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Continuing my “Cleaning Up Messy Position Groups” series, we’ll be looking at the Buffalo Bills’ receiver core. Let me know how you think this position group will pan out and reach out to me at @backseatscout on Twitter/X or u/backseatscout on Reddit if there are any position groups (I will take any suggestions for receivers or running backs) you want to tackle next.
Also, this primarily looks at the players in 1QB, redraft, PPR, not best ball formats. If you want to check out my previous articles on the Houston Texans receivers and Green Bay Packers receivers, you can check them out with the links below:
Houston Texans’ Receivers: How to Handle the Houston Texans Receivers in 2024 Fantasy Football
Green Bay Packers Receivers: How to Handle the Green Bay Packers Receivers in 2024 Fantasy Football
The Buffalo Bills have been evolving quickly, changing their identity to a more run-heavy team in the second half of the year after transitioning to Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator. This offseason continued this evolution as they traded away Stefon Diggs, allowed Gabe Davis to walk in free agency, signed Curtis Samuel in free agency, and drafted Keon Coleman.
With 306 targets vacated from last year with all the departures, there will be a lot of opportunities for the returning and new players. As a fair warning, with the number of changes, this article may have more projection than any of the others but I want to try to focus my attention on how the offense played with Joe Brady as the basis of my expectations.
The Joe Brady Offense and Formations
Before getting into the receivers, I wanted to take a look at how the Buffalo Bills’ offense changed going from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady. For full disclosure, it was hard to find great weekly breakdowns of formations and play calls. So, for some stuff I had to either combine resources or pull out the old calculator and figure it out myself.
Since we will be discussing receivers, I think it’s best to start out by taking a look at how much the Bills may be using 11 personnel (three-wide receiver sets). This is where I ran into the first issue in trying to assess the change from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady, with difficulty finding weekly breakdowns of formations used.
However, I was able to find a great spreadsheet created by u/nt2533 on Reddit (shoutout to them, and here’s the line to it for reference: [OC] Offensive Personnel Breakdown by Team that showed the rate each team ran different personnel formations in the first seven weeks of the 2023 season.
In the spreadsheet, you can see that the Buffalo Bills had a very low rate of 11 personnel compared to the rest of the league at just 52.22% in the first seven weeks of the season. Also, the Bills used 12 personnel (two receivers and two tight ends) on 31.85% of their plays through week seven.
Despite the frequency of 11 personnel and high 12 personnel usage at the beginning of the season, the Bills finished the season using 11 personnel on 57% of offensive plays and only 20% for 12 personnel, suggesting a major shift in the second half of the year with Joe Brady. That shift caused the Bills to finish in the top 10 for usage of 11 personnel.
That 57% mark is likely to be expected going forward if we use Joe Brady’s past history as the offensive coordinator of the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers’ offense used 11 personnel on 57% of offensive plays in 2020 and was even higher in 2021 on 66% of plays. So, the change to Brady allowed a lot more snaps for the wide receivers, which we will see later on in Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Khalil Shakir’s section.
Pass/Run Rates
The next important thing to examine is how the pass and run rates changed with Joe Brady. This was also difficult to find in a weekly breakdown, so I manually calculated the pass rates for every game this past season. For consistency’s sake with the resources I compared it with, I included quarterback scrambles as a rush attempt for awareness. Here’s what I found:
Games with Ken Dorsey
Game 1: 41/63 = 65.1%
Game 2: 37/72 = 51.4%
Game 3: 32/65 = 49.2%
Game 4: 25/54 = 46.3%
Game 5: 40/54 = 74.1%
Game 6: 30/59 = 50.8%
Game 7: 41/65 = 63.1%
Game 8: 40/66 = 60.6%
Game 9: 38/54 = 70.4%
Week 10: 26/52 = 50%
Total: 350/604
Pass Rate with Ken Dorsey: 57.7%
Games with Joe Brady:
Game 11: 32/70 = 45.7%
Game 12: 51/91 = 56%
Game 13: 42/70 = 60%
*Game 14: 15/64 = 23.4%*
Game 15: 21/51 =41.2%
Game 16: 30/67 = 44.8%
Game 17: 38/74 =51%
Playoff Game 1: 30/64 = 46.9%
Playoff Game 2: 39/78 = 50%
Total: 298/629
Pass Rate with Joe Brady: 47.4%
So, there appears to be a pretty major shift from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady. However, I think we need to take the Brady sample with a grain of salt. I have game 14, aka the Dallas Cowboys game with stars around it due to it being such an outlier and nowhere close to the regular pass rate of any NFL game that isn’t a blowout. With this already being a small sample, it’s appropriate to remove that game, which would bring the passing rate to a more reasonable 50.1%.
The other thing to take into account is the number of plays run by each coordinator. With Ken Dorsey, the Buffalo Bills ran about 62 plays per game in 2023. Meanwhile, Joe Brady had the offense running about 72 plays per game, including the playoffs. So this can also help explain some of the numbers we’ll be looking at in the later sections.
My biggest takeaway is that there was much more fluctuation in passing rates on a weekly basis with Ken Dorsey than with Joe Brady. With Dorsey, the Buffalo Bills had 5 out of 10 games where they passed at least 60% of the players. Meanwhile, Brady only had a single game out of his nine that maxed out at 60%. So, there was definitely a more consistent trend in the run game, but I think it’s important to see what truly caused this change.
James Cook
Looking through James Cook’s stats kind of took me by surprise how he didn’t see as significant of a difference in terms of snap % as we might have expected with the shift to Joe Brady. Cook’s snap %, touch rates, target %, and route participation all essentially were the same with Ken Dorsey and Joe Brady.
One area we saw a change was the rush attempts, going from 12 rushes per game with Dorsey to 17 per game (though the Dallas Cowboys game and the increase in plays called per game had an impact on this). Also, where we did see a difference and where he could impact the receiving game was in Cook’s y/rr, and ADOT was improving with Brady.
With Ken Dorsey in 2023, James Cook only had a positive ADOT in three of his ten games but then had a positive ADOT in every single game under Joe Brady. Interestingly, Cook didn’t see a major increase in target/game, going from 2.7 targets/game with Dorsey to 3.9 targets/game with Brady.
Cook also actually saw a reduction in the number of snaps out of the slot. So, it was less about Cook having a higher snap % and more so a combination of more offensive snaps being called and getting the opportunity for higher valued opportunities in the passing game.
As a runner, the Buffalo Bills became more unpredictable with Joe Brady as they had more of a shift to a zone scheme. Under Ken Dorsey, the team only ran more zone plays in one game but had four games with more zone runs with Cook under Brady. So, the change in pace and switching up run tactics made it more difficult for defenses to stop the run while also playing to Cook’s strengths as a zone runner.
With James Cook showing that he is more capable as a runner and getting more downfield targets, he looks like a valuable asset that could take targets away from receivers. Cook can definitely take a step forward next year and take a larger slice of targets, but likely not earning a significantly larger target volume under Joe Brady this past year should give the receivers a sigh of relief.
Also, Cook struggled with drops and heavily struggled in pass protection, which could cut his opportunities if he doesn’t take a step forward in these areas next year. So, while Cook (and you can even include Ray Davis in this, too) will likely be part of the game plan for 2024, they likely won’t be taking a high portion of the vacated targets.
Joe Brady’s Impact on Josh Allen
We saw more snaps leading to more rushing attempts for James Cook but we also saw Joe Brady’s offense having more emphasis on Josh Allen using his legs. Allen had just 4.8 rushes per game in the games with Ken Dorsey this year and only had five or more rushes in four out of the ten games. However, we saw this nearly double to 9.2 rushes per game with Brady and never having less than five rushes in a game.
It was hard to find how many of these rushes were designed runs or scrambles, but I think we can be conservative and assume that at least 5 of those rushes were on scrambles. With that logic, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills offense theoretically had five pass attempts that Allen scrambled for instead of throwing to a receiver.
Now, if Allen were to convert those scrambles into pass attempts (which could happen this year with more time to adjust and learn Joe Brady’s offense), the pass rate would rise to 54.5% if we include the Dallas Cowboys game and 58% if we exclude it. So, while the team’s rush attempts went up, it was more due to Allen rushing the ball more than the Bills committing more to the ground game with running backs.
The other thing I found when looking into Josh Allen’s stats from last year was the impact Joe Brady had on Allen’s ADOT. Allen saw a pretty significant change, going from 53.9% of his passes being behind the line of scrimmage in 2022 to 61.1% of his passes being behind this mark in 2023. Also, his season average ADOT dropped from 10.2 to 8.6 this year. It was also hard to confirm how big of a shift there was from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady, but the season difference and the eye test make me confident that a lot of this had to do with Brady’s direction.
Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox
I also don’t think we can talk about the receivers without acknowledging the tight-end duo of Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Kincaid got overshadowed by Sam LaPorta’s rookie season but had a great rookie season as a tight end. Kincaid broke the Buffalo Bills’ tight end rookie reception record and finished with the fourth most receptions by a rookie tight end in NFL history. Kincaid was worked into the offense slowly at the beginning of the year as he mostly ran short patterns but developed into a complete route runner by the end of the season and was great at deeper routes.
Now, a lot of the concern for Dalton Kincaid is the presence of Dawson Knox. As I mentioned earlier, the Buffalo Bills trended towards using 11 personnel more with Joe Brady, which limited the number of times both Kincaid and Knox were out on the field. However, the Bills quickly realized what Kincaid offered over Knox, with Knox only playing more snaps than Kincaid in a single game when Knox returned to injury. Also, that game was the Dallas Cowboys game, so again, it’s likely not a fair assessment of anything.
Now, that sounds great, but Dalton Kincaid got more than 55% of snaps in only two games when Dawson Knox returned from injury, with one of those games being the first game Knox returned. So, that dampers a bit of hope. However, when Kincaid was out there, he became a go-to target for Josh Allen with a target percentage of 13% (tied for fourth highest among tight ends that played at least 500 snaps last year) and only behind Stefon Diggs with a target percentage of 17%.
With the expectation that Dalton Kincaid continues to improve going into his second year and the chemistry he’s shown with Josh Allen, I think Kincaid is trending towards a very good year next year. I think that Kincaid will continue to separate himself from Knox, and Knox will likely become more of an ancillary piece as the season goes on. Due to this, I had to include Kincaid, as I think he will lead the Buffalo Bills in targets next year. Now, what type of target number could we be looking at if that’s the case?
Looking back at the past 20 years to find the ceiling for the number of targets for a tight end, Zach Ertz and Tony Gonzalez finished with the most targets for a tight end in a single season, with 156 targets in 2018 and 2007, respectively. Dalton Kincaid finished last season with 91 targets in 16 games. Now, I don’t think Kincaid will be getting 156 targets, so we want to ensure we aren’t going above that, and I think it would be reasonable to split the middle as a higher-end projection, which brings us to 124 targets.
I think this is an appropriate expectation as this would be similar if we were to give him a 33% boost in targets going into his second year, being able to benefit from the thinned-out receiver room, and also would have had him finished right around the same targets as TJ Hockenson, David Njoku, Travis Kelce, and Sam LaPorta last year.
Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir
So, we discussed how James Cook likely will be getting an approximate additional target per game, aka about 17 more targets, and Kincaid may be getting an additional 33 targets throughout the season. The thing that should still leave excitement for the Buffalo Bills receivers this season is that still leaves 256 vacated targets up for grabs. I think the two players that will benefit the most from these vacated targets this year will be Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir.
Starting with Curtis Samuel, he joined the team after signing a three-year, 24 million-dollar contract in the offseason. Curtis Samuel has been playing as a slot receiver for the majority of snaps for the past four years, but a major reason for that was due to playing with Terry McLaurin, who is a clear X, and Jahan Dotson, who could fit as a slot receiver but played a lot of Z in college.
Despite primarily playing out of the slot, he actually performed well against press per Reception Perception and has shown the ability to play outside back in 2017, 2018, and 2019 when he played as the Z in Carolina.
I feel Curtis Samuel doesn’t get a lot of respect from people, but he’s become a quality football player, even if he hasn’t been a strong fantasy performer. Samuel has steadily improved as a route runner, with Reception Perception showing that he won against man and zone coverage at rates higher than 75% of his routes last year. Also, outside of 2021, which was a lost year for Samuel due to injury, he has managed to earn at least 90 targets every single year from 2019 to 2023. On top of that, he is an elite athlete and a nightmare in space.
Honestly, the lack of production throughout Curtis Samuel’s career has been more of a product of competition around him and poor quarterback play. When he had semi-competent quarterback play in 2020 with Teddy Bridgewater as the Panthers quarterback (with Joe Brady as the offensive coordinator, by the way), Samuel finished as the WR24 in points/game in PPR.
Now that Samuel is tied with a great quarterback and he has a clear path to significant contribution with the remaining amount of vacated targets, I feel like Samuel could be in for a very good year. Plus, if we follow the free agency money, Samuel seems to be the most trustworthy receiver to trust on the Bills.
That being said, he has competition with Khalil Shakir who is one of the few returning receivers for the team and enjoyed a nice breakout year with 49 receptions, 686 yards, and four touchdowns. Shakir had a slow start to the year but picked up after the Dawson Knox injury that got him more playing time under Ken Dorsey. He maintained this playing time with Joe Brady and played at least 50% of snaps in every game other than week 15 against the Cowboys.
While Khalil Shakir got more playing time and ran more routes with Joe Brady, he actually had a drop in target percentage on routes run as he dropped from 9% target percentage with Ken Dorsey to 7% with Brady. Also, he saw a drop in his ADOT, with about 70% of his targets and receptions being under 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. The ADOT also makes sense, with Shakir playing the majority of his snaps from the slot.
Also, while Khalil Shakir had 49 receptions, he did so with elite efficiency on just 56 targets. Maybe he repeats that efficiency, but that type of efficiency is almost never sustainable. Shakir also got a lot of production in yards after catch situations but he did so more with toughness and power than quickness which could open up opportunities to take some big hits and increased injury risk with his smaller size.
The more I look at everything and think about it, the more I feel that Curtis Samuel is a better fit and the planned replacement for Stefon Diggs at the Z for the offense, while Khalil Shakir likely will continue to play from the slot. Trust me, it pains me to say this. I really liked Shakir in his rookie class and drafted him as a rookie in my dynasty league to hold onto him in case Stefon Diggs ever got hurt or moved. So, it stings to say that he might not be getting that role now that Diggs is gone.
Khalil Shakir is a very solid player and will still see solid playing time with the high rate of 11-personnel. However, Shakir will need to improve even further as a route runner and become an elite route runner with his limited athleticism if he were to become the number two target earner of a team.
I wouldn’t consider Curtis Samuel an elite route runner, but he is evidently a very good route runner, has experience outside, is successful against press, and has the elite athleticism to make him more appealing. It also feels hard to suggest that Shakir would be the number two option when he has had 79 career targets in two years, and Samuel has had more targets in each of his past four healthy seasons.
Keon Coleman
Keon Coleman has a bit of a more straightforward vision of how he will be used, with him getting compared to Gabe Davis by a number of different draft analysts. So, it only feels fitting that the Buffalo Bills take him as his replacement! As it stands at the time of writing this article, Mack Hollins, Chase Claypool, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Justin Shorter stand as his most likely competition at the X position. Marquez Valdez-Scantling is likely Coleman’s biggest competition for snaps, but I don’t foresee Coleman being unable to pass him this season.
So, a pretty clear path to the X role should help him be the top receiver for the team, right? Well, I’m not certain the X receiver is the most productive player for the Buffalo Bills offense. Last year, Gabe Davis played 83% of snaps but only saw a target on 8% of his routes. This was primarily due to a relatively basic route tree that consisted of him running clear-outs to open up space underneath.
Now, that was Gabe Davis, and we’re talking about Keon Coleman here. However, as I mentioned earlier, they were so similar that many draft analysts felt they were similar players. Where I have concerns about Coleman reaching Davis’ production this year is his struggles against press and his vertical success rate in college. These two issues also were pointed out in Reception Perception’s profile on him and could be a big barrier to him seeing consistent success as a rookie in the NFL.
If Keon Coleman gets the Gabe Davis role but struggles to stack defenders as consistently as Davis could, he could be in for a really frustrating fantasy season. Rookies, in general, take some time to adjust, and I think it would be a poor bet to expect big returns on Coleman this year. If you are in a keeper or dynasty league, though, I think he could really take off in year two if he makes those adjustments.
What could salvage Keon Coleman’s fantasy potential this year is his red zone ability. Coleman had some of the best ball tracking and body adjustment skills in the draft class and showcased these in the red zone. He has a great vertical and can extend to snatch the ball when he gets his jump timing right. If he develops good chemistry with Josh Allen around the red zone, he could have some really solid games in best ball formats.
Conclusion
Now, I don’t have a great system to estimate the number of targets for every player accurately. With the number of wild cards that we discussed above, I don’t want to just throw numbers out there for the sake of throwing out numbers. However, I feel fairly confident that the pecking order for targets this coming season will go to Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman this coming season.
Dalton Kincaid was the number two target earner last year and immediately became the number one when Stefon Diggs left. Curtis Samuel has the ability to play Diggs’ Z position, and I think his past production and recent contract are enough to believe that he will take on the number two role in the passing game this coming season.
I really like Khalil Shakir, but he would need to make some pretty big improvements again if he is going to become the number two option on the team and be anything more than a flex option with some frustrating weeks. Keon Coleman’s red zone upside could help him get good fantasy finishes, but in general, the likely challenges he will face in year one will make it hard for him to count on him as a rookie.
