cddesigned
With the NFL Draft wrapped up, offenses have a bunch of new shiny pieces for their offenses. One that immediately jumped out to me and almost seemed too predictable to expect was Xavier Worthy being drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs. A lot of people instantly thought about the deep bombs he could be getting from Patrick Mahomes but I wanted to take a look at what we could expect from him in year one and then going forward after that.
2024 Campaign
Let’s start by taking a look at the receivers and tight ends that Worthy has for target competition at the time of writing this. Notable receivers the Chiefs currently have are:
- Marquise Brown
- Rashee Rice
- Justin Watson
- Kadarius Toney
- Skyy Moore
- Cornell Powell
- Justyn Ross
Rashee Rice, Justin Watson, and Justyn Ross don’t fit Worthy’s skill set, but you could argue the rest have similarities to Worthy. Marquise Brown and Worthy both having vertical ability. Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Cornell Powell have quick twitch to operate underneath and in YAC situations.
Notable tight ends they currently have are:
- Travis Kelce
- Noah Gray
- Irv Smith
- Jared Wiley
- Baylor Cupp
So, it’s still basically Travis Kelce and a bunch of tight ends that haven’t proven themselves in the NFL yet. I’m not overly concerned about tight ends taking available targets away.
Using first down as a gauge of tendencies, the Chiefs used 11 personnel (1 tight end and one back) on 50% of their first downs and 12 personnel (2 tight ends and 1 back) 27% of the time last year. Rashee Rice's suspension is still undetermined at the time of writing this, but assuming it isn’t a year-long suspension since he wasn’t gambling while driving, he likely will take a majority, if not all, of the snaps in both of these formations, thanks to his blocking ability.
For the 12 personnel packages that leave one spot, which I think will rotate between Justin Watson, mostly for run plays, and Brown, mostly for pass plays. I think Worthy will get sprinkled in, but I would be surprised if he gets the snap share that Rice was able to get as a rookie.
While Worthy might get snubbed in 12 personnel looks, I expect him to get a lot of run in 11 personnel looks, which will be more beneficial if they run them at a 50% rate. Assuming Rice and Brown are the first two players out in those formations with Brown playing outside like he has for most of his career and Rice continuing to get the bulk of his work from the slot, it then comes down to Worthy earning that third spot over Watson, Toney, Moore, Powell, and Ross.
If we ignore Watson for now, that leaves us with Toney (who has struggled with consistency), Moore (who has struggled in creating separation), Justyn Ross (who has been battling injuries since college and just dealt with a long suspension of his own), and Powell (who hasn’t recorded a reception in his first three seasons). So, I think we can safely eliminate Ross and Powell from the equation.
Per PFF, Toney split 50% of his receiver snaps in the slot and on the outside as a flanker with 18 snaps in the backfield. Moore had nearly two-thirds of his snaps outside as the flanker, with the other one-third in the slot, and had 15 snaps from the backfield. So, we are primarily looking at slot and flanker opportunities (both roles Worthy played a lot in college).
They both were used heavily in motion and schemed plays to maximize YAC opportunities, but Toney struggled with drops to minimize his impact, and Moore wasn’t dynamic enough to justify him getting more of these targets. So, it’s easy to see Worthy taking the reins to provide more consistent hands than Toney and more dynamic playmaking and speed than Moore.
Worthy is advertised as a vertical/speed threat but he was actually not the most productive vertical threat while at Texas. Some of that could be tied to Quinn Ewers but he was used more as an underneath threat with plays designed to get him open and used his quick route running to win under safeties. While it might be disappointing for those expecting Worthy to catch bombs every game (which he still could), this versatility makes it easy to see him taking over Toney and Moore’s role.
So this all sounds great, but we still have to talk about the elephant in the room, Justin Watson, who I think will be more frustrating for Worthy followers early on than most probably want to admit. Like Brown in their 12 personnel looks, I would expect Watson to get some plays over Worthy in run plays. I can also see Watson getting a fair share of receiving opportunities since Reid and Mahomes and shown trust in him. However, the team clearly showed trust in Worthy, trading up for him and selecting him in the first round. So, while I think it could be a bit of a slower start as he earns his spot over Watson, I think the Chiefs showed their hands that they will want to turn to Worthy as the year goes on.
The big question mark that could actually expedite Worthy earning his spot with the offense is Rice’s suspension. If he gets suspended for a significant part of the season, that would likely push Worthy into Rice’s slot role as he can provide more over other options like Toney and Moore and push Watson into the flanker/other outside role opposite of Brown. This immediately gives Worthy a chance to prove himself and may help give him an edge over Watson when Rice returns from suspension.
So, we have the stage set for Worthy to potentially get significant playing time depending on Rice’s suspension and have a fair number of vacated targets, with 95 from Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jerrick McKinnon, and Mecole Hardman leaving. The majority of those will likely go to Marquise Brown, but he has dealt with injury issues in the past, and Rice’s suspension potentially opens up the 6.4 targets he was averaging per week.
Also, Toney and Moore both had 38 targets each last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Worthy takes all of those targets, if not all, for the already mentioned reasons. With all of that going for Worthy, I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned into a high-end to mid-WR2 like Rice did in the second half of last year.
Finally, since I’m sure it will come up, I want to address the “Andy Reid doesn’t use rookie” argument that I pushed back against when Rice was drafted. People used this due to a lack of production as rookies for Skyy Moore, Mecole Hardman, Chris Conley, Albert Wilson, and probably some other receivers I’m forgetting about. However, people seem to ignore that he heavily relied on Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson, Tyreek Hill, and Rashee Rice.
What’s the big difference between the first group and the second group? The second group is a group of very talented receivers that proved they earned those snaps. Reid had a streak of getting shaky receivers drafted to him, which gave the impression that he doesn’t use rookies but has proven to play the most talented and reliable players. At least from my eval of Worthy, I think he fits the bill as a talented player.
Year Two and Beyond (Keeper/Dynasty)
For anyone in keeper leagues, it’s hard to imagine better value that you could get from someone like Worthy. As I mentioned, I think Worthy could provide some immediate year-one impact, especially in the second half of the year during the playoff push. Next year, though, I think he could really break out.
Marquise Brown was only signed to a one-year contract, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he moves on to a team that will give him a longer deal if he stays healthy and plays great. Brown’s departure would not only open up a ton of targets in general but would open up a lot of the deep targets that Worthy will likely get worked into as the year goes on. Also, outside of Rice and an aging Kelce, there are still so few weapons for Mahomes to throw to, so it’s hard not to see him become a big piece of the offense if he stays healthy and proves himself this year. While he may only peak at WR2 production this year, I could easily see him finishing as a WR1 for 2025 if Brown leaves.
Conclusion
Even as someone who was skeptical of Worthy going into the draft, the upside is undeniable, and the fit is just about as perfect as you could hope. I could see him being a strong flex play during Rice’s suspension and in the second half of his rookie year. Beyond this year, I think he could become a WR1 in scoring and will be a force for managers who are able to get their hands on him. I understand not wanting to be fooled into the next guy with a great 40, but the talent and situation are all aligning in this case.
