead last again.

- While often seen as a positive, Legette struggled with contested catches in his career, only converting 43% of his contested targets. 

28. Tahj Washington

(Prospect Grade: 4.58, Tier 8)

Positives

- Ranks middling across the board in advanced metrics like Career YPRR (2.11), contested catch rate (13th), QBR when Targeted (ranks 14th), and drop rate (16th).  Not bad, not great. 

- Overall a poor athlete, but did run a good 3-cone at 6.84. 

- Above-average avoided tackle rate at 24%. 

- Had a really good breakout age of 19.3, good for the 82nd percentile. 

Negatives

- A very poor athlete for someone who is also very undersized. 174lb at 5'10 who ran a 4.52 at his pro-day. 

- Ranks as the 11th-worst prospect in both TDPRR and YPRR vs Zone

- Ranks 9th worst in FDPRR PFF Grade vs Zone. 

- Despite playing 54 career games in college, very low production profile. Didn't break 1k yards until his 5th-year. 

27. De'Corian Clark

(Prospect Grade: 4.78, Tier 8)

Positives

- Low drop rate of only 4%, with only 6 drops on 169 career targets.

- An admirable avoided-tackle rate of 26% which ranks 7th in the class.

- Modestly high catch rate of 67% with a contested catch rate of 49%.

- While not standing out in any particular stat, De'Corian Clark ranked above-average in multiple advanced metrics include: YPRR (2.22, ranked 14th), TDPRR (10th), FRPRR (14th), and QBR when Targeted (12th). 

- Clark most notably stood out against Man Coverage. Would it shock you if I told you he had the best YPRR vs Man of any receiver in the draft class by a considerable margin? 

- Clark had a Career  YPRR vs Man of 4.05, the highest in the class. 2nd was Anthony Gould with a YPRR vs Man of 3.39. 

- He also had a PFF Grade vs Man of 84.15, 2nd best and only behind Marvin Harrison Jr. 

Negatives

- On the other end, Clark struggled against zone (which has a much higher correlation to NFL success than Man production) with a YPRR vs Zone of 1.70. This ranks 2nd worst in the draft class.

- Already 23 years old and does not qualify for breakout age as he never "broke out" in his 5 years of college. 

- Teammate of fellow draft prospects Joshua Cephus and Zakhari Franklin, meaning he also played against low-level competition. As mentioned with Cephus, only 3 players were drafted from the C-USA conference in last year's draft and 4 players the year before.

- Despite playing against low-level competition, he was significantly outproduced by other of his teammates. So, essentially, he was a WR3 for his collegiate career in a conference that does not produce good NFL players. 

26. Isaiah Williams

(Prospect Grade: 4.81, Tier 8)

Positives

- High catch rate of 69% with an even more impressive avoided-tackle rate of 29%, 3rd best in the class. 

- Average YPRR of 2.23 and ranks 12th in First Down per Route Run. 

- In college prospects, we like to see them perform well against zone and Isaiah Williams does that. Williams has a YPRR vs Zone of 2.45 and ranks 6th best in PFF Grade vs Zone (76.00 grade).

- Williams had great agility testing with a 4.13 shuttle time and 6.75 3-cone. Also had an impressive 38-inch verticle at only 5'9. 

Negatives

- Small and light WR prospect, measuring in at 5'9 and 182 lb. Ran a really slow 40-time of 4.63.

- As with many of these lowly-ranked prospects, Williams is an older prospect. I couldn't find his age anywhere, but he played 5 years in college so I'm assuming he will be 23 on draft day. 

- Low-contested catch rate of only 35% on 34 career-contested targets.

- Ranks bottom 10 in TD per Route Run and ranks bottom 5 in QBR when Targeted. 

25. Ainias Smith

(Prospect Grade: 4.83, Tier 8)

Positives

- Another lowly-ranked prospect with an impressive avoided-tackle rate (28%, 4th best in the class)

- Ranks average in metrics like YPRR vs Zone (2.13), First Down per Route Run (ranked 19th), and PFF Grade vs Zone (ranked 15th). 

- Had a PFF Grade vs Man of 79.5 in 2023.

Negatives

- Another small WR, only 5'9 and 190lb

- 9th worst QBR when Targeted in the draft class. 

- Mediocre Career YPRR of only 1.99, the 12th worst in the class and the 13th worst TD Per Route Run. 

- 16 drops on 279 career targets. 

- Low production, especially for a receiver who played 5 years (but at least played against SEC competition). 

24. Jacob Cowing

(Prospect Grade: 5.12, Tier 7)

Positives

- Not only does Jacob Cowing have the best pure production profile in the class, he has the 3rd-highest production profile of any prospect in my database. Reminiscent of Tank Dell last year.

- Despite being an older prospect (23), Cowing had an elite breakout age of 18.6, 95th percentile. 

- Cowing also had the 4th best Career YPRR in the entire draft class, even while running the second most routes in the draft class.

-Well rounded receiver when it comes to coverage as his YPRR vs Zone and Man are both very close, as are his PFF grades vs both coverages. 

- 5th-best First Down per Route Run in the draft class, highlighting is reliability as a receiver. 

- Speedy receiver, ran a 4.38 40-yard dash.

Negatives

- An excessively undersized athlete at 5'8 and 168 lb. Mediocre overall athlete, despite running a fast 40. Had a concerning shuttle time of 4.32.

- Played the majority of his career against low-level competition (C-USA conference) and had a major drop-off in production after transferring to Arizona in 2022.

- While on the surface the overall production wasn't that different (1,361 rec. yards in 2021, 1,034 in 2022, 868 in 2023), Cowing played a lot more snaps in Arizona than he was playing at UTEP. (381 passing snaps in 2021, 502 in 2022, and 472 in 2023). 

- For comparison, Cowing's YPRR dropped by over 40% when comparing his YPRR in 2021 to 2022. In 2023, Cowing had a career-low YPRR of only 1.92.

- Serious drop concerns, with a total of 33 drops on 495 career targets. Cowing almost doubles the next prospect in drops (17). 

- Extremely low contested catch rate of only 36%. 6th worst drop rate in the class. 

- While Cowing has the 4th best Career YPRR in the draft class, he ranks 15th in YPRR vs Zone. 

23. Malik Washington

(Prospect Grade: 5.14, Tier 7)

Positives

- Being undersized did not keep Malik Washington from being an elite contested catch received. Washington has the 3rd best career contested catch rate in the class at 57%. He caught 64.7% of his contested targets in 2023.

- On top of his contested catch ability, Washington ranks top 5 in overall catch rate catching 72% of his career targets.

- Above-average athleticism with a RAS score of 8.63. Elite explosion score with a 42.5-inch vert and 10'6" broad jump. Also ran a 4.47 40, which isn't amazing at his size but is good enough.

- You can call him Malik "Malik Nabers" Washington when it comes to after-the-catch ability. Washington ranks 2nd-best in the class in avoided tackle rate (29.6%), behind only Nabers.

- While Washington has a sub-par career YPRR, he as a 2.47 YPRR vs Zone for his career, ranking 11th in the class. 

- Ranks top five in PFF Grade vs Zone with a PFF Grade of 77.80 vs Zone.

- Best hands in the draft? Possibly. At the very least, Washington had the lowest drop rate in the class dropping only 6 balls on 321 career targets. 

Negatives

- Undersized receiver - 5'8, 191lb which sub-par speed at his size. While Tank Dell proved to be a very productive receiver at his size, we can't ignore the historical data.

- Tank Dell is really the only receiver in the NFL 5'8 or shorter that has shown any kind of ability to produce in the NFL. 

- Terrible Career QBR when Targeted and Career TD Per Route Run, ranking 2nd-worst in the draft class for both metrics.

- Washington has only 12 career touchdowns in 52 games played and has an overall poor production profile for someone who played 5 years in college. He broke 1k yards only once (and really, broke 700 yards only once). 

- Mediocre in both Career YPRR (2.18, ranks 18th) and First Down Per Route Run (ranks 23rd). 

- One of the oldest prospects in the draft and has a below-average breakout age of 20.7

22. Zakhari Franklin

(Prospect Grade: 5.19, Tier 7)

Positives

- Second most productive receiver in the draft class and ranks 1st in total touchdowns scored, 5 more than 2nd place.

- Ranks top 10 in several key advanced metrics including Career QBR when Targeted (10th), First Down Per Route Run (10th), PFF Grade vs Zone (7th), and TD Per Route Run (6th).

- Ranks 13th in YPRR vs Zone while having the 3rd most yards vs zone in the draft class. 

- Decent hands, 4% drop rate on 389 career targets. 

Negatives

- Did not impress at all in his limited time playing for Ole Miss after transferring from UTSA. In 2023, Franklin had only 37 yards in 75 pass snaps and had a dreadful YPRR of 0.54

- Racked up essentially all of his production against low-level competition, same as with his teammates De'Corian Clark and Joshua Cephus. I should again mention that only 7 players were drafted from the C-USA conference in the last two years and only 1 of them was a WR that was taken in the 7th round. 

- Below-average avoided-tackle rate which is particularly concerning considering he played against such a low level of competition. 

- 4th-lowest Multi-Threat Score in the class. Performed below-average as both a deep threat and YAC ability. 

- Mitchell ranked 11th in both QBR when Targeted and TD Per Route Run. He ranked 6th in TD per Target and 7th in First Down per Target. 

21. Adonai Mitchell

(Prospect Grade: 5.34, Tier 6)

Positives

- Not only is Adonai Mitchell the most athletic prospect in this group, but he's also the most athletic prospect in the draft class. Not only is he the most athletic prospect in the draft class, he might be the most athletic receiver that has entered the NFL in a long time.

- Dating back to 2010. Mitchell has the 2nd-highest RAS (9.99), only behind Joe Webb. Webb transitioned to QB in the NFL, so you can argue he's the most athletic receiver that has entered the draft since 2010. It would be redundant to list Mitchell's insane measurables, but I would recommend everyone to check them out if you haven't yet. 

- Mitchell graded out well as a deep threat with the 3rd highest Deep Treat Score in this year's class, behind only Jermaine Burton and Devontez Walker. 

- For clarification, the Deep Threat score does skew heavily to prospects with a high ADOT and prospects with a more well-rounded game wouldn't necessarily grade out highly in this metric. Regardless, Mitchell has shown the ability to be a high-end deep threat with a YPC of over 15 in college.

- Good hands. Low drop rate of only 4.5%. 7 drops on 155 career targets including only 1 drop in 2023. 

- Mitchel has a prototypical WR build, standing at 6'2" and 205lb. Played the majority of snaps out wide.

Negatives

- Mitchell graded out below average to poorly in almost every highly correlated analytical metric that has been translatable to NFL success.

- Some of the most important analytical metrics are: Yards Per Route Run (YPRR), YPRR vs Zone, TD per route run, First Down per route run, PFF grade against zone coverage, and Avoided Tackle Rate.

- Not wanting to dig into Mitchell too aggressively, I will just list how Mitchell performed in the following metrics and where he ranks amongst the 35 eligible WR prospects in this year's draft:

- YPRR: 1.68 (32nd) | Amongst 29 NFL WRs with a PFR Avg. Value of 6, he would rank last (behind Michael Wilson's 1.77)

- YPRR vs Zone: 1.72 (32nd) | Amongst 29 NFL WRs with a PFR Avg. Value of 6, he would rank last (also behind Michael Wilson's 1.80)

- FDRR (24th):  | Amongst 29 NFL WRs with a PFR Avg. Value of 6, he would rank 3rd last. 

- PFF Grade vs Zone: 67.65 (30th) | Amongst 29 NFL WRs with a PFR Avg. Value of 6, Mitchell would rank 2nd-worst (just ahead of Michael Wilson's 64.82 PFF grade)

- Mitchell also ranks below average in avoided tackle rate, catch %, and career QBR (which some might chalk up to playing with Ewers).

- Beyond just the analytic metrics, Mitchell also has some of the lowest production of any (potential) top-2 round prospect. Amongst all receiver drafted in the 1st or 2nd round dating back to 2019, Mitchell would have the 4th worst production profile. The receiver's below him were: Jonathan Mingo, Kadarious Toney, and Mecole Hardman.