If you somehow haven’t had your dynasty rookie draft yet, this article will help you make the best third/fourth-round pick possible. For those of you who have already drafted by the end of this article, you’re going to want to send a cheap trade offer out for Spencer Rattler. Lastly, if you drafted Rattler in your rookie draft, congratulations! Take this time to sit back and take your victory lap.
High School Pedigree
Starting in high school, Spencer Rattler was ranked as the number one quarterback in his class before committing to Oklahoma. The five-star recruit was labeled as a pro-style quarterback due to his fantastic pocket presence, accuracy, and delivery. Of course, there are a ton of top prospects who don’t pan out, but this gives you an idea of a player's raw ability.
The main thing people will remember about Rattler in high school is his show QB1: Beyond the Lights. Rattler was portrayed in a terrible light, and based on the show, it seemed like he was a horrible teammate. Now, it seems like things got much better during his time at South Carolina, but there were still repercussions. According to NFL insider Ian Rapoport, "It did not make him look great, and it is unbelievable how many different teams mentioned to me the image of him in that show and how they can't get it out of their heads."
College Prospect Profile
In his official freshman season, Rattler looked great, throwing for 3,031 yards and 28 touchdowns to seven interceptions in 11 games. It seemed like Rattler was going to live up to the hype and dominate. Rattler was the projected number-one overall pick in a Way-Too-Early 2022 NFL Mock Draft by Bleacher Report.
However, in year two, he took a major step down, finishing the year with a 1,483-11-5 stat line in nine games. Rattler only played in nine games because he was benched for future number-one pick Caleb Williams. This killed Rattler’s confidence, and he had no choice but to transfer to South Carolina.
Despite all of this, Rattler had an excuse since everyone knew how special Williams was. It was a compliment to Williams, more than a knock on Rattler in the eyes of most NFL insiders. The same couldn’t be said at the end of the year when he put up a 3,026-18-12 season.
Now, South Carolina was never a great situation, and Rattler had a horrible offensive line for his last two seasons. When you turn on the film, it’s clear that Rattler was always under pressure and he did a much better job of handling it in 2023. In Rattler’s senior season, he took a slight step up and threw for 3,186 yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
This decline in production is worrisome, but seeing Rattler break out as a freshman is almost more important. You won’t find any other 5th round quarterback with this same kind of pedigree and early breakout as Rattler. Seeing a decrease in production is scary, but his upside is undeniable. From watching Rattler’s all-22 film, he showed elite arm talent, good accuracy to all three levels and the ability to create out of structure.
Future Outlook
Despite his up-and-down college career, many had Rattler penciled in as a day-two pick prior to the NFL draft. This didn’t happen, and instead, he fell all the way into the fifth round. The landing spot for Rattler is very ideal, though, as he was drafted by the Saints. Derek Carr is 33 years old and hasn’t been performing very well recently. The only issue is that he has a 51 million dollar cap hit in 2025, but there is a potential out for the Saints in 2026.
To see if Rattler has a chance of winning this starting job, let’s look at what Carr did in his first year with the Saints. Carr had a better statistical season than I expected, throwing for 3,875 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. That said, it’s nothing to write home about either. On film, Carr simply didn’t do anything special, so I want to take a look at some of his advanced stats. Carr finished 20th (6.16) on one of the most important stats, accuracy rating.
The main issue is that Carr will only be regressing at 33 years old, and he’s not that good in the first place. Rattler has all the tools; the question is if he can mature into an NFL-ready quarterback. Since 2020, the team hasn’t won more than ten games and Carr doesn’t seem like the answer to take them over the top. Sure, Rattler might turn out to be nothing, but I expect the Saints to give him a shot after he’s had time to develop.
The most likely path for Rattler is that he’ll be given one year to be the bridge quarterback in 2026. That being said, there’s a legit chance, Carr sucks this year, and Rattler gets to start a few games at the end of the season. If that happens, Rattler would immediately rise in value and give you a profit no matter what happens after.
Rookie Draft Value
According to South Harmon ADP, Rattler has an ADP of 3.11. At this price point, I’m taking Rattler all day long because his upside is night and day above the players he’s being drafted next to. I’d gladly take him over Braelon Allen, who is going at the 3.10 due to his unimpressive prospect profile and horrible situation. Keep in mind the Jets took Isaiah Davis one round after Allen.
Would you rather bet on Bucky Irving at the 3.07, making an impact instead? Irving won’t have the receiving role over Rachaad White, and he’s not a great runner either. At 5′ 9″ 194 lbs, Irving has an extremely capped ceiling and I’m not looking to hit singles in the mid to late third round anyways. The end of the third round is where you should be taking upside swings, and Rattler is by far the best dart throw in this 2024 rookie class.
