Maize n Brew

With the NFL Draft a couple of weeks away, now is the perfect time in the pre-draft media cycle to talk about team fits. Some are obvious, others more ambiguous. 

Today we're going to look at which players to be drafted this year have the most variance in outlook based on landing spot? I will highlight five running backs and five receivers with the most to gain by getting to their dream scheme, on top of who has the most to lose by getting stuck with a bad fit. To make the best decision possible with your draft picks, you’re going to have to know what players could play where, so let’s see.

RANGE OF OUTCOMES IS BASED ON DRAFT RANKING, NOT IN SEASON RANKING. RB1 OUTCOME=BEST RB IN THIS CLASS AND SO ON

RUNNING BACKS

1. Jonathon Brooks, Texas

Pros: Fantastic zone runner, great vision and patience. Can run from the gun or under center. Backs up rushing capability with good receiving chops and elusiveness in open space. It would be great in a zone running scheme with plenty of open space for him to work as a safety valve on dump-offs.

Cons: Not a powerful runner that initiates contact and finishes runs with his head down. If you take away his ability to set up angles and Linebackers, he is a less effective inside runner. He would be misused in a power scheme that emphasizes using big bodies to dig out a specific hole to run through. Let him be creative!

BEST FITS - Bengals, Bills, Cowboys, Chiefs

WORST FITS - Patriots, Packers, Ravens, Broncos

RANGE OF OUTCOMES 

ORDERED BEST FIT - CURRENT RANK - WORST FIT

RB1 - RB1 - RB5

2. Blake Corum, Michigan

Pros: Small and powerful frame lets Blake Corum hide and explode from behind a mauling offensive line, meaning he is great in the power run game. He churns out tough yards and can capitalize on bad angles on the second and third levels.

Cons: Corum's size is a con as well as a pro. If you were to leave him in open space without much help, he wouldn’t be able to use his size to his advantage. A zone scheme that gives him multiple gaps to choose from isn’t conducive to his hard punch and cut running style. This scheme doesn’t let him get lost in traffic to eke out yards.

BEST FITS - Chargers, Packers, Eagles, Steelers

WORST FITS - Bengals, Dolphins, Colts, Buccaneers

RANGE OF OUTCOMES

ORDERED FROM BEST FIT - CURRENT RANK - WORST FIT

RB4 - RB6 - RB9

3. Ray Davis, Kentucky

Pros: Ray Davis has good vision and quickness in executing zone runs, and it seems his physical profile is uniquely suited for it. He can change his pace instantly to keep blocks set up and can consistently make the first man miss through the hole. Balance, awareness, and short area quickness make for a good zone back.

Cons: Davis doesn’t bring much power behind his pads and doesn’t keep a low enough level to deliver if it were there. A scheme that has him punching a hole to wear the defense down will break Davis before it breaks the D line. Let him work in space and make things happen- if you tell him to go out there and churn yards, he will crumple.

BEST FITS - Panthers, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Rams

WORST FITS - Browns, Lions, Raiders

RANGE OF OUTCOMES

ORDERED FROM BEST FIT - CURRENT RANK - WORST FIT 

RB5 - RB7 - RB13

4. Braelon Allen, Wisconsin

Pros: Braelon Allen is a massive human being and is already physically dominant at 20 years old. He can churn yards with his legs and is going to remain tough to bring down as long as he is moving forward. He moves his weight smoothly within the confines of the power run, which lets him eke out a few more yards than others could. He has a good, stiff arm. He needs to be a grit and grind power runner.

Cons: Not very flexible, can’t flip his hips, and gets caught in negative plays as a result. Not great at dealing with contact and won’t consistently pull through tackles if he doesn’t deliver the blow. Though he is packed with muscle, he has a terrible anchor in pass pro and gets knocked back consistently. Not going to be a plus on passing downs.

BEST FITS - Raiders, Packers, Ravens, Patriots

WORST FITS - Bengals, Rams, Jaguars, 49ers

RANGE OF OUTCOMES 

ORDERED FROM, BEST FIT - CURRENT RANK - WORST FIT

RB6 - RB9 - RB13

5. Will Shipley, Clemson

Pros: Will Shipley is an athletic receiving back who is passable as a zone runner but should really be kept in on passing downs exclusively (at least to start his NFL career). He is a forward mover; you will rarely find him not getting north/south. He will evade tackles like a streaker dodging security at a Champions League game. He has great straight-line speed and can probably hit home runs if he’s given the space. Give him a wide zone offense that has him running routes from the gun.

Cons: Like I said, he’s not a good inside runner. He can ID the hole and scrape behind blocks, but he isn’t setting up angles or processing multiple levels. He would be even worse as a power runner- He would be a cut candidate if a power concept heavy team was stupid enough to take him.

BEST FITS - Bengals, 49ers, Dolphins, Jaguars

WORST FITS - Ravens, Browns, Seahawks, Titans

RANGE OF OUTCOMES

ORDERED FROM BEST FIT - CURRENT RANK - WORST FIT

RB7 - RB10 - RB15

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Keon Coleman, Florida State

Pros: Keon Coleman is a physically dominant player with strong hands and better movement skills than his size suggests. Coleman is at his best when brought up to speed on longer developing routes that get him a chance for the ball in the air or space to run after the catch. It is an argument whether he would operate best outside or from the slot, and I believe he should be moved all over. Let him stretch the safeties and take the best man corner at X, let him run crossers from the flanker, and put him vertically up the seam in the slot.

Cons: He is not a fantastically agile player, so going to a team that runs off of quick-hitting RPOs or timing spot throws would not be great for him. He needs time to move and space to operate, though I think he can capably run slants and other short-mid in cutting routes if need be.

BEST FITS - Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, 49ers

WORST FITS - Dolphins, Steelers, Titans, Raiders

RANGE OF OUTCOMES

ORDERED FROM BEST FIT, CURRENT RANK - WORST FIT

WR4 - WR6 - WR15

2. Xavier Worthy, Texas

Pros: lightning speed and super loose movement allows him to sort of whip himself around. Xavier Worthy can consistently create separation by disguising his speed with his quiet body language. He can track a ball over his head, and if he can bring that with consistency, then he could be a problem in the NFL right away. Though many think he is super legit, I am not the hugest fan. I can say with certainty that a team that uses him from the slot will have an instant seam-stretching mismatch that stresses defenses. He may end up being a better real-life asset than a fantasy one.

Cons: He is not lightning quick in short space, he's more of a long strider. He lacks some wiggle in his hips and isn’t necessarily much of a plus in the open field without a runway. The worst case for him is a team that tries to put too much on his plate. If he is made to be the sole creator in space on offense, he may struggle to reach consistency.

BEST FITS - 49ers, Texans, Seahawks, Dolphins

Worst Fits - Jets, Steelers, Falcons, Rams

RANGE OF OUTCOMES

ORDERED FROM BEST FIT - CURRENT RANK - WORST FIT

WR6 - WR9 - WR20

3. Johnny Wilson, Florida State

Pros: Johnny Wilson has some very unique traits, and the right team has great opportunity to utilize them. He’ll have the longest arms of any offensive player in the NFL and will carry enough agility to effectively get open from the slot. Hell, he had the most yards per game as the isolated receiver in all of college football last year. Bottom line, Wilson gets open.

Cons: He doesn’t have the long speed to get over the top quickly, even if he’s gained separation. Though he is tall, he is not the best vertical receiver because he can’t effectively jockey himself in a good position to go up for jump balls. He would be wasted if a team saw that he was 6’7” and stuck him at the X so he could be a ‘deep target.’

BEST FITS - Dolphins, 49ers, Falcons, Vikings

WORST FITS - Chargers, Cowboys, Broncos

RANGE OF OUTCOMES

ORDERED FROM BEST FIT - CURRENT RANK - WORST FIT

WR9 - WR15 - WR24

4. Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky

Pros: Unique skillset and great balance with the ball in his hands. Reads the field like a runningback and consistently breaks tackles. The team that uses Malachi Corley as a wideback will fare best. He needs touches around the line of scrimmage, whether that be screens, crossers, sweeps, or touch passes. He is an asset to have on the field as a play breaks down, as he can drift with the quarterback and be an issue in open space.

Cons: Won’t give a seam stretching presence to an offense. He cannot operate outside and will have to be schemed touches in some circumstances. It is a question of if you fit the offense for him or if you fit him into your existing one.

BEST FITS - Ravens, Commanders, Cardinals, Dolphins

WORST FITS - Cowboys, Lions, Chargers, Patriots

RANGE OF OUTCOMES

ORDERED FROM BEST FIT - CURRENT RANK - WORST FIT

WR12 - WR18 - WR25

5. Ainias Smith, Texas A&M

Pros: Ainias Smith is an electric player whose biggest lack is size. He runs good routes out of the slot that can threaten all levels of the field and is a good processor of space. He can uncover off the line of scrimmage vs man and sit in soft spots vs zone. He has dependable hands and faces up to the ball well when contested.

Cons: Obviously, his frame is the concern for the NFL as its tough to be 5-8.5 and 165 lbs. If he goes to a team that doesn’t keep him in the slot and let him cook, he probably will end up less effective.

BEST FITS - Patriots, Steelers, Browns, Giants

WORST FITS - Chargers, Bengals, Jets, Colts

RANGE OF OUTCOMES

ORDERED FROM BEST FIT - CURRENT RANK - WORST FIT

WR14 - WR21 - WR33

Thanks for reading! You can see more of my work on my Substack, or check out my Twitter for cool film clips I find