Synopsis and Model Background

Dating back to last year, I've devoted hundreds of hours to analyzing data and advanced metrics that correlate to NFL success for Wide Receiver prospects. The draft model I developed evaluates each prospect based on a multitude of variables and metrics, each meticulously analyzed and weighed in proportion to their significance and correlation to NFL success.

I've developed several composite scores directly influencing a prospect's grade, with each composite score comprising its own set of weighted metrics. The following scores are included:

Production Score: Accounts for a prospect's overall collegiate production along with production on a per-game basis

Efficiency Score: Takes into account several metrics such as YPRR, First Down & Touchdown Per Route Run, QBR when Targeted, etc.

Film Score: This is the one score that I directly outsource (as made obvious by my name) from several different sources, which allows me to put together a quantifiable film score

Athletic Score: Takes into account athletic measurements but also outsources scores such as RAS (Relative Athleticism Score) or PFF GAS (Game Athleticism Score)

Deep Threat Score: Accounts for how a prospect produces as a deep threat including metrics like Air Yards Per Target, Air Yardage %, speed, etc. 

YAC Score: Accounts for how a prospect produces as a YAC threat, including metrics like Avoided Tackle Rate, YAC Per Reception, YAC %, etc. 

Multi-Threat Score: Accounts for how a prospect produces as a multi-threat receiver. Weighs a prospect's Deep Threat Score and YAC score along with other variables. 

My predictive draft model also incorporates multipliers that impact a prospect's grade. Some examples of these multipliers include: Competition Level, Size, Red Flags, and Age. Without further delay, please enjoy my prospect rankings 21-30. Analytical Prospect Rankings (6-10). Grades range on a scale of 1-10

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10 - Xavier Worthy

(Prospect Grade: 6.00, Tier 4)

Prospect Composite Scores

Production Score: 6.38
Efficiency Score: 4.86
Athletic Score: 9.40
Deep Threat Score: 4.98
YAC Score: 7.52

Positives

- Xavier Worthy is another example of an elite athlete in this year's WR class. Since there are so many elite athletes in this year's draft class, it's almost hard to list athleticism as a positive. However, Worthy possesses elite speed that none of the other prospects can match.

- While everyone is aware of Worthy's record-breaking 4.21 speed, Worthy also has an elite composite explosion profile with a 41' vertical and 131' broad jump. Worthy scored a 9.40 RAS

- Productive career in his three years at Texas. Amongst all receivers projected to go in the top 3 rounds, Worthy has the 4th best production profile, behind only the consensus top 3.

- Worthy also has one of the best breakout ages amongst any prospect of the last five years, with a breakout age of 18.4 (97th percentile). For comparison, his teammate Adonai Mitchell had a breakout age 3.5 years older at 21.9.

- Worthy has a career YPRR of 2.21. While not one of the highest in this year's class, it's well above any concerning thresholds. More impressive than his career YPRR of 2.21, Worthy has a YPRR vs Zone of 2.38.

- Inside-Out versatility. Despite Worthy's small frame, the majority of his snaps came outside.

- Avoided tackle rate of 16%. Not particularly a strength, but also not concerning. For reference, this was better than receivers like Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, Devontez Walker, Marvin Harrison Jr, Adonai Mitchell, Ricky Pearsall, Roman Wilson, and Jermaine Burton.

Negatives

- Major weight and frame concerns. If it wasn't for the recent success of players like Devonta Smith and Tank Dell, Worthy's frame would be an even bigger concern. Even so, no WR in NFL history has proven to become a high-end WR1 for a team at his weight, so Worthy may be a better fit to be a team's WR2 / Z-Receiver than their WR1 / X-Receiver.

- Worthy has the 4th lowest career QBR when targeted of any prospect in this year's class. This is a more translatable metric than people are aware of. Amongst 29 WRs drafted in the last 5 years and have a PFR AV of 6 or more, Worthy would have the lowest career QBR when targeted.
Low career catch rate of <60% and a low contested catch rate of only 34%. 

- Despite his speed, Worthy has a lack of success as a deep threat. This may be more indicative of how Texas used him, but only 234 of Worthy's 1,014 receiving yards last year were deep years. In contrast, 35% of Worthy's receptions last year came on screens.

- While he does meet the majority of thresholds in his analytical profile, Worthy doesn't rank particularly high in any of them. He ranks average in about every notable advanced metric (outside of breakout age). This is not necessarily a concern, but it does highlight that he doesn't have the analytical profile as many of the other prospects in this class.

Model Comp(s)

Hit with a similar grade: Tank Dell (5.68 Grade)

Miss with a similar grade: Tylan Wallace (5.97 Grade)

9 - Brian Thomas Jr

(Prospect Grade: 6.10, Tier 4)

Prospect Composite Scores

Production Score: 4.80
Efficiency Score: 6.19
Athletic Score: 9.45
Deep Threat Score: 7.39
YAC Score: 6.00

Positives

- Top tier athlete. According to RAS, Brian Thomas Jr has an elite composite speed profile and great size and explosion profiles. 

- Has the highest Career QBR when targeted of any prospect in this year's WR class. QBR may seem like it is dependent on the quarterback, but there's actually a decently high correlation between QBR and wide receiver success in the NFL.

- Top-5 in this year's WR class for Touchdown Per Route Run and is first in Touchdown Per Target. 

- 3rd highest catch rate in this year's class at 72%. Thomas also had a contested catch rate of 47%, which was good for the middle of the pack.

- Thomas exploded on the scene in 2023, with a career year finishing with almost 1,200 yards and 17 touchdowns. Thomas' overall production profile isn't great, but he had one of the best single seasons of any prospect in this year's class.

- Not only one of the best deep threats in this year's class, but he also has one of the best-avoided tackle rates in the class at 23%. For comparison, that is higher than Troy Franklin (18%), Keon Coleman (17%), Xavier Worthy (16%), Rome Odunze (15%), Devontez Walker (13%), Marvin Harrison (10%), Adonai Mitchell (10%), Ricky Pearsall (9%), Roman Wilson (8%), and Jermaine Burton (8%).

Negatives

- Thomas did not perform well against Zone, which is one of the highest correlated and translatable metrics you can find. Thomas' 1.97 YPRR vs Zone is good for 26 out of 35 prospects in this year's class. Interestingly, he performed even worse against Man with a 1.74 YPRR vs man.

- Career 1.95 YPRR, which also ranks 26th in the class.

- PFF grade vs Zone of 63.70, which was the 2nd worst of all prospects in this year's class

- Amongst 29 NFL WRs with a PFR average value of six, Thomas would have the 2nd worst YPRR vs zone and the worst PFF grade vs zone. Thomas has positive metrics to point to in his analytical profile, but he would be in outlier in these two metrics if he were to find success in the NFL.

- While I'm not one to care about drop rate for a prospect, Thomas ranks 4th-worst in drop rate. 

- One of the lowest First Down Per Route Run rates in this year's class, ranking 6th worst. This could be attributed to him having such a high ADOT, but still a concern.

Model Comp(s):

Hit with a similar grade: Tee Higgens (6.17 Grade)

Miss with a similar grade: Alec Pierce (6.12 Grade)

8 - Roman Wilson

(Prospect Grade: 6.15, Tier 4)

Prospect Composite Scores

Production Score: 3.71
Efficiency Score: 6.50
Athletic Score: 8.50
Deep Threat Score: 7.75
YAC Score: 5.30

Positives

- Sufficient athleticism that may be overlooked due to the class he's in. In a class filled with absurdly high-level athletes, Roman Wilson is simply a good athlete. He scored an 8.58 RAS with a great speed grade and great agility grade. He has 4.39 speed, which will attract NFL teams.

- More inside/out versatility than he's been given credit for. In his career, he has approx 60/40 split as a slot receiver, the majority of which came over the last two years. In his 2021 season, Wilson played the majority of snaps outside.

- Excelled as a deep threat. In 2023, 39% of Wilson's receiving yards came on deep yards. He has an impressive 16 yards/rec for his career and 66% of his career receiving yards came on air yards.

- 3rd best QBR when targeted in the class, behind only Brian Thomas Jr. and Troy Franklin.

- 2.33 YPRR for his career, 11th best in the class. Not dominant, but way above any concerning thresholds.

- 3rd best Touchdowns Per Route Run in the draft class, behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Tez Walker. He has the 2nd best touchdown per target, behind Brian Thomas Jr's 4% drop rate, dropping only seven balls on 157 career targets.

- 5th best contested catch rate in the class catching 53% of his career contested targets. He also has a career catch rate of 68%.

Negatives

- Wilson's avoided tackle rate is one of the worst in the class, especially for a slot-type of receiver. Wilson's 8% avoided tackle rate is 4th worst in the class and is the worst for a prospect who played the majority of snaps in the slot.

- Very low production profile, especially for a receiver who played in 40 games over the last 3 years. He's never broken 800 yards in a season and 12 of his 20 career touchdowns came in 2023.

- Concerning breakout age of 22.2 which is in the 13th percentile. For someone with so little college production, Wilson will be 23 at the start of the year.

- While he does have a decent career YPRR, Wilson's YPRR vs Zone is ranked 19th in the class at 2.31 YPRR vs Zone. Not too concerning, but lower than you'd like to see.

- What I believe is one of Wilson's biggest "orange" flags is his career PFF grade vs Zone, which is sub-70 and ranks 26th in the class. 

Model Comp(s):

Hit with a similar grade: Tee Higgens (6.17 Grade)

Miss with a similar grade: Laviska Shenault Jr. (6.25 Grade)

7. Jermaine Burton

(Prospect Grade: 6.29, Tier 4)

Prospect Composite Scores

Production Score: 4.55
Efficiency Score: 6.23
Athletic Score: 9.01
Deep Threat Score: 9.71
YAC Score: 4.07

Positives

- Despite running a slower time than anticipated, Jermaine Burton scored a 9.09 RAS, solidifying himself as a great athlete.

- Probably the best deep threat in the draft. Out of 143 prospects in my draft model, Burton scored the highest deep threat grade of everyone. 77% of Burton's career receiving yards were air yards, 2nd highest in the class. 60% were attributed as deep yards.

- Insane 20.2 ADOT in 2023. Despite having one of the highest ADOTs seen from a prospect, Burton still caught an impressive 67% of his career targets.

- Burton has the 3rd best drop rate in the WR class, dropping only 2% of his career targeted. That's only four drops on 197 career targets, including 0 in 2023.

- Burton has the highest career yards per target of anyone in this year's draft class, including above guys like Nabers, Odunze, and Harrison.

- While Burton's career YPRR is mediocre, he does have an impressive 2.46 YPRR vs Zone, good for 12th in the class.

- Burton had an impressive career QBR when targeted of 125.94, 7th best in the class.

- Despite being somewhat undersized, Burton still had a career contested target rate of 53%. That's better than Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr, Keon Coleman, Adonai Mitchell, and Xavier Legette.

- Burton's prospect grade ranks in the ~76th percentile of overall prospects. 

Negatives

- Mediocre 2.18 career YPRR. Not too concerning, but far from impressive.

- Struggled against Man in college. He had a Career YPRR of only 1.73 vs man and in 2023 he had a PFF grade of 68.5 vs man. 

- Older prospect who will be 23 years old at the start of the season. He also had a late breakout age of 22.2 which is 14th percentile which might be the most concerning data point in his analytical profile.

- Overall production profile is far from impressive. Never broke 800 yards in a season.

- Low avoided tackle rate of only 8% which is 3rd worst in the draft class. Similar to Thomas, this could be attributed to his high ADOT and not having the opportunity to make people miss in the open field. Burton also had only 1 screen catch in 2023 which went for only 2 years, so he's not a YAC threat.
Ranks in the 73rd percentile of overall prospects. 

Model Comp(s)

Hit with a similar grade: DK Metcalf (6.41 Grade)

Miss with a similar grade: Terrace Marshall Jr. (6.30 Grade)

6. Devontez Walker

(Prospect Grade: 6.63, Tier 3)

Prospect Composite Scores

Production Score: 5.10
Efficiency Score: 6.77
Athletic Score: 9.41
Deep Threat Score: 8.81
YAC Score: 4.39

Positives

- Tez Walker is, yet again, another elite athlete. Walker has a 9.91 RAS, which is the third-best score in the class. An impressive feat considering this might be the most athletic position group in NFL Draft history.

- Above-average 2.52 career YPRR, 7th-best in the class.

- More impressive is Walker's exceptional 3.04 YPRR vs Zone which is 4th best in the class, behind Harrison (3.30), Nabers (3.13), and Ladd McConkey (3.05).

- Despite having relatively low production in his collegiate career, Walker was having an impressive year in his short time at UNC. Walker had 699 yards and seven touchdowns in only eight games with Drake Maye at QB.

- 9th best QBR when targeted out of 35 prospects in this year's class.

- One of the highest avoided tackle rates amongst the "deep-threat" prospects in this year's class. Of the prospects whose air yards accounted for 70% or more of their receiving yards, Walker had the best-avoided tackle rate.

- 2nd best deep-threat grade amongst prospects. Walker averaged 7.82 air yards per target, also the 2nd best.

- Caught 14 of 31 contested targets for a contested target rate of 45%.

- The 4th best touchdowns per game of all prospects in this year's class and 2nd best amongst WRs projected in the top 3 rounds (behind MHJ).

- One of the highest PFF grades vs zone in this year's class, 8th best in the draft class. While his overall career PFF grade is relatively low, it was mostly brought down by his grade vs man (63.65).

- Ranks in the 83rd percentile of overall prospects. 73% of the prospects ranked ahead; Walker went on to average at least 9.25 Fantasy PPG. 

Negatives

- One of the oldest receivers in the draft and will be 23 by the time the season starts.

- Walker also has a late breakout age of 21.2, 31st percentile.

- Never broke 1,000 yards in his three collegiate years and his overall production is relatively low.

- Relatively low catch rate of 62%.

- One of the highest drop rates in the class at 6%. Walker had ten drops on 168 career targets.

- One of the lowest PFF Grades vs Man in the class 

Model Comp(s)

Hit with a similar grade: Puka Nacua (6.72 Grade)

Miss with a similar grade: Dyami Brown (6.54)