If you look at the box score, it may seem like Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson has been only average through two years in New York. One could speculate that he declined as a player after his rookie season when he won the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. He is a solid, but not elite, wide receiver who hasn’t quite lived up to everything he was drafted to be. That is not the case. Not even close. Wilson is a true alpha wide receiver and has, at times, been the only bright spot on the Jets offense over the last two years. He is undoubtedly a difference-maker and a high-ceiling superstar at the wideout position.
Horrible Quarterback Play
Unfortunately, like many wide receivers over the history of the existence of the National Football League, he has been held back by the Jets’ quarterback play throughout his career. This has not only affected his ceiling and production as a fantasy football asset, but as a player. He has compiled over 2100 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in two years while having Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle under center.
Every single one of those quarterbacks is either currently the backup for their team or worse. He also hasn’t ever had a true number two option to open up space from the opposing defense. Neither Corey Davis nor Allen Lazard were able to surpass 600 receiving yards in a season during their stints in New York. Specifically looking through the lens of Wilson’s fantasy value, the wide receiver logged 168 targets, 95 receptions, 1042 receiving yards, and three touchdowns in 2023.
He also had nine games with ten or more targets last year, so the volume is there. That was good enough to finish as the fantasy WR26 in PPR (point-per-reception) scoring formats. In PPR, Wilson put up ten games of 10+ fantasy points but only one contest with 20+ fantasy points. In other words, he was good, but not great, last year, fantasy-wise.
When you observe even a few games of his film, it’s impressive that he even reached those numbers with the quarterbacks he was dealing with. Zach Wilson may still be developing, but his poor play limited both the offensive playbook and the fantasy values of the Jets’ starters. Missed throws and bad reads were far too common while trying to keep the team afloat last year.
Massive Quarterback Upgrade
It’s time to wake up and realize that those problems have been solved. The “Same Old Jets” may not be the same or old any longer. An infusion of talent and youth has vaulted this team, specifically the offense, into a great position to win their division this year and, in turn, to move Wilson into fantasy superstardom. This pivotal change is centered around Aaron Rodgers, new offensive pieces, and the continued dominance of the defense.
Picking up on this shift could result in disappointment by October, so don’t miss out in your fantasy drafts. The fantasy community must forgive the Jets for their disappointments in 2023. If fantasy managers were able to move past the “Injury-Prone CMC” era, they could certainly move past the Jets’ struggles without their starting quarterback.
The fact is that this year, the Jets are different. I know what you’re thinking: “I thought they were supposed to be ‘new’ last year!” After new quarterback Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles in Week 1 of the 2023 season, the Jets’ offense was never the same. Last year was a disappointment due to the injury to Rodgers and the poor production of the offensive free agents that Rodgers had hand-picked to join the team last offseason.
It’s safe to say that neither Allen Lazard nor Randall Cobb have worked out in the Big Apple. The elite defense kept the team afloat enough to barely reach seven wins. The difference is that the Jets have reset their offense. Rodgers returns after his early injury in 2023. Former Chargers wideout Mike Williams was added in free agency.
Complementary Pieces in Place
The Jets selected former Western Kentucky receiver Malachi Corley with the first pick of the third round in this past April’s draft. Many have optimism that this new receiver trio will complement each other very well. Reports have already come out about Corley impressing early at Jets OTAs. While not all of these rumors are confirmed, the offensive line has been rebuilt with valuable assets such as Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, Olu Fashanu, and John Simpson.
Depth has been added to the running back room behind Breece Hall through the draft. This depth, paired with an elite defense loaded with superstars, has primed the Jets for a successful 2023 season. Wilson will get more touches that actually result in valuable yards with a great quarterback at the helm of the offense.
With an improved offensive line, Rodgers will have more time to throw than Zach Wilson ever did. The run game will also improve because of this, resulting in opposing defenses having to respect both phases of the Jets’ offense in a schematic sense. All in all, in every phase of the offense, Wilson has been freed to finally have the fantasy breakout we’ve been waiting for.
Verdict
He’s usually ranked around the WR8 position, so you’re getting a premium player who could easily break out at a very fair price tag in your fantasy drafts. At his ceiling, he could be a top-five receiver in fantasy this season. It cannot be overstated how much his situation has improved. In conclusion, Wilson may be a bit of a risk for fantasy managers, but he is indeed worth his price tag in drafts. He is an elite talent who is in the perfect position to succeed this year in New York. Don’t fall for the illusion that this Jets team is just like its predecessors.
This group is built from the ground up with superstars and young talent. Risk-takers are rewarded in fantasy football, and with a deep group of wide receivers in drafts, managers can afford to take this chance. By the end of this year, Wilson’s fantasy stock will be among the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja’Marr Chase.
