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Dating back to last year, I've devoted hundreds of hours to analyzing data and advanced metrics that correlate to NFL success for Wide Receiver prospects. The draft model I developed evaluates each prospect based on a multitude of variables and metrics, each meticulously analyzed and weighed in proportion to their significance and correlation to NFL success.

 

I've developed several composite scores directly influencing a prospect's grade, with each composite score comprising its own set of weighted metrics. The following scores are included:

 

 

Production Score: Accounts for a prospect's overall collegiate production along with production on a per-game basis

Efficiency Score: Takes into account several metrics such as YPRR, First Down & Touchdown Per Route Run, QBR when Targeted, etc.

Film Score: This is the one score that I directly outsource (as made obvious by my name) from several different sources, which allows me to put together a quantifiable film score

Athletic Score: Takes into account athletic measurements but also outsources scores such as RAS (Relative Athleticism Score) or PFF GAS (Game Athleticism Score)

Deep Threat Score: Accounts for how a prospect produces as a deep threat including metrics like Air Yards Per Target, Air Yardage %, speed, etc. 

YAC Score: Accounts for how a prospect produces as a YAC threat, including metrics like Avoided Tackle Rate, YAC Per Reception, YAC %, etc. 

Multi-Threat Score: Accounts for how a prospect produces as a multi-threat receiver. Weighs a prospect's Deep Threat Score and YAC score along with other variables. 

 

My predictive draft model also incorporates multipliers that impact a prospect's grade. Some examples of these multipliers include: Competition Level, Size, Red Flags, and Age. Without further delay, please enjoy my prospect rankings 21-30. Analytical Prospect Rankings (6-10). Grades range on a scale of 1-10

 

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5 - Ladd McConkey

(Prospect Grade: 6.67, Tier 3)

 

Prospect Composite Scores

Production Score: 3.38

Efficiency Score: 7.11

Athletic Score: 9.10

Deep Threat Score: 6.05

YAC Score: 7.35

 

Positives

 

- Ladd McConkey is a significantly better athlete than he gets credit for. 9.34 RAS, which is one of the best an in already historically athletic draft class

 

- Elite composite speed profile and elite composite agility profile. If you're going to be undersized, it's good to be an elite athlete to make up for it.

 

- Career YPRR of 2.54, 5th best in the draft class

 

- 3.05 YPRR vs Zone, 3rd best in the draft class, only behind MHJ and Malik Nabers.

 

- Contested catch rate of 53%, which is extremely impressive given his size. Tied for 4th best in the draft class.

 

- Caught over 75% of his targets in college. Also impressive considering McConkey had an ADOT for his career of over 12.5 yards. 

 

- While I believe McConkey's best role is outside wide receiver, he does have inside/outside versatility. 70% of snaps played out wide, and 30% of snaps in the slot.

 

- Fourth-best career QBR when targeted in the draft class.

 

- Avoided tackle rate of over 25% for his career. 7th best in the draft class and 2nd best amongst wide recviers that played majority of snaps outside.

 

- 3rd best First Down Per Route Run rate in the draft class.

 

- McConkey ranks in the 88th percentile of the predictive draft model, currently the 17th overall prospect out of 142 prospects. 

 

- 12 prospects rank ahead of McConkey who currently plays in the NFL. The two prospects ranked below are Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua. 79% of these prospects have averaged at least 10+ Fantasy PPG in their career and have finished as a WR2 at least once. 50% have finished as a WR1. 

 

Negatives

 

- McConkey is the only prospect that had no breakout age, which is a major concern in his analytical profile. 

 

- Undersized for an outside wide receiver. Flagged by multiple scouts for low play strength.

 

- Arm length only 30 1/4" which is 10th percentile. Hand size 8 5/8", only 6th percentile.

 

- Low production profile. 4th lowest production amongst receivers projected to go in the first three rounds.

 

- History of injuries which is one of the reason for low production in college. 

 

- Drop rate of 8% on 158 career targets. Does not have the cleanest hands.

 

- Despite having 4.39 speed, not considered to be a deep threat. 4th lowest air yards per target amongst receivers projected to go in the first three rounds. Half of drops came on deep ball targets, deep ball tracking might be a concern.

 

Model Comp(s)

 

Hit with a similar grade: Garrett Wilson (6.73 Grade)

 

Miss with a similar grade: Jameson Williams (6.86 Grade)

 

 

4 - Troy Franklin

(Prospect Grade: 7.02, Tier 3)

 

Prospect Composite Scores

Production Score: 5.68

Efficiency Score: 6.93

Athletic Score: 8.95

Deep Threat Score: 7.51

YAC Score: 5.86

 

Positives

 

- Troy Franklin is a plus athlete. In a wide receiver class filled with elite athletes, many were disappointed in Franklin not being one of the elite. Despite that, Franklin still tested well above average in both composite speed and explosive scoring.

 

- Finished with the 9th best Game Athleticism Score according to PFF in the class and ranks in the 92nd percentile of all college athletes. PFF GAS measures a player's athleticism in-game. This may put to rest the concerns some have over his play speed. 

 

- From an advanced metric perspective, Franklin meets all the necessary benchmarks and thresholds (and then some) in many of the important metrics. 

 

- Franklin had the 2nd best career QBR of all prospects in this year’s wide receiver class.

 

- Franklin’s 2.63 career YPRR is 3rd best in this year’s wide receiver class. Only behind MHJ and Nabers.

 

- One of the best deep threats in the class and has excellent after-the-catch ability.

 

- Graded out well as a multi-threat with speed and separation ability to make explosive plays while also having YAC ability. 

 

- Franklin has an 18% avoided tackle rate which almost doubles Marvin Harrison Jr’s rate of 10% and is one of the best for an outside receiver. 

 

- Historically, Franklin grades out as the 15th overall prospect in my predictive draft model out of 142 prospects. Similar to McConkey, 14 NFL prospects rank in this range (11 above, three below). 55% of prospects ahead of Franklin have finished as a WR1. 

 

Negatives

 

- Major weight concerns. Given his height, weighing in at 176 at the combine is a potential red flag. However, given the success recently of undersized, underweight wide receivers, this may be less of a concern than it previously would have been.

 

- While I describe Franklin as a plus athlete, he did test poorly in the shuttle and average in the 3-come, so his agility metrics are below average. 

 

- Many believe Franklin failed the “eye test” at the NFL combine. He looked slow, delayed, or out of order in many of the drills and his play speed was slower than many of the receivers that ran a slower 40 time than he did. This raises concerns about his play speed.

 

- Contested catch ability leaves a lot to be desired. Franklin’s contested catch ability is seen as a red flag for many scouts. I do believe Franklin has sufficient contested catch ability and his 38% contested catch rate doesn’t fall below any min. thresholds.

 

- For comparison, some wide receiver prospects with similar or worse contested catch rates: Deebo Samuel (42%), Zay Flowers (41%), DK Metcalf (36%), Brandon Aiyuk (21%). Even a big-bodied wide receiver like Pittman had a contested catch rate of 45%.

 

Model Comp(s)

 

Hit with a similar grade: AJ Brown (7.09 Grade)

 

Miss with a similar grade: Henry Ruggs (7.33 Grade)

 

 

3 - Rome Odunze

(Prospect Grade: 7.20, Tier 2)

 

Prospect Composite Scores

Production Score: 7.11

Efficiency Score: 6.93

Athletic Score: 9.85

Deep Threat Score: 7.38

YAC Score: 5.55

 

Positives

 

- Rome Odunze had a phenomenal combine and put himself in contention for the most athletic prospect in this year's class. Odunze scored a 9.92 in RAS, which gives him the second-best score in the class. While he was never tabbed as a speedster, Odunze ran a 4.45 40-yard dash, phenomenal at his size. Odunze also had great explosive numbers and an elite shuttle score of 4.03.

 

- Along with his athletic measurements, Odunze has excellent size and is the ideal prospect to be a team's primary X-receiver.

 

- Odunze had an elite breakout age of 19.3, ranking in the 84th percentile of prospects.

 

- Odunze has the best production profile of any prospect projected in the top 5 rounds. He ranks 3rd overall, behind Jacob Cowing and Zakhari Franklin, both of who played against C-USA competition for most of their careers.

 

- Odunze's impressive 2023 season includes 1,639 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns, with an impressive yards/rec of 17.8. Half of Odunze's receiving yards came on deep receptions, proving he can be a +deep-threat in the NFL.

 

- While Odunze's career contested catch rate is average (53%), he caught 75% of his contested targets in 2023. He caught 21 out of 28 contested targets.

 

- Odunze has a career drop rate of 5%, 15 drops on 328 career targets. However, Odunze had only two drops in 2023 on 140 targets.

 

- Odunze has a career YPRR of 2.50 and YPRR vs Zone of 2.65, both of which rank top-10 in the draft class. While not particularly impressive, it is significantly above any concerning threshold and is above players like Drake London, Tank Dell, Deebo Samuel, George Pickens, Rashee Rice, and Michael Pittman Jr.

 

- Odunze has the 6th best First Down Per Route Run in the draft class.

 

- Odunze has an impressive PFF Grade vs Zone of 79.73, 4th best in the class. Odunze's PFF Grade vs Man in 2023 was 89.5, highlighting he can be both a zone and man beater in the NFL.

 

- Odunze impressed as a screen threat, with 175 yards on 18 screen receptions, good for almost 10 yards per reception in the screen game.

 

- Not a metric I personally tracked, but per Matt Harmon's Reception Perception Chart, Odunze is the first WR in 4 years to have all-green among ten different route trees. I believe this highlights Odunze's diverse and impressive route-running ability.

 

- Odunze ranks as the 12th overall prospect in my predictive draft model out of 142 prospects, with a prospect grade of 7.21. He grades out most similarly to Chris Olave (7.61), Marquise Brown (7.38), Henry Ruggs (7.33), Jerry Jeudy (7.19), AJ Brown (7.09), Garrett Wilson (6.73), and Puka Nacua (6.72). While this is somewhat hit or miss, I don't think any of these guys became true "busts" outside of maybe Ruggs which was attributed to obvious off-the-field issues. Even someone like Jerry Jeurdy, who may be the worst of the group, just secured a sizeable contract from Cleveland.

 

Negatives

 

- Despite playing with a QB with one of the highest QBR's in the nation, Odunze has a mediocre QBR when targeted, ranking 18th in the class. Not a huge concern, but it is noteworthy.

 

- Odunze ranks fairly low in TD Per Route Run, 18th in the class, and 74th overall. Despite his size, Odunze doesn't have particularly impressive touchdown numbers for his career.

 

- Odunze's 15% avoided tackle rate ranks 24th in the class. However, this could be attributed to him having a relatively high ADOT and averaging 10 air yards per reception. Amongst 13 players who average 10+ air yards/reception, Odunze is tied for 5th.

 

- While he had an impressive 75% contested catch rate in 2023, Odunze had a contested catch rate of 29.6% prior to 2023. Contested catch ability is volatile, and it may be hard to predict whether Odunze's 2023 is more reflective of his contested catch ability or his prior three years.

 

- Similar to Nabers, while not necessarily any red flags or huge negatives, Odunze ranks middle of the pack in many advanced metrics and doesn't stand out in any one. Less of a concern and more noteworthy.

 

Model Comp(s)

 

Hit with a similar grade: Chris Olave (7.61 Grade)

 

Miss with a similar grade: Jerry Jeurdy (7.19)

 

 

2 - Malik Nabers

(Prospect Grade: 7.65, Tier 1)

 

Prospect Composite Scores

Production Score: 6.55

Efficiency Score: 6.95

Athletic Score: 9.80

Deep Threat Score: 6.85

YAC Score: 7.53

 

Positives

 

- According to his Pro Day, Malik Nabers ran an unofficial 4.35 40-yard dash and had a 42-inch vertical. Nabers has an unofficial RAS of 9.88, making him yet another elite athlete in this year's draft. According to PFF's in-game athleticism metric "GAS", Nabers ranked in the 99th percentile for in-game athleticism.

 

- Nabers had an impressive breakout age of only 19 years old.

 

- Nabers has an outrageous avoided tackle rate of 31% which ranks him first in this year's class and is the 3rd best amongst prospects taken in the top 5 rounds dating back to 2019. Nabers forced 30 missed tackles in 2023.

 

- Nabers has a career YPRR of 2.83, 2nd-best behind MHJ. He also has the 2nd-best YPRR vs Zone with 3.02.

 

- Starting to sound repetitive, but Nabers also has the 2nd-best First Down Per Route Run, also behind MHJ.

 

- Nabers has the 8th-best career QBR when targeted in the class.

 

- Nabers has an impressive catch rate of 69% and contested catch rate of 50%.

 

- Nabers is one of the most productive receivers in this year's class and has the 2nd best production profile amongst prospects projected in the top 3 rounds.

 

- In 2023, Nabers has 1,568 yards and 14 touchdowns in only 13 games with a PFF Grade of 92.9 and a YPRR of 3.64.

 

- Nabers can play anywhere on the field and excels out wide and in the slot. 991 of Nabers' 1,568 yards came in the slot.

 

- Not only is Nabers phenomenal in the open space and his YAC ability might be his biggest strength, but he also showed he can excel as a deep threat. Nabers had 624 deep yards in 2023.

 

- Amongst 142 prospects in my predictive draft model, Nabers is the 9th ranked prospect. He is behind the following: Ja'Marr Chase, Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, CeeDee Lamb, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Justin Jefferson, and Chris Olave. 

 

Negatives

 

- While not too concerning, Nabers does have a mediocre drop rate of 5%, with 15 drops on 275 career targets.

 

- Some of the negatives I will list off aren't really negatives, but more so highlighting how Nabers ranks amongst previous prospects in some metrics.

 

- Nabers rankings for the following metrics: Career YPRR (21st), TD Per Route Run (60th), First Down Per Route Run (14th), YPRR vs Zone (23rd), PFF Grade vs Zone (60th), Career QBR When Targeted (36th), Drop Rate (79th).

 

- Again, many of these aren't really negatives or red flags. They do highlight that while I do consider Nabers a great prospect. he doesn't rank in the top tier for any one metric (outside of avoided tackle rate).

 

- Nabers size isn't a concern, but being only 200 lb does leave you wondering if he can be a true X-Receiver or if he's better off in the slot half the time. This isn't a knock as someone like CeeDee has shown they can put up elite numbers while moving around.

 

Model Comp(s)

 

Hit with a similar grade: Justin Jefferson (7.70 Grade), Chris Olave (7.61 Grade)

 

Miss with a similar grade: Henry Ruggs (7.33 Grade)

 

 

1 - Marvin Harrison Jr

(Prospect Grade: 7.92, Tier 1)

 

Prospect Composite Scores

Production Score: 6.46

Efficiency Score: 7.91

Athletic Score: 9.45

Deep Threat Score: 8.23

YAC Score: 5.08

 

Positives

 

- On paper, it was noted that Marvin Harrison Jr  broad jumped 10'8" and had an elite short-shuttle time of 3.94 seconds. He also "planned" to run in the 4-3 second range in the 40-yard dash, but obviously no proof of that. Harrison also reportedly bench presses 380 points and squats 500 pounds. While we don't have all the on-paper numbers, I don't think Harrison's athletic ability should ever be in question.

 

- Harrison leads the wide receiver class in some of the most important advanced metrics. That includes leading in every route run metric and near the top in every per-target metric. Harrison leads all wide receiver's in career YPRR, touchdowns per route run, and first downs per route run. Harrison also leads all wide receiver's with a career YPRR vs Zone of 3.30. Harrison has the best PFF Grade vs Zone with a grade of 85.20. Harrison also has the best career PFF grades in the draft class.

 

- Something that I'm surprised isn't brought up enough, but Harrison has a drop rate of only 4% with 10 drops on 248 career targets. That's a lower drop-rate than Adonai Mitchell who I consistently see praised for his hands. Harrison is top-5 in both QBR when targeted and contested catch rate in the wide receiver class.

 

Negatives

 

- Harrison has a surprisingly low avoided tackle rate of only 10%. Whether because of scheme or ability, Harrison doesn't have impressive YAC numbers. Harrison has a relatively low catch rate of only 63% which is in the bottom quartile of the wide receiver class.

- Not necessarily a negative, but for his analytical profile, Harrison might not be as elite of a prospect as others. Harrison an amazing prospect, but I don't think he's necessarily generational. IMO, he's still the best prospect since Ja'Marr Chase. Harrison has good contested catch ability, not great. Not a concern.

 

Model Comp(s)

 

Hit with a similar grade: CeeDee Lamb (7.99 Grade), 

 

Miss with a similar grade: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (7.90 Grade)