Let’s set the scene. The date is February 11, 2024, and the Kansas City Chiefs have just defeated the San Francisco 49ers with a final score of 25-22 that included a game-winning touchdown pass to now-free agent Mecole Hardman Jr. Through our televisions, we see the field covered in red and yellow confetti. Allegiant Stadium erupts with celebrations from fans and players alike as Super Bowl-branded hats and t-shirts are handed out among the Chiefs’ staff and roster.
Patrick Mahomes has won his third Super Bowl, this win further cementing his ever-growing Hall of Fame resume. Travis Kelce is furthering his push to be considered the best tight end of all time. The Chiefs’ defense gets their flowers, and Andy Reid claims another title. These images are plastered over news outlets for weeks as the newly-crowned champions celebrate their victory.
Unfortunately, one team had to lose. In the championship rematch, San Francisco fell to Kansas City for the second time. Second-year quarterback Brock Purdy made his way to the team’s locker room with the rest of his teammates after the devastating loss, and the NFC Champions began to prepare for the journey home and the long offseason ahead.
Oddly, the next morning’s outlets ran an unexpected story among the countless reiterations of Kansas City’s victory. Superstar wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk had made waves with his response to a question regarding his future with the 49ers. The reporter asked Aiyuk if he was likely to remain with his current team. Aiyuk responded with, “If that’s the right move, yeah.”
The flames of this response from the seemingly disgruntled wide receiver were further fanned by his best friend and girlfriend. The former posted to his story on Instagram to comment on Aiyuk’s lack of targets and receptions in the Super Bowl, and the latter posted a TikTok video suggesting that she may no longer set foot in the 49ers' Levi’s Stadium.
These posts, paired with the fact that Brandon Aiyuk’s rookie contract is up after the 2024 season, have created a massive amount of speculation about the future of both Aiyuk and the 49ers.
Then, in mid-April, two events occurred that took the sports social media world by storm. Firstly, on April 12, Brandon Aiyuk unfollowed the 49ers on Instagram. Then, on April 14, Aiyuk’s agent, Ryan Williams, denied a rumor that Aiyuk had requested a trade from San Francisco. Even though Williams denied the report, trade speculation for the superstar had never been higher.
The lines have been drawn in the sand: Either Aiyuk gets a massive extension from the 49ers, or he walks in free agency next year and joins a team that is willing to pay him handsomely. A contract dispute-fueled holdout may be looming in the Bay Area, and with reports saying that the wideout wants at least $30 million annually, this is shaping up to be a very difficult situation for San Francisco.
The Case FOR Brandon Aiyuk:
The case for Brandon Aiyuk receiving a $30 million per year extension is a strong one. From a statistical standpoint, he is one of the most valuable players in the league. In 16 games, he racked up 1342 yards on only 75 receptions, and his yardage total was good enough for seventh-best in the league. Aiyuk excels as an option down the field, averaging 17.9 yards per reception (second in the NFL), 3.69 yards per route run (third in the NFL), 12.8 yards per target (first in the NFL), and an average depth of target of 11.5 (third in the NFL).
He’s a great fit across from his teammate Deebo Samuel, who has struggled to stay healthy in the past. Brandon Aiyuk is also an elite route-runner. His ability to separate and get open was topped off with a target per route run percentage of 30.9%, which was tied for sixth among receivers. The wideout has been a huge asset to the team and truly took up the mantle of the alpha receiver for the 49ers this year.
Aiyuk has set himself up for a nice payday and stands out among his draft class, having the third-most receiving yards, the fourth-most receptions, and the fourth-most receiving touchdowns among that elite group. He is deserving of a large contract, but it is worth questioning whether or not he has entered the upper echelon of the NFL’s group of alpha receivers.
Looking at the scope of the league, many wideouts have already been paid the big bucks this offseason. These names include Philadelphia’s A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, the former receiving the largest wide receiver contract in NFL history. Miami's Jaylen Waddle was also paid very well and his role is arguably smaller than Aiyuk’s. This, paired with the fact that the wide receiver market gets richer every offseason, could lead the 49ers to want to get Aiyuk’s extension agreed upon before players like CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson break the bank, hiking up Aiyuk’s price tag.
Another movement in league personnel at large suggests that the 49ers need Aiyuk. Many teams have made it a priority to obtain three starter-level receivers on their rosters. One example of this is the Tennessee Titans, who have surrounded Will Levis with DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, and Tyler Boyd. The Jets have added Mike Williams and Malachi Corley to a corps that already contains Garrett Wilson.
The Colts added AD Mitchell to fit in with Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. This is a similar style to the personnel that led the Bengals to a Super Bowl appearance with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Therefore, to keep opposing defenses on their toes, it may serve the 49ers’ interests to keep Aiyuk, Samuel, and Pearsall.
Lastly, Aiyuk’s contract request may not be as extreme as we think. The salary cap - the amount of money that each team is allowed to pay their players - has risen at an average of 6.9% every year. This number grows to 8.5% if the revenue numbers resulting from COVID-19 are discarded. Players will continue to ask for more money because the league is continuing to generate a large amount of revenue. Aiyuk’s contract demand may not look as expensive in a few years, especially after Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, and the rest of the young star receivers sign their second contracts.
Dynasty Fallout: If Aiyuk is re-signed, he remains in the system that has allowed him to produce elite numbers. However, Pearsall’s arrival poses a threat to Aiyuk volume-wise. This is the safer option, but could lead to a slight dip in production over the next few years.
The Case AGAINST Brandon Aiyuk
The ugly truth in San Francisco is hidden within their expiring contracts over the next two years. A shocking amount of their roster is scheduled to hit free agency over that time span, and extending Aiyuk might make it hard to have room for any other stars to return to the team in the future.
Notable players with expiring contracts after the 2024 NFL Season: Elijah Mitchell, Deommodore Lenoir, Ambry Thomas, Aaron Banks, Talanoa Hufanga, Dre Greenlaw, Charvarius Ward
Notable players with expiring contracts after the 2025 NFL Season: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Kyle Juszczyk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
This powerful argument is strengthened by the fact that Ricky Pearsall was selected with the 31st pick in this April’s NFL Draft. Pearsall may be Aiyuk’s replacement. High-ceiling players on rookie contracts are very valuable in this league, and the 49ers believe that they have one at a position that may become volatile. Pearsall is a great route-runner and had a good showing at the Reese’s Senior Bowl. This led to him being selected in the first round.
Unfortunately for Aiyuk, he is not the only truly explosive veteran pass-catcher in San Francisco. Deebo Samuel compiled 892 receiving yards and 225 rushing yards, tacking on 12 total touchdowns and 527 yards after the catch in 2023. At the tight end position, George Kittle is one of the best of this decade so far, excelling as both a blocker and a receiver.
Last season, Kittle had just over 1000 yards and six touchdowns. As far as free agency goes, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin, and Tee Higgins all have solid chances to test the market next year. All in all, the 49ers may be able to replace Brandon Aiyuk’s production through free agency and the draft next year.
As mentioned previously, Brandon Aiyuk is reportedly seeking $30 million or more per year on his new contract, which would effectively put him neck and neck with Lions star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. The problem with this is that St. Brown put up 1515 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, both of which greatly surpass Aiyuk’s marks. If San Francisco grants his demands, we may look back in a few years and wonder how they could’ve approved such a large contract for a player who had a far less productive season than St. Brown.
Dynasty Fallout: If Aiyuk is traded or walks in free agency, he will most likely be the number one target wherever he goes. Expect his target and reception numbers to increase. However, there are risks to Aiyuk leaving San Francisco. He may not produce as well in a new system or with a new quarterback.
The Verdict
While Aiyuk proved himself as an elite receiver in the NFL, I don’t believe that the San Francisco 49ers are in a position to pay him $30 million a year. They have too many vital impending free agents over the next few years to risk a potential overpay here. Aiyuk is a great player, and if I were the 49ers I would instead look to pay him on a long-term contract somewhere in the $24-$27 million per year range. They have other playmakers, especially on offense, that play extremely important roles.
Those roles achieved a Super Bowl appearance for San Francisco last season and the team doesn’t have enough cash to pay their star receiver that amount of money. Overall, Aiyuk is a quality player, but isn’t in a good enough position to receive the Amon-Ra St. Brown-type of contract that he is seeking.
