Bestball is all the rage. Everyone loves to draft a fantasy team but might not have the time to manage their roster. Several factors go into drafting a winning best ball roster, like your roster construction, player stacks, same-game player correlations, and ADP discounts. Analysis of previous winning rosters of Underdog’s best ball tournaments has shown these things to all contribute to a winning formula, but in this article, I will focus on ADP discounts.
Who are some players you can draft this year to outperform their ADP and give your team an advantage? I will be referencing the current Underdog ADP, positional ranking, and season scoring projections under each player’s name before presenting my full analysis. So, let’s dive in!
Ezekiel Elliot
ADP 130, RB 40, PROJ 157
Ezekiel Elliot ended the 2023 season as RB32 last year. Yet he only took on a significant role after Rhamondre Stevenson landed on injured reserve with an ankle injury to finish the season. When Elliott had the backfield to himself, though, he surprisingly produced solid numbers. His blocking and receiving skills allowed him to stay on the field for all three downs, catching a ton of passes and actually leading the New England Patriots in receptions in 2023.
Elliot may never be an RB1 again, something he hasn’t done since the 2021 season, but he definitely has RB2 upside as the main running back in Dallas, with only Rico Dowdle likely to take carries away. So, with a potential three-down role and a lot of touchdown equity on a high-powered offense (40 catches and 10 TDs are totally realistic), it’s easy to see a path for him to well outperform his ADP as a pick at the end of the 11th round. In my latest Underdog draft, that’s exactly where I picked him as my 4th running back. He will definitely add value to your best ball roster that late in drafts.
Rashee Rice
ADP 82, WR 47, PROJ 159
We all know why Rashee Rice’s ADP has plummeted. But no matter where I look, his worst projection is 154 half-PPR points finishing at WR36, and that’s already taking into account the possibility of him playing only 14 games, whether that’s due to injury or a looming suspension. ESPN’s half-point PPR projections have him ending as WR27.
If he doesn’t get suspended this season as the NFL waits for the legal process to play out before they take action (which may not be until 2025), Rice will far exceed those projections. Buy the dip. He’s going late in the 7th round of Underdog drafts. And his value is likely to continue to drop due to the uncertainty of his situation (his ADP actually dropped one spot already in the couple of days I’ve been working on this article). You’ll be getting a solid WR2 at WR4 prices.
Baker Mayfield
ADP 169, QB 22, PROJ 264.5
Baker Mayfield finished as QB10 in total points last season. He surprised many by throwing for over 4,000 yards with 28 TDs to 10 interceptions. He’s currently going off the board as QB22 on Underdog. Even if he doesn’t replicate exactly last year’s numbers, there’s no reason for him, barring injury, not to finish the season as a backend QB1 or top QB2. Meanwhile, you can draft him shockingly late in the 15th round.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers returned everyone on offense, and the only change is Liam Coen as the new offensive coordinator. Regardless of the new offensive system (which is a variation of previous offensive coordinator Dave Canales’s, both of whom stem from the Sean McVay coaching tree), Baker is still throwing to Mike Evans on the outside.
Also, Coen has moved Chris Godwin back to his natural position in the slot where he’s always been most effective and productive, so that’s another reliable target in the middle of the field for Baker besides tight end Cade Otton. Rachaad White will still be a safety valve coming out of the backfield. They also drafted running back Bucky Irving and wide receiver Jalen McMillan, both of whom are talented enough to contribute as rookies.
So unless Baker has a major regression, I can’t see how he’s not worth the chance that late in drafts. In one Underdog draft I just completed, I got Tua Tagovailoa in the 13th round as my first quarterback and then Baker in the 14th as my 2nd quarterback, which to me is just beautiful (if you’re like me and don’t think paying up for a top quarterback will pay dividends this year). Up to that point in the draft, I was able to stack my roster with seven wide receivers, four running backs, and a starting tight end.
Evan Engram
ADP 77, TE 8, PROJ 131
Evan Engram was TE2 in half-point PPR formats last season, yet he’s being drafted as TE8 on Underdog. And why shouldn’t he repeat what he did last year (which, by the way, was 171 half-PPR points)?
The Jags lost Calvin Ridley to free agency and cut Zay Jones. Their addition was Gabe Davis, who has never garnered a consistent target share ever in his career since he's primarily a deep threat field-stretcher. They also drafted Brian Thomas Jr., who has the potential to do it all with his size and speed but will still be a rookie with a lot to learn and adjust to in the NFL.
Engram grew to be Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target last year, particularly while Christian Kirk was injured. But even with Kirk now healthy, Engram should command a consistently high target share. May I also point out that Engram only scored four touchdowns last season? The only tight ends last year to finish in the top 10 and catch fewer touchdowns were Trey McBride & Taysom Hill.
So I think there could be some positive regression there, as this Jaguars offense is poised to be more explosive overall and more efficient in the red zone, where they really faltered last year, particularly down the stretch.
