For those who don't know, I've put together a Rookie Wide Receiver Rankings series based on a predictive draft model I developed dating back to last year. I've devoted hundreds of hours to analyzing data and advanced metrics that correlate to NFL success for Wide Receiver prospects and from there decided to develop a draft model that evaluates each prospect based on a multitude of variables and metrics.
Each is meticulously analyzed and weighed in proportion to their significance and correlation to NFL success. I won't go too much into the model here, but if you are interested in the articles you can view them here
I created similar, though not as much time spent on them, models for both running Backs and tight Ends. While these models are in their early stages, I will still use the results from them to influence these rankings. Unfortunately, I did not develop one for quartbacks. So like everyone else, I will have to go off film, gut, and preference when factoring them into these rankings (with a little bit of data analytics mixed in).
These rankings will part slightly from my original wide receiver rankings as this is geared towards dynasty rookie drafts. I will get straight into the rankings and for those interested in additional information or context, I will provide under the rankings with additional breakdowns.
2024 Dynasty Rookie Rankings (Post-Draft)
Round One
1.01 - Marvin Harrison Jr., WR1, AZ (Tier 1, 7.93 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
1.02 - Malik Nabers, WR2, NYG (Tier 1, 7.62 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
1.03 - Caleb Williams, QB1, CHI (Tier 1, 7.39 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
1.04 - Rome Odunze, WR3, CHI (Tier 2, 7.21 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
1.05 - Brock Bowers, TE1, LV (Tier 2, 7.48 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
1.06 - Ladd McConkey, WR4, CHI (Tier 3, 6.83 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
1.07 - Jayden Daniels, QB2, WAS (Tier 3, 6.91 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
1.08 - Jonathon Brooks, RB1, CAR (Tier 3, 7.23 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
1.09 - Trey Benson, RB2, AZ (Tier 3, 7.22 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
1.10 - Xavier Worthy, WR5, KC (Tier 4, 6.16 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
1.11 - Drake Maye, QB3, NE (Tier 4, 6.69 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
1.12 - JJ McCarthy, QB4, MIN (Tier 4, 6.35 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
Round Two
2.01 - Troy Franklin, WR6, DEN (Tier 4, 6.69 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
2.02 - Brian Thomas Jr., WR7, JAX (Tier 4, 6.15 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
2.03 - Devontez Walker, WR7, BAL(Tier 4, 6.31 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
2.04 - Ricky Pearsall, WR8, SF (Tier 4, 5.61 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
2.05 - Jermaine Burton, WR9, CIN (Tier 5, 6.00 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
2.06 - Blake Corum, RB3, LAR (Tier 5, 6.45 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
2.07 - Bo Nix, QB5, DEN (Tier 5.5, 5.90 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
2.08 - Michael Penix Jr., QB6, ATL (Tier 5.5, 6.01 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
2.09 - Ja'Lynn Polk, WR10, NE (Tier 6, 5.23 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
2.10 - Keon Coleman, WR11, BUF (Tier 6, 5.11 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
2.11 - Adonai Mitchell, WR12, IND (Tier 6, 5.10 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
2.12 - Xavier Legette, WR13, CAR (Tier 6, 4.40 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
Round Three
3.01 - Roman Wilson, WR, PIT(Tier7 , 5.87 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
3.02 - Javon Baker, WR, NE (Tier 7 , 5.64 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
3.03 - Ben Sinnott, TE, WAS (Tier 7, 5.60 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
3.04 - Luke McCaffrey, WR, WAS (Tier 7, 5.60 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
3.05 - Malachi Corley, WR, NYJ (Tier 7, 5.10 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
3.06 - Audric Estime, RB, DEN (Tier 8, 5.57 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
3.07 - Isaac Guerendo, RB, SF (Tier 8, 5.53 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
3.08 - Marshawn Lloyd, RB, GB(Tier 8, 5.84 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
3.09 - Tyrone Tracy, RB, NYG(Tier 8, 5.34 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
3.10 - Jaylen Wright, RB, MIA (Tier 8, 5.24 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
3.11 - Braelon Allen, RB, NYJ (Tier 8, 5.78 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
3.12 - Theo Johnson, TE, NYG (Tier 9, 5.45 Fantasy Prospect Grade)
Rounds 1-2 Breakdown
1.01 - Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, AZ (Tier 1: Superstars, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 8.00)
Marvin Harrison Jr is an absolute stud and as safe of a prospect as you can ask for. To top it off, he went to a perfect team to be fed targets from a good quarterback. In my model, Harrison Jr graded out most similarly to CeeDee Lamb and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The only wide receivers ahead of him are: Ja’Marr Chase, Devonta Smith, CeeDee Lamb, and Jaylen Waddle. While not all are fantasy superstars, all of them have finished as a WR1 and are great NFL receivers.
1.02 - Malik Nabers, WR, NYG (Tier 1: Superstars, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 7.70)
Much like Harrison Jr, Nabers has found himself in an ideal situation to capitalize on an abundance of opportunities. He's the best receiver in the class when it comes to winning all over the field. I anticipate Nabers leading all rookie wide receivers in targets this year considering what his competition is. Unfortunately, he does not have the same caliber of quarterback that Harrison Jr has.
Nabers graded out similarly to two receivers in the model: Justin Jefferson and Chris Olave. We all want a Jefferson-type impact from Nabers, but he may be close to Olave in his first year or so.
1.03 - Caleb Williams, QB, CHI (Tier 1: Superstars, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 7.59)
I genuinely cannot think of a rookie quarterback I'm more confident in succeeding than Caleb Williams. He might be the most promising quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck, and he's joining what might be a Top-3 supporting cast in the NFL.
1.04 - Rome Odunze, WR, CHI (Tier 2: Star That You Might Have to Wait On, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 7.25)
It feels right to have Rome Odunze and Williams ranked back-to-back in my rankings, but that isn’t the reason for it. Odunze is a very good wide receiver prospect in his own right and he's landed on a team where he's expected to slide into the WR1 slot in a years’ time.
Odunze is the 12th-ranked overall prospect in my predictive draft model out of 142 prospects. He graded out similarly to AJ Brown and Jerry Jeudy.
1.05 – Brock Bowers, TE, LV (Tier 2: Star That You Might Have to Wait On, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 7.48)
Bowers is a prospect that might scare many away given the recent volatility and late breakouts of the position. I’m here to say – he’s better than you think. In my predictive draft model for Tight End prospects, he’s the best-graded tight-end prospect dating back 5 years (including ahead of Kyle Pitts).
Bowers put up numbers that were impressive for a receiver including a YPRR of over 2.60, top 5 in touchdowns amongst receivers drafted, and top 10 in receiving yards amongst receivers drafted.
1.06 - Ladd McConkey, WR, LAC (Tier 3: Potential Studs, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 6.83)
Similar to Bowers, McConkey's potential as a prospect is better than his current ranking among Dynasty experts, boasting one of the highest floors among all prospects. Pair that with landing on a team in desperate need of filling holes left by Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, I’m confident McConkey will perform early on.
McConkey also graded out really well in my predictive draft model, grading most similarly to Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua. McConkey caught over 75% of his career targets in college and had an impressive Career YPRR of 2.54.
1.07 – Jayden Daniels, QB, WAS (Tier 3: Potential Studs, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 6.91).
I likely have Jayden Daniels ranked lower than the consensus, which might surprise many. Let me try my best to justify this ranking. Daniels is likely ranked highly for two reasons: Being drafted 2nd overall and having elite rushing ability. Does being drafted 2nd overall have a high success rate for quarterbacks? Not necessarily, despite what Stroud accomplished last year. Is rushing broken for quarterbacks in fantasy? Yes. But maybe not to the extent many believe.
As a rusher, Daniels is much closer to Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson than he is to Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen, both of whom get a significant amount of their fantasy points from rushing touchdowns. Allen scored 8+ rushing touchdowns in 4 of his 6 seasons. Hurts accomplished that in 3 of his 4 seasons. Justin Fields scored 8+ rushing touchdowns in 1 of his 3 seasons (and seems unlikely to do so this year). Lamar Jackson has never scored 8+ rushing touchdowns in a season. Kyler Murray has done it once in 5 seasons.
Dating back 10 years, only 8 quarterbacks finished as a QB1 with 600+ rushing yards (something that can be expected if Daniels plays a full season). The quarterbacks are: Lamar Jackson (3x), Josh Allen (2x), Jalen Hurts (2x), Cam Newton (2x), Kyler Murray (1x), Justin Fields (1x), Russell Wilson (1x), and Daniel Jones (1x).
This is where personal evaluation comes into play: Do you believe Daniels has the potential to evolve as a passer comparable to Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, or Russell Wilson? Similarly, does he possess the capability to score rushing touchdowns similar to Allen, Hurts, or Cam Newton? If your answer is yes then he's deserving of his ranking.
We can argue Justin Fields reached Lamar's level as a rusher, but never produced enough as a passer, and he's now projected to back up Russell Wilson on a different team. Is it more likely Daniels mirrors Fields' career or Lamar's? While Daniels is an elite rushing threat, I don't believe he has the upside of scoring rushing touchdowns like Allen, Hurts, or even Anthony Richardson (who scored 4 rushing touchdowns in 4 games). Without even factoring in injury potential, what Daniels can offer as a rushing threat might not be as high as many believe. While we can expect a high floor for rushing, we can’t expect the same for scoring from Daniels.
Daniels' high ranking appears to rely more on speculation about his potential rather than an assessment of the likelihood of him reaching it. And if we want to factor in risk in the rankings, Daniels may not be deserving of being ranked in the Top 5 of Rookie Drafts. That said, I still believe Daniels is the clear QB2 in Dynasty Rookie Drafts because of his rushing ability. It still offers an extremely high floor for quarterbacks in fantasy and unless Daniels completely bombs as a passer, it’s hard not to see him as a consistent fantasy quarterback.
1.08 – Jonathan Brooks, RB, CAR (Tier 3: Potential Studs, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 7.23)
We’ll keep this one short. The beauty of RB dynasty rankings is a lot of the time it does, in fact, simply come down to draft capital. It’s a bonus when the player is also good.
Brooks is a good running back prospect, has Round two draft capital, and landed on a run-heavy team with a Head Coach that can get a lot out of their RBs. I had Brooks graded out as the 2nd best prospect behind Trey Benson.
1.09 – Trey Benson, RB, AZ (Tier 3: Potential Studs, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 7.22)
The same sentiment that applied to Brooks can also be applied to Benson. While I had Benson graded out as the better prospect, they were close enough that I gave Brooks the nod for the Round 2 draft capital. However, I do believe Benson landed on a better offense and, beyond this year, will be in line for a major workload going forward.
1.10 – Xavier Worthy, WR, KC (Tier 2: Star That You Might Have to Wait On, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 6.16)
I had Worthy ranked as a Top-10 WR prospect in this year’s draft. The main reasons being: he was productive, had elite speed (along with an overall very athletic profile), elite breakout age of 18.4 (97th percentile), and had a respectable YPRR of 2.21.
Bonus: Worthy had an avoided tackle rate of 16%. For reference, this was better than receivers like Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, Devontez Walker, Marvin Harrison Jr, Adonai Mitchell, Ricky Pearsall, Roman Wilson, and Jermaine Burton.
Worthy’s overall analytical profile does leave a lot to be desired and I’m of the opinion that he will be a good wide receivers, but I don’t think he will ever be perennial WR1. I expect WR2/High WR3 seasons out of Worthy. It’s up to others to decide if this is worth a 1st round pick in rookie drafts.
1.11 – Drake Maye, QB, NE (Tier 2: Star That You Might Have to Wait On, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 6.69)
Something that I didn’t really touch on previously with Caleb or Jayden – I believe, in general, quarterbacks are a bit overrated/over-ranked in SF leagues. I believe you want either two good starters or one elite quarterback and a mix of streamers for your quarterback. In dynasty rookie drafts, quarterback are usually rated significantly higher than they should (see: Bryce Young being regularly taken ahead of Bijan, JSN, Gibbs, etc. last year).
With all of that said, it's a bit ironic that I've included 4 quarterbacks in my Top 12 rankings. This would make for the highest number of quarterbacks ranked in the Top 12 that I've ever had. While I do have a favorable view on all 4 quarterbacks, I attribute their rankings more to the concerns I have about the prospects ranked below them. As far as Maye – I think he’s a really good quarterback prospect. Unfortunately, he didn’t land on an offense like Caleb and doesn’t offer the rushing ability like Daniels.
1.12 – JJ McCarthy, QB, MIN (Tier 2: Star That You Might Have to Wait On, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 6.35)
While I don’t see McCarthy as the same prospect as Maye, he did land in a phenomenal spot. There is a legitimate debate over which offense has better weapons between the Bears and Vikings. However, once Hockenson returns fully healthy, I would give the edge to the Vikings.
2.01 – Troy Franklin, WR, DEN (Tier 4, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 6.69)
Tory Franklin was ranked as the 4th highest-graded wide receiver prospect in this year’s class. If he went in the first two rounds, I’d likely have him as the WR4 ahead of McConkey. Unfortunately, Franklin’s drop was a lot worse than anticipated.
Because of the drop, I did drop him a few spots in rookie rankings. However, despite his Round four draft capital, I still believe Franklin will become a productive wide receiver in the NFL. The difference in grades between Franklin and some of the Round one and Round two receivers is enough for me to still rank him ahead of them in rookie rankings. While draft capital matters, it might not matter to the extent many believe. I mean, we should all be aware of the many wide receiver busts in Rounds 1-3 over the year.
To expand on this – Wide Receivers have the highest bust rate of any position in the first round. According to The Athletic, 63% of first-round WRs bust/disappoint. All I’m doing is trying to identify those who are likely to disappoint and those who I believe will exceed their drat position. Franklin, for me, is one of those prospects I believe will exceed his draft position.
2.02 – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, JAX (Tier 4, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 615)
As I mentioned, almost 2/3 of first-round receivers disappoint relative to draft position. There were 7 receivers taken in the first round this year. Meaning, historically, 4 or 5 first-round receivers this year will disappoint/bust. Brian Thomas Jr., in my opinion, is one of the more likely prospects to disappoint for fantasy.
What are some of the concerns I have for Brian Thomas Jr.? He falls under many historically significant thresholds for receiver success including: YPRR (sub-2.0), YPRR vs Zone (sub-2.00, PFF Grade vs Zone (sub-65.00), and First Down Per Route Run rate (6th worst in the class). On top of all that, Brian Thomas Jr. also has a relatively high drop rate. However, personally, I don’t really factor in drop rates for receivers because drops don’t usually prevent receivers from getting opportunities.
Despite all that, I still have Brian Thomas Jr. ahead of many other Round 1 & 2 prospects that I have even more significant concerns over. I also had Brian Thomas Jr. as a Top-9 wide receiver prospect in this year’s class and he landed on a team that well provide plenty of opportunities for him to succeed. Even if Brian Thomas Jr. does succeed and become a good wide receiver, I don’t believe he’s the kind to demand high volume either. Ironically, I comp him to his new teammate Gabe Davis, but Brian Thomas Jr. has better YAC ability and intermediate route running.
2.03 – Devontez Walker, WR, BAL (Tier 4, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 6.31)
Similar to Franklin, Walker is a prospect I had graded out very high relative to his draft capital. He also landed on the perfect team to utilize his skill set. Walker is explosive, athletic, and was a phenomenal deep threat in college. Very similar profile to Brian Thomas Jr., but I believe Walker performed better with his given opportunities.
Walker has a YPRR vs Zone over 3.00, a very promising mark. According to my predictive draft model, 52% of WRs with a YPRR vs Zone over 3.00 go on to become good receivers (PFR Avg. Value of 6+, Fantasy PPG of 9+). Walker is also 1 of 3 wide receivers drafted in Round 3 or lower, has a YPRR vs Zone of 3.00+, and has a Prospect Score of 6+ in my model. The other two are Puka Nacua and Tyler Johnson.
2.04 – Ricky Pearsall, WR, SF (Tier 4, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 5.61)
Pearsall is another example of a Round 1 wide receiver that I’m likely lower on than most. A lot of the notes for Brian Thomas Jr. can be applied to Pearsall: Elite athleticism, great deep threat, drafted in round 1 to a good spot (imo). Similarly, Pearsall also ranks below average in many important metrics like YPRR, YPRR vs Zone, First Downs Per Route Run, and Touchdowns Per Route Run. Pearsall is also an older prospect with a late breakout age.
All of that said, I do believe that if Pearsall becomes a good NFL WR, he landed on the perfect team to achieve that potential. While his advanced metrics are mediocre, he possesses elite tools.
2.05 – Jermaine Burton, WR, CIN (Tier 5, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 6.00)
Talent, Draft Capital, Landing Spot – how do you weigh them? For me, Burton checks two of those boxes: Talent and a good landing spot. The Round three draft capital, attitude concerns, and lack of high volume opportunities in college might scare a lot of dynasty players away though.
When it comes to advanced metrics, Burton checks a lot of boxes, and is why I’m high on him. Burton caught 67% of his career targets despite an insanely high ADOT (20.2 ADOT in 2023). On top of that, he has one of the best drop rates we’ve seen from a prospect with only 4 drops on 197 career targets, including 0 in 2023.
Burton ranks in the 76th percentile of my draft model. If I’m going for a low-volume, but talented deep threat, I would much prefer Burton at his value than any of the similar-style prospects drafted ahead of him.
2.06 – Blake Corum, RB, CIN (Tier 5, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 6.45)
Will keep this one short. Corum is a good running back with good draft capital that landed on a good team with a Head Coach that excels in getting the most out of his running backs. The issue is he’s likely a backup for the foreseeable future.
If Corum does get the opportunity to be the starter for the Rams, I’m confident he’s going to produce at a high level and it’s worth taking a shot on Corum in the 2nd for that chance.
2.07 – Bo Nix, QB, DEN (Tier 5.5, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 5.90)
For the most part, this is around the spot that I would value most mid-1st quarterbacks for the chance of getting a good starter. While Nix is an older prospect, he had an outstanding 2023 season and landed on a team with a Head Coach that has a track record of high-caliber quarterbacks play.
The main difference in Nix ranking ahead of Penix is he will likely get the opportunity to start from Day one while we have to wait (probably) two years for Penix.
2.08 – Michael Penix Jr., QB, ATL (Tier 5.5, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 6.00)
Similar to Nix, Penix is an older prospect who had an outstanding 2023 season. While he doesn’t have the Head Coach with the same track record for quarterbacks play, he landed on an offense with some of the best weapons in the NFL.
Unfortunately, Penix likely won’t get the opportunity to be the starter until at least 2026. By then, who knows what the team looks like.
2.09 – Ja’Lynn Polk., WR, NE (Tier 6, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 5.23)
The final tier of these rankings are highly-drafted receivers with major red flags that I simply ranked based on their Prospect Grade from my predictive draft model. Legette, Coleman, and Polk were all drafted within 5 spots of each other. Mitchell drafted just 15 spots later.
Polk is an above-average athlete that has the versatility to play out wide and in the slot. He ranked Top 10 in the class in contested catch rate (51%). Like the other prospects in this tier, Polk ranks concerningly low in many important advanced metrics. Polk ranks bottom-10 in First Down Per Route Run (4th worst), YPRR (9th worst), YPRR vs Man and Zone (8th worst in both), PFF Grade vs Zone (7th worst), and PFF Grade vs Man (3rd worst).
2.10 – Keon Coleman, WR, BUF (Tier 6, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 5.11)
While Coleman also has a lot of red flags in his analytical profile, he doesn’t have the elite athleticism to make up for it. Luckily, he did land on a team with high passing volume and vacated targets, so he should get the opportunity to prove himself. Coleman ranks bottom-7 in YPRR, YPRR vs Zone, First Down Per Route Run, and PFF Grade.
2.11 – Adonai Mitchell, WR, IND (Tier 6, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 5.10)
Unlike Coleman, Mitchell does have the elite athleticism to hopefully make up for his major red flags. Unfortunately, Mitchell’s red flags might be more concerning than Coleman’s. Mitchell might be the most receiver that has entered the NFL in a long time. Dating back to 2010. Mitchell has the 2nd-highest RAS (9.99), only behind Joe Webb. Webb transitioned to quarterbacks in the NFL, so you can argue he's the most athletic receiver that has entered the draft since 2010.
With that said, Mitchell essentially ranked at the very bottom in most advanced metrics. YPRR (32nd), YPRR vs Zone (32nd), First Down Per Route Run (24th), PFF Grade (30th). He also ranked below average in avoided tackle rate, catch %, and career QBR (which some might chalk up to playing with Ewers). Beyond just the analytic metrics, Mitchell also has some of the lowest production of any (potential) top-2 round prospect.
Amongst all receiver drafted in the 1st or 2nd round dating back to 2019, Mitchell would have the 4th worst production profile. The receiver's below him were: Jonathan Mingo, Kadarius Toney, and Mecole Hardman. It’s not hyperbolic to say that Mitchell would be the biggest analytical outlier we’ve ever seen if he goes on to become a good NFL WR. Not saying he can’t, and it might be worth taking a shot on him in the 2nd, but be aware of his red flags.
2.12 – Xavier Legette, WR, CAR (Tier 6, Fantasy Prospect Grade: 4.60)
Refer to all the same red flags under Mitchell and apply them to Legette. Except, he was even worse. Prior to 2023, Legette played in 41 games and ran almost 600 routes in 4 years with only 423 receiving yards (~0.71 YPRR) and 5 touchdowns to show for it.
In Legette’s favor, he had a better single season than any of the other wide receiver’s in this year. In his first full year as a starter, Legette put up some impressive numbers with 1,255 receiving yards on 71 receptions and 7 touchdowns with an impressive 17.7 yards/rec. He also had a YPRR over 3.00 in 2023.
Similar to the other prospects, Legette would be the biggest outlier we’ve seen in terms of advanced metrics. That said, it does somehow feel like he has the best odds of reaching his potential given what we saw from him in 2023.
