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Last year, the Houston Texans shocked most people by making a 180, going from a dead-in-the-water offense in 2022 to a top-half offense in yards and points in 2023. This type of turnaround isn’t common, but it got me thinking. What teams are the most likely to pull this turnaround off next year and have players that will be in for big years and obtained at a discount?

To get our candidates, I looked at the ten worst offenses in yards/game and then the ten worst offenses in points/game for 2023. I excluded offenses that had their quarterbacks out for most, if not the entire year as the New York Giants, New York Jets, and Arizona Cardinals should all have much more consistent offenses with their starting quarterbacks hopefully back for a whole season. So let’s take a look at five teams potentially prime to make some big rebounds next year!

Atlanta Falcons

Let’s kick things off with the most common prediction: the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons actually finished with a decent yards/game, finishing 17th in the league for the season. However, they stalled too many times near the end zone with the 30th-worst red zone touchdown percentage and finished 26th in points/game. For a team with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, and a strong offensive line, that’s unacceptable.

Enter Kirk Cousins, who led the Minnesota Vikings to be a top-ten offense in yards/game, red zone scoring percentage, and points/game, and we are talking about what should be a much more competent offense. Cousins has shown the ability to connect with multiple playmakers throughout his career and will have plenty of opportunities moving to a McVay-like offense in Atlanta. Honestly, it would be more shocking to not see the Falcons in the top half of offenses this coming season, so they are the easiest candidate to envision. The biggest problem with this, though, is that it will be hard to get any of the players at a discount, with this being the general consensus.

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Tennessee Titans

Now things will get interesting. The Tennessee Titans are my second candidate since I’ve loved most of their offseason moves so far. I’m a big fan of the Brian Callahan hiring and love that they paired him with his dad, Bill Callahan, who is an offensive guru. I think Dennard Wilson is going to be a great defensive coordinator, and I’m a big fan of their moves to bring in Calvin Ridley, L’Jarius Sneed, Chidobe Awuzie, and Tyler Boyd. There are definitely a few moves I wouldn’t personally do with some signings and draft picks, but it was a great offseason, and Titans fans should be excited.

Focusing on the offensive and fantasy impact these moves made, the offensive line was a major cause of a lot of the Tennessee Titans’ problems last year as they weren’t able to protect the quarterback and also couldn’t create the holes they could in the past. Bill Callahan should help with these issues, as he seems to bring the most out of every offensive line unit, regardless of where he is. The offensive line should also take a natural step forward with Dillon Radunz another year removed from his ACL injury, Peter Skoronski having another year of experience, bringing in free agent Lloyd Cushenberry III, and drafting JC Latham 7th overall. 

The Titans also bolstered their receiver room to the point where Treylon Burks was supposed to be their second-best receiver last year and may barely see the field this year if they primarily play DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, and potentially Tyler Boyd. Their running back room definitely took a hit losing Derrick Henry, but bringing in Tony Pollard will give them a nice one-two punch with Tyjae Spears. Tight end is still a bit of a question mark, but there are a number of believers in Chigoziem Okonkwo, so hopefully, he can come through this year.

Will Levis had a rough year last year due to a poor offensive line and minimal weapons to work with. This year, the Tennessee Titans’ front office held up their side of the bargain by bringing in offensive line, receiver, and coaching reinforcement. If Levis takes a big second-year leap, the Titans could catch a lot of teams by surprise, and Levis could be one of the better values at quarterback this year.

Washington Commanders

This one probably isn’t too surprising, but the Washington Commanders were a mess last year, finishing 24th in yards/game and 25th in points/game. With the weapons the Commanders had last year and their high passing rate, I actually didn’t expect them to be eligible candidates for this article. Their problems were a combination of poor offensive play calling, poor offensive line play, and Sam Howell holding the ball too long and not getting it to his playmakers. With additions to the offensive line, moving on from Eric Bieniemy, and upgrading from Howell to Jayden Daniels, there is a lot of optimism for the team.

Daniels won’t be throwing to Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. this year, but he will have two very strong receivers, Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson (I’m still a believer). The Commanders also brought in Luke McCaffrey, Ben Sinnott, Zach Ertz, and Austin Ekeler to give some much-needed life to the offense. They also still have Brian Robinson, who will be available to close games and pick up tough yards when needed. 

Now, Jayden Daniels could, of course, have struggles adjusting to the NFL, but he should be helped by his strong supporting cast. The offensive is improved but still needs to show it can mesh together to be a strong unit. The positive is that if the offensive line struggles again, Daniels will be able to make up for it with his legs.

This is likely another easy candidate for this article, with the Washington Commanders already having some good playmakers and now adding a top rookie quarterback. I think there will be a lot of mouths to feed but I could see this finally being the big breakout year for Jahan Dotson since he ran a lot of the same routes Nabers did who Daniels had a strong connection with. As long as the offensive line holds up, I could also see Daniels using his great deep ball accuracy to connect with McLaurin, which the offense has been missing these past few years. Overall, these offseason moves might actually get me excited to watch the Commanders’ offense again.

New England Patriots

This one follows the same logic as the Commanders as the New England Patriots hope that Drake Maye can breathe some life into their offense after a putrid finish at 30th in yards/game and tied for last in points/game last year. They had a heavy focus on offense in the draft by drafting receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker and offensive linemen Caedan Wallace and Layden Robinson to help support Maye. They still have Rhamondre Stevenson, Demario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, and Hunter Henry, who were some of their few productive offensive players. Though they weren’t flashy signings, free agents Antonio Gibson and Austin Hooper will provide some nice help to the offense. 

The New England Patriots may have moved on from Bill Belichick, but I think they will still maintain the identity of a run-first team with Alex Van Pelt joining the team from the Cleveland Browns. This will allow Drake Maye to adjust to the speed of the NFL while being able to rely on the run game. Maye also having rookie minicamp and training camp to establish chemistry with Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker could lead him to have an instant connection like CJ Stroud and Tank Dell had last year.

That being said, there is a high likelihood that Drake Maye will sit behind Jacoby Brissett for the first few weeks as he needs some time to develop. However, Brissett is familiar with Alex Van Pelt’s offense during his time in Cleveland and showed he is capable of running his offense. This will help the Patriots’ offense stay consistent in the early stages of the season and potentially really take off if Maye is ready this season.

This year, I think Rhamondre Stevenson will deliver on his high expectations from last year and will be a great value back for teams as the New England Patriots go run-heavy again but with a more productive offense. The receiver room will be interesting, but I think Demario Douglas will be the safest bet as Jacoby Brissett typically has a low average depth of target, which will align with Douglas’ routes and Drake Maye's previously showing that he can lean on a slot receiver when he played with Josh Downs at North Carolina. I think either Ja’Lynn Polk or Javon Baker will become the Patriots’ number one receiver this year and trusting draft capital suggests that it will be Polk. However, it will be worth monitoring Baker this offseason since he has a lot of traits that will help him become a top receiver for a team if he gets more consistent hands.

Carolina Panthers

The final candidate might be the hottest take, as the Carolina Panthers finished dead last in yards/game and tied for last in points/game last year. The Panthers were a hot mess last year with an offensive line that served as a revolving door for defenders, had no weapons outside of aging Adam Thielen for Bryce Young, and had a weak run game that saw them turn away from Miles Sanders, their big free agent signing last year. However, just like the Tennessee Titans, I love a lot of what they’ve done this offseason.

The hiring of Dave Canales was surprising since I think he is one of the best up-and-coming coaches, and I thought he would go into a situation that was better than what the Carolina Panthers showed last year. They also weren’t patient in providing help for Young by bringing in plenty of offensive line help via free agency with Robert Hunt, Damien Lewis, and Yosh Nijman, and hopefully should have a healthier Austin Corbett. They also went out and traded for route runner extraordinaire Diontae Johnson and drafted Xavier Legette, Jonathon Brooks, who I think was the clear top back for this class even with the ACL injury, and Ja’Tavion Sanders, who is much more dynamic than his athletic testing indicates. This turned their previous offensive core of Jonathan Mingo, Miles Sanders, and Tommy Tremble to now being likely back-ups for players with much better ability. 

It can’t be stated enough how much the Carolina Panthers could have compromised Bryce Young’s development if they didn’t make the moves they did. Dave Canales was able to develop Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield into the quarterbacks they are today, and I’m excited to see what he does with Bryce Young. With all the help he has around him now, I’m very hopeful he can shed the bust label a lot of people want to jump to give him.

This year, I think Bryce Young could be had at a huge discount as many people will avoid him at all costs after last year. I think Adam Thielen will be taken at fair value, but there could be a chance people forget how good Diontae Johnson is, and he could be taken at a discount. The run game will be a bit messy as they will likely take it slow with Jonathon Brooks. However, once he is back to 100%, he could be a pivotal part of a lineup during the playoff push.