Corbin Carroll entered the 2024 MLB season as a certified stud, and many spent their first-round fantasy draft pick on the D-Backs' outfielder. Carroll was riding high on the momentum of a stellar rookie campaign that earned him the National League Rookie of the Year title and placed him fifth in MVP voting. His Average Draft Position (ADP) across several platforms and league types suggested he commanded first-round stock. However, after a month of the 2024 season, Carroll has not lived up to the expectations of a first-round fantasy pick.
This article dives into the specifics of Carroll’s recent struggles, examining the underlying statistics, the technical factors at play, and the broader implications for both Carroll and your fantasy team.
Statistical Overview of Carroll's Struggles
In the early phases of the 2024 season, Carroll's performance has seen a dramatic dip. As of the end of April, his batting line stands at a troubling .189/.295/.236, a shadow of the .285/.362/.506 he posted last year.
During this fall-off, Carroll is posting a 60 wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created), indicating that his runs created are 40% below the league average. For context, Carroll finished the 2023 season with a 133 wRC+, nearly 70 points higher than what he's currently producing.
The lack of extra-base hits is particularly concerning, with only one home run and a handful of doubles to his name so far. As a result, his slugging percentage has plummeted, signaling a potential decrease in power at the plate.
Additionally, Carroll’s average exit velocity has seen a marked decrease from the previous season, moving from 92 MPH down to 84 MPH. This reduction also carries over to the average exit velocity on fly balls, which has dropped from 86 MPH to an alarming 80 MPH, placing him in the lower 5th percentile among major league hitters. This stark decrease suggests that even when he does get under the ball, the contact isn't solid enough to result in the extra-base hits that we often witnessed in his rookie campaign.
Implications for the Diamondbacks
Carroll’s underperformance has led to a significant shift in the Diamondbacks’ batting order. Initially a top-of-the-lineup hitter due to his speed and hitting prowess, Carroll has been moved down to the seventh or eighth spot. This demotion may indicate an attempt to reduce pressure on him while trying to maximize production from the lineup. Consequently, this shift also reduces the number of plate appearances he gets, potentially limiting his opportunities to contribute significantly to your fantasy team.
Future Outlook
Carroll's robust minor league track record and his explosive rookie season make me believe that his talent remains intact, despite recent struggles. One silver lining is that he has improved his plate discipline this season. Carroll seems to be seeing the ball better, increasing his walk rate and reducing his strikeouts.
Moreover, Carroll's value as a base stealer remains one of his standout attributes, even amid his current batting struggles. Despite his low hitting statistics early in the 2024 season, Carroll has successfully stolen eight bases. His ability to swipe bases adds a significant dimension to his game, allowing him to remain a valuable fantasy asset. Although, let’s be objective—elite base stealing coupled with his dismal offensive statistics does not support his preseason ADP.
With that said, we know that Carroll is a willing and skilled base stealer, having swiped 54 bags last season. If he can increase his on-base percentage, even marginally, it would provide him with more opportunities to steal bases.
My stance is that the foundation for a turnaround is present. There’s a reasonable expectation that Carroll can recalibrate his swing and timing to start driving the ball effectively once again. After all, it’s only May. I hope we can look back at Carroll's early season production and laugh at ourselves for ever being worried.
In the worst case scenario, Carroll becomes someone who can pad your stolen base category, while putting up a league average slash line. That reality would be disappointing considering you probably drafted him in the first round, but by no means do I believe Carroll should be unrostered.
With the right adjustments and support, Corbin Carroll has the potential to overcome this slump and reposition himself as the cornerstone of the D-Backs' franchise and as a first-round fantasy draft pick. Here’s hoping for a productive and injury-free May.
