Whether you’re waiting to start your rookie draft, have already completed your rookie draft, or are about to embark on a dynasty startup, I’ve highlighted four players whose values are currently too low and are primed to see them increase. Whether it’s because of their talent, improved situation, new opportunity, or health, these players will add value to your dynasty roster at a low cost. I’ve analyzed KeepTradeCut values and Sleeper startup ADPs to find these diamonds in the rough.
Luke Musgrave
The Green Bay Packers just came off a season tied for fourth among NFL offenses with 0.086 expected points added (EPA) per play while ranking 7th in the league in touchdowns with 50. Yes, they have a lot of mouths to feed, and Luke Musgrave didn’t compile big numbers like some other rookie tight ends last year, totaling just 352 receiving yards.
He also had one touchdown in 11 games before ending his season on injured reserve. However, when he was healthy, his usage in comparison to teammate Tucker Kraft when they were both available shows who the Packers envision to be the top tight end.
Musgrave was more of the move tight end or receiving tight end, lining up in the slot and even on the outside. Musgrave averaged 1.35 yards per route run compared to Kraft’s 1.08, with an average depth of target of 7.3 yards versus Kraft’s 4.9. Kraft also spent a higher percentage of his snaps in a blocking role, 51.3% to 38.4%.
If this usage trend continues, Musgrave will be the primary receiving tight end for an ascending Jordan Love on an explosive offense. He’s coming off the board in the 13th round in dynasty Superflex startups as TE18. He can be obtained for a 2024 late 2nd-round pick or early 3rd-round pick.
Marvin Mims
With Jerry Jeudy and his 17.5% target share over his three-year career with the Denver Broncos gone and traded to the Cleveland Browns and Tim Patrick recovering from a torn ACL, Marvin Mims has a path to fantasy relevance. Also, the current top target, Courtland Sutton, wants a new contract, so if he remains a holdout, that only furthers the possibility that Mims can take on a larger role. Yes, they drafted Troy Franklin, who was presumptive starter Bo Nix’s favorite target at Oregon, but he’s still just a rookie with a learning curve coming into the NFL.
Mims was Sean Peyton’s guy as a 2nd round draft pick last year, and his metrics as a rookie were promising as a primary deep threat, averaging 15.1 yards per target, with 34.4% of his targets coming 20 or more yards down the field. It won’t take much to acquire him, and he’s worth taking a shot. Mims is being drafted in Superflex startups in the 15th round as WR74. And can be obtained for a 2024 early 3rd round pick.
Najee Harris
Since the Pittsburgh Steelers declined to pick up the fifth-year option for Najee Harris, his ADP has fallen from RB19 to RB25. Yet, quietly, he’s a winner this off-season. The Steelers invested heavily in their offensive line and brought in Arthur Smith as Offensive Coordinator. I think there will be a renewed focus on running the ball. Say what you will about Smith as a head coach and how he mishandled Bijan Robinson, but as an offensive coordinator, he definitely had success with the Tennessee Titans running the rock.
Sure, Harris's touch share has decreased with the rise of Jaylen Warren, but he’s still the early down/goalline back who has also proven capable of catching passes. He’s also durable, starting all 17 games in his first three seasons, and consistent, eclipsing 1,000 yards rushing in those same years. Yes, there’s uncertainty regarding his future, which probably won’t be in Pittsburgh, but he will get a second contract as a lead back somewhere, and he can obtain it at a reasonable cost.
If the Pittsburgh Steelers offense even gains a sliver of productivity, Harris will have much more opportunity and success on the ground. Because let’s face it, they were a putrid offense the last two years with Kenny Pickett under center, so much so Mason Rudolph actually gave them a spark when he was inserted into the starting job at the end of last year. Harris is going in the 9th round of Superflex startup drafts as RB25. And can be obtained for a 2024 mid 2nd round pick or even a 2025 2nd.
Deshaun Watson
Deshaun Watson had a stretch between 2018 and 2020 where he finished QB4, QB5 & QB5 for fantasy football. Of his five full starts last year, he finished as a top 10 fantasy quarterback in three of them. If you can get top-10 finishes from a guy drafted as a backend QB2, that’s a home run, and if he can actually recapture those top-5 overall finishes, you’ve struck gold.
The Cleveland Browns have no realistic out of his contract until the end of 2026. And they continue to express belief after the injuries the last two seasons that he can regain that elite form. They let Joe Flacco walk in free agency despite how well he performed helping them get to the playoffs last year. They brought in another pass-catching weapon in Jerry Jeudy to go along with Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore & David Njoku.
Watson is currently going in the 8th round of Superflex startup drafts at QB23 and can be obtained for an early 2024 2nd-round pick. So if you’re thinking of drafting Bo Nix or Michael Penix, consider trading that pick for Watson. Despite all his years and experience in the NFL, Watson is only 28 years old!
