espn.com

Synopsis and Model Background

Dating back to last year, I've devoted hundreds of hours to analyzing data and advanced metrics that correlate to NFL success for Wide Receiver prospects. The draft model I developed evaluates each prospect based on a multitude of variables and metrics, each meticulously analyzed and weighed in proportion to their significance and correlation to NFL success. 

I've developed several composite scores directly influencing a prospect's grade, with each composite score comprising its own set of weighted metrics. The following scores are included:

Production Score: Accounts for a prospect's overall collegiate production along with production on a per-game basis

Efficiency Score: Takes into account several metrics such as YPRR, First Down & Touchdown Per Route Run, QBR when Targeted, etc.

Film Score: This is the one score that I directly outsource (as made obvious by my name) from several different sources which allows me to put together a quantifiable film score

Athletic Score: Takes into account athletic measurements, but also outsources scores such as RAS (Relative Athleticism Score) or PFF GAS (Game Athleticism Score)

Deep Threat Score: Accounts for how a prospect produces as a deep threat including metrics like Air Yards Per Target, Air Yardage %, speed, etc. 

YAC Score: Accounts for how a prospect produces as a YAC threat including metrics like Avoided Tackle Rate, YAC Per Reception, YAC %, etc. 

Multi-Threat Score: Accounts for how a prospect produces as a multi-threat receiver. Weighs a prospect's Deep Threat Score and YAC score along with other variables. 

My predictive draft model also incorporates multipliers that impact a prospect's grade. Some examples of these multipliers include: Competition Level, Size, Red Flags, and Age.

Analytical Prospect Rankings (11-20)

Grades range on a scale of 1-10

20 - Keon Coleman, FSU

Prospect Grade - 5.35 (Tier 6)

Prospect Composite Scores

- Production Score: 4.58

- Efficiency Score: 4.83

- Athletic Score: 8.60

- Deep Threat Score: 7.52

- YAC Score: 5.54

Positives

- Coleman's athletic measurements left a lot of people disappointed, especially after he ran a 4.61 40-time. However, Coleman's 20.3 mph speed during the gauntlet drill was the fastest by any receiver over the past two seasons. In layman's terms, the gauntlet drill tests how well receivers catch multiple passes and maintain speed while running in a straight line.

- One of the best hands in the draft class, dropping only 5 balls on 184 career targets. 

- Ranks top 10 in Touchdowns Per Route Run.

- 8th best in avoided tackle rate amongst predominantly outside receivers. 

Negatives

- Concerning career YPRR of 1.87 and YPRR vs Zone of 1.89, both of which rank 7th worst in the class. 

- Low catch rate (63%), ranking in the bottom 8 of the draft class. Ranks 19th in contested catch rate (46%). 

- Also ranks 7th-worst in the class in First Downs per Route Run. 

- Bottom 5 in PFF Grade vs Zone. 

- Low production profile. Dating back to 2020, the only good receivers drafted in the first two rounds with similar production profiles are Metcalf and Pickens. 8 other prospects with similar production profiles went on to do very little in the NFL. 

Model Comp(s)

Hit with a similar grade: Romeo Doubs (5.40 Grade)

Miss with a similar grade: N'Keal Harry (5.43 Grade)

19 - Jalen McMillan, Washington

Prospect Grade - 5.39 (Tier 6 )

Prospect Composite Scores

- Production Score: 4.98

- Efficiency Score: 4.64 

- Athletic Score: 8.65

- Deep Threat Score: 5.82

- YAC Score: 6.20

Positives

- Ranks top 10 in YPRR vs Man (2.37).

- Above-average breakout age of 19.7 (70th percentile). 

- I'll be honest, after reviewing McMillan's analytical profile, he might be the most average receiver I can find. He pretty much ranks average or below average in all of the important metrics, apart from YPRR vs Man and breakout age. Which in itself might be a positive as he isn't awful in any one metric (other than contested catch).

- Here are his class rankings in the following metrics: Drop Rate (20th), Career YPRR (20th), Touchdown Per Route Run (18th), PFF Grade vs Zone (18th), Athletic Score (18th), Career Catch Rate (16th), Avoided Tackle Rate (15th), First Down Per Route Run (15th), Production Score (12th). 

Negatives

Lowest contested catch rate (20%) in the class, by a significant margin. Next closest is Malachi Corley (27%). 

- As mentioned, overall a low Career YPRR (2.04), which ranks 20th in the class. 

- Low QBR when Targeted, 6th lowest in the class. 

- While he ranks 15th in avoided tackle rate, McMillan has the 3rd-worst avoided tackle rate (18%) amongst slot receivers. 

Model Comp(s):

Hit with a similar grade: Romeo Doubs (5.40 Grade)

Miss with a similar grade: Jalen Tolbert (5.39 Grade)

18 - Malachi Corley, WKU

Prospect Grade - 5.42 (Tier 6)

Prospect Composite Scores

- Production Score: 6.88

- Efficiency Score: 5.17

- Athletic Score: 7.93

- Deep Threat Score: 2.91

- YAC Score: 9.24

Positives

- Corley has the best YAC Score in the draft class (9.24) and ranks 6th in YAC Score amongst prospects dating back to 2020. Corley also has the most yards after catch of any prospect in my draft model dating back to 2020.

- While on the topic of YAC, Corley has the 3rd-best avoided tackle rate of any receiver in the class.

- Broke or evaded 77 tackles, 2nd most in FBS over the last 3 seasons. 

- Also has the 3rd best production profile, behind only Zakhari Franklin and Rome Odunze.

- Solid hands, 7th-best drop rate in the draft class. Corley also has a high catch rate (71%) which ranks 6th best.

- Ranks 11th in Touchdowns per Route Run and 12th in First Down Per Route Run. 

- 12th best Career YPRR (2.22), 9th best YPRR vs Man. 

Negatives

- 2nd-worst contested catch rate (27%) in the draft class.

- Relatively low in YPRR vs Zone (2.20), ranking 18th overall. 

- While Corley has solid production, he did it against a lower level of competition playing at Western Kentucky. 

- Corley has not, in any way, shown the ability to be any kind of deep threat. Yes, it makes sense as he gets most of his yardage after the catch. However, amongst all prospects with a YAC score of 9+, he has by far the worst Deep Threat Score. 

- Only 30% of Corley's yards came in the air, 3rd-worst of all prospects dating back to 2020. The only players he ranks ahead of are Rondale Moore and Anthony Schwartz. For what it's worth, Moore and Schwartz did it against Big 10 and SEC competition while Corley did it against C-USA competition. 

- Dating back to 2020, while Corley ranks 2nd-worst in Air Yards/Rec, he ranks only 16th-best in YAC/Rec. 

Model Comp(s)

Hit with a similar grade: Zay Flowers (5.53 Grade)

Jalen Tolbert: Tutu Atwell (5.53 Grade)

17 - Ja'Lynn Polk, Washington

Prospect Grade - 5.45 (Tier 6)

Prospect Composite Scores

- Production Score: 4.77

- Efficiency Score: 4.82

- Athletic Score: 8.73

- Deep Threat Score: 7.52

- YAC Score: 5.54

Positives

- Above-average athlete, scored a 8.85 RAS. 

- Top 10 in contested catch rate (51%) on 49 contested targets. 

- Versatility to play out wide and in the slot. Had 453 slot yards out of 1,159 receiving yards in 2023.

- Solid deep threat, caught 567 deep yards with a 13.8 ADOT in 2023. 49% of his production.

Negatives

- 4th worst First Down per Route Run in the draft class, also below average in Touchdown per Route Run. Both metrics are below a concerning threshold. Ranks in the 12th percentile for First Down per Route Run and 17th percentile in Touchdown per Route Run amongst 142 prospects. 

- 9th worst YPRR in draft class. Ranks 8th-worst in both YPRR vs Man and YPRR vs Zone, so performed poorly against both. 

- 7th worst PFF Grade vs Zone in draft class, 3rd worst PFF Grade vs Man. 

Model Comp(s)

Hit with a similar grade: Amon-Ra St. Brown (5.50 Grade)

Miss with a similar grade: N'Keal Harry (5.43 Grade)

16 - Johnny Wilson, FSU

Prospect Grade - 5.56 (Tier 5)

Prospect Composite Scores

- Production Score: 4.02

- Efficiency Score: 5.20

- Athletic Score: 9.55

- Deep Threat Score: 7.95

- YAC Score: 5.78

Positives

- Tight-end body playing Wide Receiver. Wilson is in the 99th percentile of height for receivers and has the longest wingspan of any receiver coming in the NFL in a long time. 

- Amazing athlete, 9.70 RAS. Ran an absurd 4.11 shuttle time at 231 lb. 

- Really impressive avoided tackle rate at 21%. This ranks 6th best amongst receivers who played the majority of snaps out wide.

- Wilson has a Career YPRR of 2.52 which is good for 8th best in the class. Has the 5th best YPRR vs Zone (2.75). 

- Solid First Down Per Route Run rate, ranking 8th best in the class. 

- FWIW, I like Johnny Wilson as a WR prospect. However, if he were to consider transitioning to Tight End, I believe he'd be the 2nd best Tight End prospect in the class. 

Negatives

- Despite having an insane wingspan and size over almost any defensive back, Wilson only caught 43% of his career-contested targets. 

- Awful hands, as evidenced by having the worst drop rate in the draft class and 5th worst drop rate of any receiver in the draft model. 

- Not only does Wilson have the worst drop rate in the class, he also ranks dead last in overall catch rate (56%).

- Wilson has a really poor Touchdown Per Route Run rate which is especially disappointing considering his size. Ranks 8th worst in the class. 

Model Comp(s)

Hit with a similar grade: Khalil Shakir (5.71 Grade)

Miss with a similar grade: Chase Claypool (5.81 Grade)

15 - Ricky Pearsall, Florida

Prospect Grade - 5.57 (Tier 5)

Prospect Composite Scores

- Production Score: 4.11

- Efficiency Score: 4.88

- Athletic Score: 9.75

- Deep Threat Score: 7.23

- YAC Score: 5.49

Positives

- Pearsall was one of 4 WRs in this draft class to achieve a 9.9 RAS or higher. In possibly the most athletic WR class in NFL history, Pearsall is near the top. Even more impressive is the fact that he competed in all the athletic testing drills at the combine and according to RAS, he had an elite composite score in speed, agility, and explosion. The only receiver to do so. 

- Along with elite athleticism, Pearsall also has great hands and ranks top 5 in drop rate. with only 6 drops on 234 career targets. 

- Pearsall has shown versatility to play out wide and in the slot, with a 59/41 career split (59% coming in the slot).

- Ranks about average in many other advanced metrics including: QBR when Targeted (21st), Contested Catch Rate (21st), YPRR vs Man (16th), Deep Threat Score (16th), PFF Grade vs Zone (13th), Career Catch Rate (12th), all of which play a factor in him ranking average overall. Pearsall ranks in the 57th percentile of the draft class and 54th percentile of all 142 prospects. 

Negatives

- While this could be attributed to having a higher ADOT, Pearsall ranks near the bottom in avoided tackle rate. 

- Ranks poorly in First Down Per Route Run (5th worst) and Touchdown Per Route Run (7th worst).

- Sub-2.0 Career YPRR and doesn't make up for it with a poor YPRR vs Zone (2.19) also.

- Older prospect, Pearsall will be 24 years old at the start of the season and had a late breakout age of 21 (36th percentile). 

Model Comp(s)

Hit with a similar grade: Tank Dell (5.68 Grade)

Miss with a similar grade: Tyquan Thornton (5.58 Grade)

14 - Jamari Thrash, Louisville

Prospect Grade - 5.65 (Tier 5)

Prospect Composite Scores

- Production Score: 4.89

- Efficiency Score: 5.86

- Athletic Score: 6.90

- Deep Threat Score: 6.78

- YAC Score: 6.99

Positives

- Top 10 in avoided tackle rate (25%), even more impressive considering was predominantly an outside receiver. How impressive? Thrash had the 2nd best avoided tackle rate amongst outside receiver 

- Impressive 2.52 Career YPRR, 8th best in the class. 2.72 YPRR vs Zone, 6th best in the class.

- Thrash performed will vs man and zone, as shown in his PFF Grade of 73+ vs Man and Zone, one of only 6 receivers to do so in the class. As mentioned earlier, he ranks 6th in YPRR vs Zone but also ranks 7th in YPRR vs Man.  

- Showcased the ability to be a reliable chain mover as he has the 7th-best First Down Per Route Run rate in the class. 

Negatives

- Tested subpar at the NFL combine and had a 6.77 RAS. Thrash had a 4.46 40-time, but only a 34-inch vertical and an awful 7.16 3-cone. 

- 3rd worst contested catch rate in the class, converting only 33% of his contested targets. In 2023, Thrash had a contested catch rate of 15.8%. 

- Dropped the 2nd most catches in the entire class with 17 drops on 260 career targets. He had 8 drops in 2023 alone. Overall, had the 7th worst drop rate. 

- Poor career catch rate, catching only 64% of his targets. Anything under 65% starts to become a concern. 

Model Comp(s)

Hit with a similar grade: Rashee Rice (5.75 Grade)

Miss with a similar grade: Mecole Hardman (5.69 Grade)

13 - Brenden Rice, USC

Prospect Grade - 5.87 (Tier 5)

Prospect Composite Scores

- Production Score: 4.08

- Efficiency Score: 6.02

- Athletic Score: 7.21

- Deep Threat Score: 7.04

- YAC Score: 6.68

Positives

- Ideal build and size to play outside. 

- Impressive 125.94 Career QBR when targeted, good for 6th best in this year's WR class.

- Despite poor agility testing, Rice had a high avoided tackle rate of 18%, one of the best for a predominantly outside receiver.

- Relatively low career YPRR, but Rice did excel against Zone with a YPRR vs Zone of 2.42. He also had a YPRR of 2.75 in 2023.

- Ranks 7th best in Touchdowns per Route Run. 

- Rice has one of the best breakout ages in the entire class, with a breakout age of 18.5 (96th percentile).

Negatives

- Average (probably below average for what teams actually want) athletic testing. Had an atrocious 4.45 shuttle time and ran a sub-4.5 40 time.

- Poor catch rate of 62%, ranking near the bottom of the class.

- Sub-par career YPRR of only 2.10. Slightly above a concerning threshold, but still a concern. His PFF grade vs Zone was also sub-par at 70.93.

- Ranks bottom 10 of the class in First Downs per Route Run.

- Low overall production profile, ranking bottom 10 in the class. Less production than Coleman in which I highlighted how he ranks amongst other prospects with low production profiles. 

Model Comp(s)

Hit with a similar grade: Michael Pittman (5.85 Grade)

Miss with a similar grade: Chase Claypool (5.81 Grade)

12 - Luke McCaffrey, Rice

Prospect Grade - 5.90 (Tier 5)

Prospect Composite Scores

- Production Score: 5.89

- Efficiency Score: 4.99

- Athletic Score: 9.40

- Deep Threat Score: 6.02

- YAC Score: 6.04

Positives

- Really good athlete who possesses elite agility skills. McCaffrey scored a 9.44 RAS with an elite composite agility grade that includes a 4.02 shuttle time and 6.70 3-cone.

- Surprisingly, McCaffrey ranks 1st in contested catch rate with a crazy contested catch rate of 62% for his career which is the same as his overall catch rate!

- McCaffrey has the 2nd-best PFF Grade vs Zone in the entire class, a PFF Grade vs Zone of 83.60. 

- McCaffrey has one of the best drop rates in the class, ranking top 10 and having only 8 drops on 208 career targets. For comparison's sake, he has half the drops on more career targets than Javon Baker.

- Despite not playing WR until his 4th year of college, McCaffrey has a decent production profile. Over the last two years, McCaffrey caught 129 Receptions for 1,715 receiving yards and 19 Receiving Touchdowns. That's more yardage and touchdowns than guys like Keon Coleman, Adonai Mitchell, and Xavier Leggete (tied for touchdowns with Coleman).

Negatives

- Similar to Rice and Baker, McCaffrey has a poor career catch rate (62%), ranking near the bottom of this year's WR class. 

- McCaffery had a low breakout age of 21.4, 27th percentile. Baker's breakout age of 20.5 ranked in the 48th percentile.

- Awful career QBR when targeted of 86.52, ranking dead last in the entire class.

- Atrocious vs Man with a YPRR vs Man of 1.74 and PFF Grade vs Man of 67.40, ranking near the bottom in both.

Model Comp(s)

Hit with a similar grade: Michael Pittman (5.85 Grade)

Miss with a similar grade: Skyy Moore (5.94 Grade)

11 - Javon Baker, UCF

(Prospect Grade - 5.92 (Tier 5)

Prospect Composite Scores

- Production Score: 4.22

- Efficiency Score: 5.73

- Athletic Score: 7.80

- Deep Threat Score: 8.12

- YAC Score: 5.78

Positives

- Prototypical size to play outside, but has also shown versatility to play in the slot.

- One of the best Career YPRR (2.53) and YPRR vs Zone (2.66) in the entire class, ranking top 6 in both.

- Surprisingly one of the only receivers listed in these rankings to break 1,000 yards in a season and has one of the most statistically impressive seasons. Baker had 1,139 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns with a ridiculous yards/rec of 21.9.

- Separated himself as one of the best deep threats in the class, with 574 of his 1,139 receiving yards coming as deep yards. That’s 50% of his production coming on deep yards.

- Ranks 9th best in First Down per Route Run

- Has an impressive contested catch rate of 56%, 4th best in the class.

Negatives

- Unimpressive athletic testing at the NFL combine. Scored a 7.83 RAS. 

- Has the 3rd worst career catch rate (60%) in the class.

- One of the worst Touchdown per Route Run rates in the class and ranks in the 27th percentile of the entire draft model.