Last week, I looked at players that contenders should target for this coming year. So, this week, I’ll be looking at players that rebuilders should target. If you’re feeling confident in your team and feel you’re in the wrong place, you can check out my article for contenders with this link:
For background, I used KeepTradeCut’s Superflex rankings to get estimated values for these players. I then used players that are worth the equivalent of a 2024 2nd, 2024 3rd, and 2024 4th for rebuilders. While I likely wouldn’t recommend for a rebuilder to move picks, I wanted to use a similar system as my contender article to get similar player values.
I focused on players who may not have great perceived value but could see a rise in value either in the upcoming season or in future seasons. Also, I excluded rookies from this list to diversify it from other articles that focus on players to target in rebuilds. So, let’s get to it!
2nd Round Value Target:
Jahan Dotson, WR
(Washington Commanders)
There may not be many Jahan Dotson fans still out there, but I’m still a believer. Dotson was one of the more promising rookies of the 2022 draft who was on pace to finish with 50 receptions, 740 yards, and ten touchdowns before a hamstring caused him to miss five games. Unfortunately, he followed that up with a very disappointing second year, where he regressed in nearly all of these categories other than receptions despite playing a full season. That regression could understandably scare people, but I think we will see more of Dotson’s rookie form than what we saw last year.
A big reason why Jahan Dotson’s yards and touchdown totals were down last was a combination of poor offensive line play, Sam Howell’s play, and Eric Bieniemy’s play calling. The poor offensive line forced a higher rate of check-down passes that decreased the big play threat of the Washington Commanders’ offense.
We saw this directly impact Dotson with a major regression in targets past 20 yards from the line of scrimmage, finishing with only 12.7% of his targets going past this point last year compared to 30.4% as a rookie, leading to the regression in his yards. Also, Sam Howell was one of the least efficient red zone passers last year, finishing 29th in completion percentage within 10 yards and 24th within 20 yards compared to all quarterbacks who started at least eight games.
An improved offensive line should allow for more big plays for the Commanders offense. Also, a change from Howell to Jayden Daniels who was great at hitting receivers deep and hopefully can provide at least average success in the red zone will make a big difference for Dotson. In addition, moving on from Bieniemy who reportedly seemed in over his head should help for a more consistent and reliable game plan.
Jahan Dotson still has competition for targets with Terry McLaurin but did see the team move on from Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas, who took away a lot of opportunity last year with the play designs. The Washington Commanders brought in Luke McCaffrey and Ben Sinnott, but both are rookies and may not be able to be trusted right away, which opens the way for Dotson.
Also, I don’t expect the Commanders to move on from McLaurin, but he is a cut candidate after this season, so there isn’t a 100% chance that McLaurin will be on the team next year. Finally, even if the Commanders keep McLaurin in the future and the rookies come along well, Kliff Kingsbury has always had a high rate of three-wide receiver sets and pass rate, which will still provide plenty of opportunity for Dotson.
There aren’t many opportunities to obtain a potentially ascending receiver under the age of 25, and Dotson could be the best opportunity out there. He could definitely crash and burn in his third year. However, if he hits and Jayden Daniels looks anything like his Heisman self, you could be set with a strong starter for the next several years.
3rd Round Value Target:
Ty Chandler, RB
(Minnesota Vikings)
This might seem like an odd choice and could potentially be obtained with a late 3rd or even high 4th, but Ty Chandler’s spot here has a lot to do with the potential to flip him during the season. As it stands now, Aaron Jones is the clear RB1 for the Minnesota Vikings (it feels gross saying that as a Green Bay Packers fan). However, Chandler is essentially the only true running back behind him.
Kene Nwangwu has only been seen as a return specialist so far in his career. DeWayne McBride had some fans in the pre-draft process last year but had vision and fumble issues as a college player while also having a limited skill set that makes it hard for him to carve out a role.
Meanwhile, Ty Chandler hasn’t had a lot of opportunities but was efficient in his opportunities with the 25th most yards after contact/carry for any back with at least 100 touches (ahead of players like Travis Etienne, D’Andre Swift, Kyren Williams, and Kenneth Walker), 23rd in EPA, and had an 84% catch rate on 25 targets last year. So, he has shown that he can be a productive back when relied on.
Even if you aren’t sold on the talent, Ty Chandler’s only hurdle to playing time is a back that is going to be 30 years old next season. I’m still a big Aaron Jones fan, but we have to be realistic with our expectations on older backs, especially for Jones, who just missed a significant amount of time last year due to injury. Even if Jones does stay healthy, he’s on a one-year contract, and Chandler could be handed the starting role like Alexander Mattison after sitting and serving as a backup for the first few years of his career.
I believe there are multiple paths to getting more of a return on the potential investment of Ty Chandler. First, Aaron Jones could potentially be the starter this year but move on next year and clear the way for Chandler to be the starter the following year. Second, Jones could get injured during the year and Chandler’s stock would immediately rise.
A potential late 3rd-rounder leading to potentially multiple paths to a return on investment isn’t common and something I think most people should consider. Whether you believe in Ty Chandler’s talent or not will determine if you feel it would be best to hold him or flip him for more value. Either way, I think you can either sell yourself on a possible flex RB option in the future or a trade piece for a future move with the right timing.
4th Round Value Target:
Evan Hull, RB
(Indianapolis Colts)
Finishing out the list we have Evan Hull on the Indianapolis Colts. I’ll be the first to admit that I wasn’t a big fan of Hull during the pre-draft process last year, but I’m surprised to see the community so low on him. He’s in somewhat of a similar situation as Ty Chandler, Jonathan Taylor’s backup, and there is not much competition behind him. Taylor is much younger than Jones but has had his fair share of injury history these past few years, which may create opportunities for Hull.
Now, the difficult part in assessing Evan Hull is that we have a very limited sample size, with him suffering a season-ending meniscus injury in the first game of the season. However, with the Indianapolis Colts not pursuing more reinforcements in free agency or the draft, it seems they feel confident in his ability and recovery. Hull also has reliable hands as a pass catcher, which could lead to him carving out a role and consistent playing time over his competition if he holds up in pass protection.
I can’t pretend that Evan Hull has a path to being a starting running back outside of a major injury. However, the potential role on the offense provides a possible emergency flex down the road during bye weeks. In the best-case scenario, Hull could definitely be flipped for more or used as a throw-in if he ever becomes a target hog or steps up in a situation where Jonathan Taylor misses some game.
