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The first round of the NFL draft will begin on Thursday, April 25, at 8 p.m. ET. For dynasty rookie drafts, this is when we get landing spots and draft capital. Landing spots can be subjective, but draft capital is not. The big question is how much does draft capital matter. Specifically, how much does draft capital matter at the wide receiver position for dynasty fantasy football? I used draft capital and wide receiver fantasy performance (drafted 2013-2021) in order to determine varying levels of success based on their NFL draft capital.
Research Criteria and Process
The goal was to find out which wide receivers made a difference for your dynasty teams, specifically aiming for the top 24 seasons, as these seasons could drastically help dynasty teams win a championship. I used fantasypros.com fantasy finish database with half PPR and full season fantasy rankings, excluding the final week of the season when most fantasy championships are already over (full PPR for 2013 and 2014 when half PPR was unavailable on fantasypros.com).
According to the study, a top-6 season was considered elite. A top-12 season was considered great. A top-24 season was considered helpful. A wide receiver’s dynasty career could be considered one of the following: elite, great, helpful, one-hit wonder, or a bust. For wide receivers drafted between 2013 and 2019, I used the following criteria:
- Elite: Had 2+ elite seasons or had one elite season and 3+ great seasons.
- Great: Had 2+ great or better seasons or had one great or better season and 3+ helpful seasons.
- Helpful: Had 2+ helpful or better seasons
- One-hit wonder: Had only one helpful or better season
- Bust: Never had a helpful or better season
For wide receivers drafted in 2020 or 2021, I used slightly different criteria because they have not yet had the opportunity to accumulate as many helpful or better seasons. For wide receivers drafted in 2020 and 2021, I used the following criteria:
- Elite: Had 2+ elite seasons or had one elite season and 1+ great seasons.
- Great: Had 2+ great or better seasons or had one great or better season and 1+ helpful seasons.
- Helpful: Had 2+ helpful or better seasons
- One-hit wonder: Had only one helpful or better season
- Bust: Never had a helpful or better season
Results
Round 1
ELITE: 17%
GREAT: 20%
HELPFUL: 3%
1-HIT WONDER: 17%
BUST: 43%
Round 2
ELITE: 9%
GREAT: 13.5%
HELPFUL: 7%
1-HIT WONDER: 13.5%
BUST: 57%
Round 3
ELITE: 5%
GREAT: 3%
HELPFUL: 13.5%
1-HIT WONDER: 3%
BUST: 75.5%
Round 4
ELITE: 3%
GREAT: 0%
HELPFUL: 0%
1-HIT WONDER: 0%
BUST: 97%
Round 5
ELITE: 5%
GREAT: 0%
HELPFUL: 0%
1-HIT WONDER: 2.5%
BUST: 92.5%
Round 6
ELITE: 0%
GREAT: 0%
HELPFUL: 0%
1-HIT WONDER: 0%
BUST: 100%
Round 7
ELITE: 0%
GREAT: 0%
HELPFUL: 0%
1-HIT WONDER: 0%
BUST: 100%
Data Deep Dive
1st round
Originally, I was going to cut the first round into segments, but the results of the first half of round 1 and the second half are very similar. From picks 1-16 and 17-32, there were seven helpful or better players in each group, six great or better players from 1-16 and 7 from 17-32. There were 7 busts in picks 1-16 versus 9 in picks 17-32. Overall, the results are very comparable.
2nd round
Similarly, in the 2nd round, there were four great or elite wide receivers picked early in the 2nd versus exactly four great to elite wide receivers picked in the second half of the second round.
1st Versus 2nd round
This data makes the most sense. The numbers get a little worse across the board from the first to the second round, as we would expect.
2nd Round Vs 3rd Round
A lot of time the term day two draft capital gets thrown around as a barometer for chance of success. This study shows that not all day twos are the same. There is a large gap in success rate between 2nd and 3rd round draft capital at wide receiver. 22.5% versus 8% chance of a great or better player and almost a 20% higher rate on busts for 3rd round players. The biggest surprise was the drop-off from round 2 to 3 was bigger than round 1 to 2.
Day 3
Day three is bad. 100% bust rate for round 6 and round 7. No player has ever had a top-24 season. Even if we look at 2022 and 2023, it is not very promising. 2022 arguably has Bo Melton as the most promising player. 2023 has Trey Palmer as arguably the most promising player.
Also, there is a low hit rate for rounds four and give. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the only round four hit since 2013. Romeo Doubs is potentially the most promising player moving forward from 2022 and 2023 who finished as WR35 last season. Round five has been the most successful day 3 round for wide receivers. Hunter Renfrow was a one-hit wonder. Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill are both elite. Puka Nacua is well on his way to elite status and Dontayvion Wicks is showing promise.
What If We Add in a WR25-36 Grouping?
If the requirement to be in a category between bust and helpful was to have 2+ seasons as WR36 or better, then we could take five players out of the bust category from 2013 to 2021. We can name that category desperation flexes and it would include Corey Davis from round 1, Sterling Shepard and Curtis Samuel in round two, Michael Gallup in round three, and Jamison Crowder in round four. This is still heavily leaning towards the earlier rounds, only going as low as round four for any true usefulness, and would still leave rounds six and seven with a 100% bust rate.
Conclusion
The biggest takeaway is the bust rate for rounds six and seven. It has never happened during this study's timeframe. All round six and seven wide receivers' can be safely faded for fantasy drafts until someone proves this narrative false. Even undrafted free agents (UDFAs) have a higher success rate during this time frame with players like Adam Thielen and Jakobi Meyers.
In general, for rookie drafts, ensure an appropriate ADP gap between rounds 1-2 wide receivers and round three wide receivers. If there is not, fade round three wide receivers and work harder to trade up to the round 2 range. 2024 is such a stacked wide receiver class that this may not apply to the full degree this season. If the draft pushes or even breaks the record for wide receivers drafted in the first two rounds, the logic should hold. If the talent is gradually distributed through the third round, I would bet on an outlier year based on 2024’s depth of talent. A link to my final 2024 pre-draft rankings can be found below.
Only pick a couple of dart throws each season from rounds 4-5, but do not over-invest. The odds of a complete bust are over 95%, but it is still worth a shot as elites emerge from this range.
