Every offseason, fantasy managers are faced with difficult decisions in redraft leagues regarding when to select highly drafted rookies. It’s always tempting to choose the first-year draft pick who was specifically selected to fill a hole in their new team’s offense. These rookies always seem to be primed for immediate breakouts, and recency bias can get in the way of viewing all aspects of their offensive environment. In many cases, the hype gets out of control, and their ADPs skyrocket.

However, no rookie has been given quite as much anticipation in fantasy football as the Arizona Cardinals’ newest wide receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr. The fourth-overall pick in this past April’s draft has already been granted the green light by most fantasy managers. Many expect the former Ohio State wideout to follow in his father’s footsteps.

This has been reflected in his skyrocketing ADP, which has risen to the early/middle second round of most redraft fantasy football leagues. Right now, it is sitting around the WR10 slot on most redraft rankings. Even for an elite prospect like Harrison, this price tag is a bit steep for some fantasy managers.

However, for others, a potential selection of Harrison presents the perfect opportunity to steal one of the best wide receiver prospects in recent memory at what could be the lowest price he will ever be at in fantasy football drafts. The decision on where to select him in dynasty startup and rookie drafts is simpler, but his redraft value is more of a complex topic. At the crossroads of talent and opportunity, superstars are formed. Below we're going to dive into if this blue-chip rookie should be trusted at his current price?

Opportunity

For starters, let’s look at the obvious. The Cardinals did not have a strong supporting cast ready for Kyler Murray when he returned in Week 10 from the ACL tear that he sustained in late 2022. 

The wide receiver room consisted of Hollywood Brown, Michael Wilson, Rondale Moore, Greg Dortch, and Zach Pascal. However, Michael Wilson was in his rookie year after being selected in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Hollywood Brown missed time over the last five games of the season due to a heel injury. Greg Dortch only had two targets through the first ten games of the season and only caught more than four passes in four games in 2023. After playing in all 17 games this past season, Rondale Moore surpassed 40 receiving yards in only two contests. 

On the bright side, the tight-end room was a different story. Former Colorado State tight end Trey McBride broke out in his sophomore season after the injury to former teammate Zach Ertz, racking up 825 yards off of 81 receptions on a whopping 106 targets. The 24-year-old became the workhorse of the passing game, seeing a dramatic increase in production after Murray’s return. From weeks 10 through 18, McBride averaged 67.3 receiving yards per game. For reference, the leading tight end in yards per game in 2023 was Travis Kelce, with 65.6. 

It’s not hard to decipher that Marvin Harrison Jr. doesn’t have much obstruction in his pursuit of the top wide receiver role in Arizona. Both Zach Ertz and Rondale Moore have departed from the team this offseason, leaving 67 vacant targets in their wake. The obvious solution is that many of these will end up going to Harrison. He is already the best receiver on the team and has the talent to ascend to the top of the league at his position. 

If we look at the Cardinals’ offense from Weeks 10 through 18, a few trends can be noticed. If we average out the number of rushing attempts through these weeks and compare them to the rest of the league during the entire 2023 season, the Cardinals would be tied with the Lions for 8th in the league in rush attempts per game, with a mark of 29. By observing the weeks during which the Cardinals had Murray against the full seasons of the other 31 NFL teams, it can be understood that with Kyler Murray in the lineup, the Cardinals ran the ball at a very high rate. 

If the same measure is taken with the passing game statistics, Arizona’s average number of pass attempts from Weeks 10-18 would be tied with Green Bay’s full-season average for 20th in the league with 33.5 pass attempts per game. Viewing the offense through a Kyler Murray-led lens, it makes sense that the team would run the ball at an above-average rate.

James Conner had a particularly strong year on the ground, and Murray is a player who can find a lot of his production in the run game. But could this spell trouble for Harrison? The short answer: not directly. Several teams that averaged less than 33.5 pass attempts per game, such as Las Vegas, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Chicago, San Francisco, and Baltimore, had fantasy-relevant receivers on their teams. Also, it is a fair assumption that the Cardinals will pass the ball more in 2024. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride are too talented not to get the ball in their hands on a consistent basis. 

Talent

As mentioned before, Harrison is an elite prospect as a player and excelled throughout his collegiate career. He truly broke out as a college sophomore and continued his dominance through his junior season before declaring for the 2024 NFL Draft. Ohio State has recently been known for producing superstar professional receiver talent, and Harrison is no exception. 

The 6’4” 209 lbs wideout is a supremely masterful route-runner. He already has NFL-level athleticism that he has been able to display throughout his entire career. The way he is able to move fluidly through his breaks, stop on a dime, accelerate down the field, shake defenders with shifty releases, and climb the ladder for impressive catches makes him far more pro-ready than many other receivers. Harrison also has astounding hand-eye coordination and body control, making it very hard for him to stop.

On top of this, he can make tough catches and adjustments that are difficult for even the most athletic at his position. Harrison is phenomenal before, during, and after the catch and is already a very polished player. His new teammates have already commented on his otherworldly abilities during the Cardinals’ minicamp. 

Even though he didn’t participate in the 2024 NFL Combine, there was little doubt that any results that he would’ve produced could’ve affected his draft stock. He was the consensus WR1 on many draft boards and was generally viewed as the best receiver in a loaded draft class. He is in a position and has the talent to produce immediately.

Taking Over the Family Business

It’s no secret that even with back-to-back 1200+ yard seasons at THE Ohio State University, the first thing that many avid sports fans notice about Harrison Jr. is his name. After all, Marvin Harrison Sr. created big shoes that his son now has the chance to fill. The Hall-of-Famer is the best receiver in the history of the Indianapolis Colts organization.

Through thirteen seasons, Harrison Sr. logged 1102 receptions, 14,580 receiving yards, 128 receiving touchdowns, eight Pro Bowl invites, three First-Team All-Pro selections, and a Super Bowl Championship victory. He is viewed as an all-time great, as he should be. 

This specific family tie may drive Marvin Harrison Jr. into the NFL with some predisposed opinions. Fantasy managers must strive not to view him nor determine his ceiling as a player through the lens of anything that his father was able to accomplish.

That being said, there is no doubt that Marvin Harrison Jr. likely picked up some pointers from his father regarding how to play the receiver position. Despite the looming microscope that will no doubt follow him throughout his career, Marvin Harrison Jr. must be judged as his own player. 

Conclusion

Firstly, it must be taken into consideration that we have multiple recent examples of rookie wide receivers absolutely exploding in fantasy value. Justin Jefferson recorded 1400 receiving yards and seven touchdowns during his rookie season in 2020.

The next year, Ja’Marr Chase logged 1455 yards and a ridiculous 13 touchdowns during his 2021 rookie season. During the same season, Jaylen Waddle broke out for 1,015 receiving yards and six touchdowns. In 2022, both Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave had over 1,000 receiving yards.

In 2023, Rams rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua broke the rookie receiving yards record with 1486 while also scoring six receiving touchdowns during an unbelievable first season. 

The point to be made here is that rookie wide receivers can be huge fantasy assets. Every draft class since 2019 has had a rookie wide receiver go for over 1,000 receiving yards. This active trend began with A.J. Brown and has continued with our most recent example, Puka Nacua. Taking this into consideration, it is fair to assume that multiple receivers could do the same in 2024’s stacked offensive draft class. 

ESPN’s staff of fantasy experts has Marvin Harrison Jr. ranked as the WR13 going into fantasy drafts. Some notable names that he is ranked above include Drake London, DK Metcalf, Nico Collins, Brandon Aiyuk, and DJ Moore. At his current price tag, the risk is outweighed by the reward for Harrison.

Taking measured risks can help your fantasy team soar to new heights, and although Harrison’s ADP is far greater than past rookie wide receivers, he is in the perfect position to succeed. If you can get him at or below his current value, he will be a great investment for your fantasy team in 2024.