@jerseyxswap
The Washington Commanders signed running back Austin Ekeler to a two-year deal worth up to $11.43 million. Ekeler has spent seven years with the Los Angeles Chargers as one of the most productive fantasy running backs over the last four seasons. He finished as the fantasy RB4 in 2022. He has scored 47 touchdowns during this stretch, accumulating 1,500 scrimmage yards in three of the seven seasons. So, one may ask, why won’t Ekeler continue to have this production?
It is crucial to note that Ekeler had career lows in yards per carry (3.5) and yards per touch (4.6) in 2023. Some believe this was due to his high ankle sprain in Week one, leading him to be banged up for the rest of the year. He finished 2023 with 1,064 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns, finishing as the RB28. It was a frustrating year for Ekeler owners, to say the least, and it seems as though the frustration will only build. Ekeler joins a jampacked committee with running backs Brian Robinson and young buck Chris Rodriguez.
He will have to compete for touches and will most likely lose early down work and goal-line touches to Robinson. Not to mention, Washington drafted rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Like most young quarterbacks, he will likely have some growing pains throughout his rookie campaign. The Commanders’ offensive line was also a weak spot for them in 2023, which can inhibit the amount of spacing that Ekeler will have to make plays.
Limited Workload
Ekeler will most likely be considered the RB1 on the Commanders’ depth chart to begin the 2024 campaign. However, this may not be the same role that Ekeler is used to. Over the past few years with the Chargers, Ekeler has been an absolute workhorse. He was the clear number one, with a little share of touches.
As stated, Ekeler now joins a running back room with 3rd year running back Brian Robinson. In 2023, Robinson racked up 1,101 total scrimmage yards, averaging 4.1 yards per carry and 36 receptions in a struggling Commanders offense. Robinson showed significant improvement and usage in his second year, being one of the few bright spots for Washington’s offense. Given his proven talent and determined style of play, I don’t see Washington putting Robinson on the back burner in 2024.
Many locals around the Commanders believe that this is still Robinson’s role to lose. They believe that Ekeler’s touches will complement Robinson and may not play a factor in his production. His ability to get into the endzone has made Austin Ekeler so effective in fantasy. However, the way it is shaping up for the Commanders’ offense and new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, it seems that Robinson will be carrying the ball in the red zone.
This would put Ekeler in a similar role as Antonio Gibson in that he will be used on passing downs and may see a few carries here and there, but Brian Robinson will be the one crossing the goal line much more frequently.
A New Signal Caller
As stated, Washington selected quarterback Jayden Daniels (LSU) with the 2nd overall pick in 2024. Daniels, who recently won the Heisman Trophy, will enter his rookie year after throwing for 3812 yards and 40 touchdowns. This seems great for Washington’s offense and should open the field more for passes to Ekeler, right? Well, Daniels also ran for 1,134 yards and ten touchdowns on 135 attempts.
Daniels is the prototypical dual-threat quarterback, and it is hard to imagine that Kingsbury will not implement this into the offensive scheme for 2024. We saw it for several years with designed runs and scrambles from Kyler Murray, Kingsbury’s former quarterback in Arizona.
Daniels’ vision and speed will be used significantly, which hinders a running back’s production. I’d assume Washington will call many designed quarterback runs, freezing Ekeler out of potential valuable touches.
One thing that was noted throughout his draft scouting report was that he has some delays in his processing, which causes him to have inaccurate throws on easy passes, especially in the short game. If Ekeler is going to be used on passing downs, this could hinder his production.
Daniels was also a deep-ball thrower at LSU, with an 8.4% big-time throw rate. He is always looking to make the big play, and as a rookie quarterback, he will go to what he knows best when in the heat of the moment. All these factors seem to hurt Ekeler’s case and could handcuff him and his overall production in 2024.
Offensive Line Struggles
The Commanders’ offensive line play was very underwhelming in 2023. This unit faced more pressure than any other team in the league. The line was pretty banged up throughout the year, with several problems at the center position. This will not be ideal for running back production, and especially in Ekeler’s production. Ekeler will most likely be used on pass plays, however with increased pressure against the offensive line, he will probably have to scratch his routes and block to help protect a young Jayden Daniels.
One of the Criticisms of the Washington Commanders is that they struggle to develop players, especially in their interior offensive line. These guys are so crucial to creating holes for running lanes, blocking for screens, and protecting the passer. The continued struggles add another reason as to why Ekeler may struggle in 2024.
Conclusion
This will be a running back room to keep an eye on as we get closer to the season. Considering all these factors, fantasy football owners should carefully monitor the Washington running back situation leading up to the 2024 NFL season. With a limited workload, a fresh quarterback, and offensive line struggles, I just don’t see the value in drafting Austin Ekeler. The safer pick would be to take Brian Robinson, as his touchdown-scoring value will make him fantasy-relevant.
