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The title of ‘“biggest draft winner’” often lands on the franchise most active in acquiring the media’s favorite prospects at a value. For example, in drafting Toledo’s Quiyon Mitchell and Iowa’s Cooper DeJean at excellent values respectfully, GM Howie Roseman received rightful praise as the draft’s biggest winner.
In this article, however, I will present the case for Caleb Williams to hold this title. Amidst a pungent formula of aggressive trading, NIL opportunities, and an all-in coach and general manager fighting for their jobs, Caleb Williams’ marriage with the Bears comes at the most unique and opportune of times.
Are We Serious, Chicago?
Caleb Williams’ status as a Chicago Bear has been all but a sure thing for what feels like an eternity now, but it wasn’t always like this. Only two months ago, media outlets reported on rumors suggesting Caleb Williams would refuse to play for the Chicago Bears to the extent that he and Ryan Poles addressed it in interviews.
Is there really a precedent for the top quarterback prospect to have that much say on where he would end up? And was there a real chance Williams would refuse to play in Chicago? It’s rare nowadays to see a prospect attempt an "Eli" or "Elway," referring to the tandem’s declaration to sit out their rookie season should they be drafted by a specific undesirable franchise.
To be fair, there’s virtually zero evidence the Bears know how to manage and nurture a young quarterback in an ascending offense. Plus, the introduction of NIL meant there was a real threat Williams could return to college for one more year. Traditionally, you’d call a guy foolish for passing on guaranteed life-changing money that comes with an NFL contract, but in 2024, young athletes can make even more and, importantly, immediate money from a NIL deal before they go pro.
Addressing the rumors, Williams said, “If I get drafted by the Bears, I’ll be excited,” per ESPN’s Pete Thamel. “If they trade the pick, and I get drafted by someone else, I’m just as excited. Speaking about Chicago, they have a talented team, a talented offense and defense. For anyone to be in that situation, I think they’d be excited”.
To me, this was Williams saying to Ryan Poles and the Bears, ‘If you’re serious about this marriage, show me you have a plan for us.’
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that after Williams’ comments on February 28th, the Bears started exhibiting an uncharacteristic level of aggression in the market. Two weeks later, the team traded away Justin Fields, traded for Keenan Allen, and signed depth offensive pieces in D’Andre Swift and Gerald Everett on day one of free agency. After taking Caleb Williams first overall, the team somewhat surprisingly added another potential star in Rome Odunze with the 9th pick. It’s rare and refreshing to see the holder of the top pick prepare so thoroughly for their new quarterback. So, just how good can this Bears offense be in 2024?
Building a New Identity
In Matt Iberflus’s two seasons as the Head Coach, the Bears finished top two in both carries and team rushing yards. Given their moves this offseason, there’s no reason why the Bears can’t maintain their identity as a top-three rushing attack in 2024. The unit added a new flavor in Swift, which is projected to fill the pass-catching role above Roschon Jonson, the thick to Swift’s lean. Meanwhile, Khalil Herbert has a 4.9-lifetime YPC and never seems to go away as a consistent 12-15 carry bowling ball. While the dream is for the offense to fly through the air, a fierce three-headed running attack means less pressure on Williams from the get-go.
Turning our attention to the wide receiver room, the Bears boast arguably the league’s best. DJ Moore is coming off a baller season, and recent acquisition Keenan Allen is old but coming off a year where he led the league in targets (11.5) and catches (8.3) per game. With little depth behind the two going into the draft, the team used their 9th pick to select Rome Odunze. Leading the nation in yards and finishing 3rd in TDs last year, the 6’ 3 220 pound playmaker has magnets for hands.
Like every tight-end not named Sam Laporta, Cole Kmet took some time to acclimate, but now, in year five, he’s perfected his craft. Finishing 7th in receptions in 2023, Kmet’s 6’6, 260 lb frame causes defenders nightmares over the middle of the field and as a blocker. Free agent addition Gerald Everett is no slouch.
Iberflus has been trying to fix the offensive line since he got there in 2021, but injuries have prevented any of his solutions from standing a chance. If former high selections Darnell Wright and Tevin Jenkins, free agent signing right tackle Nate Davis, and trade-pickup center Ryan Bates can all stay healthy, the unit should be at least par next season.
When the dust settles, Caleb Williams might have the best surrounding cast a rookie quarterback has ever had. Maybe even the best offense the Bears have ever had? We’re talking about a franchise whose highest-scoring offense of all time was quarterbacked by Jay Cutler and Josh McCown and finished second in scoring in 2013. The outfit featured a standout offensive quartet of running back Matt Forte and pass catchers Alshon Jeffrey, Brandon Marshall, and Martellus Bennett. Keep in mind that they didn’t even make the playoffs this season.
In my eyes, the 2024 offensive cast easily has the potential to outproduce its 2013 franchise best counterpart. Clearly, Iberflus, Poles, and Bears see an opening to compete ASAP in the NFC North with Caleb Williams, and their jobs may depend on it…
A Deep Division
If the Bears are to make it to the playoffs, they’re going to have to claw their way out of the fierce NFC North, which suddenly looks as stacked as the 2023 AFC East. Is it too early for the Bears to compete for the division?
The Packers are so youthful on both sides of the ball (and only growing), so expect them to challenge for the division title. Meanwhile, the Vikings bravely moved on from Kirk Cousins this offseason, adding two intriguing quarterbacks who they think give them a chance at winning ten games and the division. Finally, the Lions are everyone’s favorite team to root for, and they almost went to the Super Bowl last season.
Pro Football Network ranked defenses going into the 2024 season and had all four NFC North teams between 13-19. When it’s all said and done, I believe there’s no reason a young and hungry Bears can’t compete for the division or at least a playoff spot. Regardless of what I think, the team’s moves this offseason suggest an internal expectation to make the dance.
Historical Precedent
It’s hard to comprehend how historically rare it is for a team picking first overall to be considered a playoff contender, especially when that team is taking a quarterback. Let’s quickly compare Caleb Williams’s situation to recent quarterbacks taken at 1:
- Joe Burrow went 2-7-1 in 10 starts, PFF ranked the 2020 Bengals roster 26th going into the season, and they performed as such
- Trevor Lawrence improved the Jags from 1 win to 4 in his rookie season, which was largely considered a disappointment considering the hype surrounding him
Trust me, historically, it only gets worse. The only team EVER to make the playoffs was the 2008 Miami Dolphins, who had the greatest turnaround in football history. Coming off a 1-15 season where their only win came in OT, the Dolphins fired everyone, drafted OT Jake Long 1st overall, and deployed a Wild-Cat offense en route to a Wild Card appearance.
How Did The Bears Get the #1 Pick Again?
Granted, the Bears are a unique case as holders of the 1st overall pick; they acquired the pick in a trade last offseason, which saw them give up their own 1st overall pick in the 2023 draft. Historically, there have been 17 trades involving the number 1 overall pick; to the best of my knowledge, the Bears are the only team EVER to have selected first overall after acquiring the pick over a year prior via trade. It’s hard to comprehend, but the Bears having the top pick is mega-odd.
If Bryce Young hadn’t sucked so badly last year, the Panther's first-round pick owed to the Bears could have easily fallen outside the top 5, likely resulting in Fields keeping his job. Instead, a year later, they seem to have pulled off arguably one of the greatest trade heists of all time.
- Bears get WR DJ Moore, OT Darnell Wright, CB Tyrique Stevenson (traded up to No. 56 pick), QB Caleb Williams, and a 2025 second-round pick
- Panthers get QB Bryce Young
Even if Young turns it around in year two, the sheer quantity of assets acquired by the Bears represents a real coup. Ryan Poles deserves his flowers here and should offer a blueprint for how to flip pick 1 when you don’t love the top quarterback.
The Undisputed Draft Winner
When all the facts are laid out, the Caleb Williams situation is certainly intriguing. Have we ever seen a franchise bend over backward more in preparation for a college player? Has a rookie quarterback ever had a better offensive supporting cast? Has the first overall pick ever been in a better situation to succeed? With all this being said, Caleb Williams walks away from the draft, the undisputed winner.
