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With the 2024 NFL Season still over three months away, this is the opportune time to stay ahead of the curve and capitalize on player values. Even in the off-season, player values fluctuate dramatically, which, in turn, creates prime opportunities for savvy managers to capitalize on assets. This goes for both undervalued and overvalued players. Here are the best AFC East players to buy low or sell high.
Buffalo Bills
Buy-Low Candidate: Khalil Shakir
Khalil Shakir is poised to become a breakout star in 2024 with everything needed to break out: Youth, opportunity, and trajectory (Shakir had several standout performances in the second half of 2023). Given that I have Keon Coleman as my sell-high candidate for the Bills, I'm even more convinced that Shakir is destined to be Josh Allen’s go-to guy next season.
Although Shakir played the majority of snaps from the slot last season, he has the ability and athleticism to shine on the outside, too. Shakir will likely split slot and Z-receiver duties with Curtis Samuel, who is also primarily a slot receiver. Shakir was second only to Diggs in Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) and even led the team in this metric in the second half of the year. Shakir is one of my favorite buy-lows in all of fantasy.
Sell-High Candidate: Keon Coleman
If you read any of my rookie breakdowns, you would know I am not the biggest Keon Coleman fan. Despite being taken high in the second round and going to a team with an elite QB and prime opportunity, I still have Coleman as the 11th-ranked rookie WR this year.
If you want an in-depth breakdown of my concerns with Coleman, you can read here. The bottom line is that I don't think Coleman can consistently create separation at the next level. His college performance was subpar, and he lacks the athleticism to compensate for these shortcomings.
Miami Dolphins
Buy-Low Candidate: Raheem Mostert
Raheem Mostert is now more than two years removed from any serious injury and, at 32, is coming off a career year. While Mostert was previously known for his explosive big-play potential in his early years, he's become one of the most consistent running backs in the league under Mike McDaniel.
If a running back is scoring in the red zone for the Dolphins, chances are it's most likely going to be Mostert. Despite everything that made him a league-winning running back last year and his situation staying mostly the same, Mostert is being criminally undervalued in dynasty leagues. Take this as your cue to buy low on Mostert and secure a valuable running back spot on your roster.
Sell-High Candidate: De’Von Achane
De’Von Achane is another "Sell-High" candidate who is closer to "sell high if someone values him significantly higher than you" than a must-sell at his current value. It feels like Achance has one of the highest range of outcomes of any player this year.
His 2023 game log shows that clearly: In 11 games played, Achane had five 20+ scoring games and five games scoring <10 points. This was all done on an extreme level of efficiency in which Achane never played more than 63% in a game and had 20+ opportunities in a game only once.
New England Patriots
Buy-Low Candidate: Javon Baker
If any team desperately needs an alpha receiver and a big-play threat, it's the Patriots. I believe Javon Baker can fulfill both roles. While Baker was the second receiver drafted by the Patriots, two rounds after Polk, it's not unprecedented for a later pick to outproduce a player drafted at the same position earlier. Baker separated himself as one of the best deep threats in the class, with 574 of his 1,139 receiving yards coming as deep yards, which marks 50% of his production coming on deep yards.
Baker also boasted one of the best Career Yards Per Route Run (2.53) and Yards Per Route Run vs. Zone (2.66) in the entire class, ranking in the top six for both metrics. While Polk might be the safer bet to produce this year, Baker has true WR1 potential. That's the kind of upside I believe is worth taking a chance on.
Sell-High Candidate: Drake Maye
This isn't a critique of Drake Maye. Instead, my intention is to highlight how often rookie QBs (and rookies in general) can be overvalued post-NFL Draft. I'm not suggesting that anyone who owns Maye should sell him immediately.
However, rookies generally have the most variable value and Maye's value could be much higher to someone else in your league. Trading Maye for a consistent, non-aging QB might be a wise move, considering how close he's valued to players like Dak, Tua, and Purdy.
New York Jets
Buy-Low Candidate: Mike Williams
The biggest concern with Mike Williams is, and always has been, his extensive injury history. When healthy, Williams is a consistent fantasy producer with high-ceiling potential. Dating back to 2021, in games where he's played 60%+ of snaps (28 games), Williams has averaged 12.9 half-ppr points per game.
Williams is entering the year as the Jets clear WR2 next to Garrett Wilson, and Rodgers is returning from an Achilles injury. There's no guarantee Williams can stay healthy, but when he is, he will produce. With him currently being the 77th-ranked WR, Williams has one of the highest ceilings of any buy-low candidate outside the top 150 ranked players.
Sell-High Candidate: Aaron Rodgers
It may seem odd to have Aaron Rodgers as a sell-high candidate, given his current ranking outside the Top 150 on KTC. However, when you look at the players he's ranked near or ahead of, it starts to make sense. There are several quarterbacks ranked behind Rodgers that I would prefer to have.
Rodgers' ceiling is likely as a week-to-week streaming option as a QB3 or QB4. If he's your QB2, your team probably has other issues to address. While he may not command a high trade value, you could trade him for one of the many valuable wide receivers or running backs currently valued near him that offer great flex capability.
