During the 2023 college football season, Caleb Williams has received an ungodly amount of hate. Now, yes, I understand that Williams is having a down year, but let’s stop acting like he’s having a bad season. When you post a Heisman-winning season, it’s tough to replicate that, especially when you’re in a horrible situation. Today I’m going to break down what the future holds for Williams in the dynasty football landscape.
2022 Heisman Season (Elite)
Coming off a stellar 2021 season at Oklahoma, where Caleb Williams took Spencer Rattler’s job, Williams decided to transfer to USC for his sophomore season. During that time, everything was going great for Williams as he threw for 4,537 yards, 42 touchdowns, and five interceptions.
In 2022, Williams had the third-best offensive line in the SEC, which was a massive help. On top of this, Williams had Jordan Addison, who didn’t have a stellar statistical season, but we know how talented he is. Williams was able to take full advantage of the weapons around him and post a Heisman winning sophomore season, skyrocketing his draft stock.
2023 Season (“Down Year”)
In 2023 USC had one of the worst defenses in college football, allowing nearly 35 PPG. To give some context Arkansas St has allowed 32.3 PPG… When Williams is put under that kind of pressure every single game, he has to play hero ball, which causes him to do too much. When watching the tape, this lines up as most of Williams’s bad plays are from him trying to create outside the pocket and forcing throws.
On top of this, USC’s offensive line dropped from third to eighth in the Pac-12. When you look at Williams’s stats, he had 11 rushing touchdowns, which is higher than 2022. However, Williams had 240 less rushing yards because sacks count as negative yards in college. Understanding this stat should help people understand that Williams still has some rushing upside at the next level, and this decreased statistic isn’t his fault.
Overall, Williams still looked phenomenal in 2023. Throwing for 3,633 yards, 30 touchdowns, and five interceptions is a great season, even if it’s not “improvement.” During his 2023 season, Williams showed off next-level arm talent, athleticism, accuracy, and unbelievable out-of-structure plays.
Future Dynasty Outlook
Right now, according to the 2024 rookie rankings on KTC, Marvin Harrison Jr is the consensus 1.01, which shouldn’t be the case. I love Harrison Jr as a prospect, but in a Superflex format, you need to push up these quarterbacks, especially the number one pick. Williams is being ranked at the 1.02, but if Jayden Daniels gets good draft capital, some owners will take him at the 1.01, similar to what happened with Anthony Richardson.
To me, the Williams hate is such a blatant case of prospect fatigue. Williams has been highly touted since his freshman season, which puts him on a pedestal, opening up a ton of room for criticism. I’m not concerned about Williams painting his nails and his camp asking for ownership in whatever team drafts him.
I’m going to let the NFL franchises that get to meet with him determine whether or not it’s a serious issue. Let’s not forget that Williams is a college kid, and it’s expected for him to mature at the next level. As long as Williams doesn’t slide in the NFL draft, he should be the consensus 1.01 in your Superflex rookie drafts.
