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Some of you might look at the headline for this article and think it's just for shock value or clickbait, but it's not. I wholeheartedly believe this, and I'll explain why. I'll be referencing a very important metric that will make my case, and that's WoRP (Wins over Replacement Players).
This is an extremely valuable tool in helping to make all sorts of decisions when it comes to your team, including who to target in startup drafts, overall roster construction, trades, waiver wire pickups, and more. I personally adhere to this advice in my own startup drafts and team-building decisions.
For the purposes of this article, I will analyze data of 12 team Superflex dynasty leagues using WoRP and prove to you why you shouldn't draft Sam LaPorta at ADP or any tight end within the first ten rounds of startup. Not only that, but I believe tight ends, in general, don't matter, not even in tight-end premium leagues!
What is WORP?
If you're not familiar with the metric, Wins over Replacement Players or WoRP, which I will refer to as going forward, measures the value of any given player in actual fantasy team wins compared to the next replacement-level player (a player outside the ideal starter range for that particular league). This metric gives you the most tangible valuation of a player's worth and impact on team wins.
You can find such tools online on various sites, and they will give you an evaluation based on your specific league scoring settings. In general, top quarterbacks usually have the highest WoRP in Superflex leagues. While wide receivers give you the best WoRP as a position group and as you go deeper into the player pool.
Specific league settings can make a difference, like whether it's 4 points per touchdown thrown or 6 points for quarterbacks, or if it's a tiered PPR format where wide receivers only get a half point versus running backs who will get a full point per reception.
Sometimes, running backs get extra points per carry or for a first down. These scoring nuances can change the WoRP and determine what positions are most valuable. One thing holds true: even in a full point extra of tight end premium, tight ends don't matter!
I'm gonna reference a WoRP graph for one of my leagues from the 2023 season. It's a 12-team PPR dynasty, Superflex, best ball, start 11, 28-man roster, with a full extra PPR for tight ends. When I first looked at the graph, I noticed that the quarterback line remained highest until about QB17. From that point, the wide receiver line stays way above the other positions. And at TE6, the tight end line drops well below the other positions despite having a full PPR advantage.
WORP Breakdown
Let's start making some direct player comparisons. I'll start by comparing the top players at each position for reference. The number one overall player in this format is the number one running back, Christian McCaffrey, with a 2.28 WoRP. The next best overall player was top quarterback Josh Allen, with a 2.16 WoRP. Followed by the top wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb, at 2.1 WoRP. Then, fairly below them, the top tight end, TJ Hockenson, at 1.75.
When you start to familiarize yourself with the WoRP graph, you'll see that a .25 difference in WoRP is a pretty precipitous drop. It's very noticeable when looking at the graph. That amount can sometimes be the difference between an elite player and a fringe starter as you get further along the chart.
In this league, there are only four players with above 2.0 WoRP, the players I already mentioned above (McCafferey, Allen, Lamb) and Tyreek Hill with 2.08. Hovering at just under 2.0, we also have Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Lamar Jackson. This tier of players, just around 2.0 WoRP and above, are the biggest difference makers and are called League Breakers.
They are most often correlated with playoff teams and, most likely, on championship teams. So already, we see the number one tight end in WoRP doesn't even come close to measuring up to the top players at the other positions that are part of that League Breaker tier.
Sam LaPorta
Now, let's talk specifically about Sam LaPorta. He is actually ranked as tight end number 4 in WoRP with 1.52, so already, based on this important metric, he isn't giving you a top positional advantage. In comparison, the number 4 quarterback last season, Lamar Jackson, has a 1.82 WoRP, and the number 4 wide receiver Keenan Allen a 1.58.
The number 4 running back, however, did fall short of LaPorta with a 1.23 WoRP. All of these players are considered part of the Elite tier. They are confident weekly starters who can have the upside of the League Breaker and are typically the backbone of solid contending teams.
When I step back and look at the WoRP graph as a whole, there's a huge drop off at the tight end position right after TE5, which is David Njoku, with a 1.41 WoRP. It falls off a cliff at that point for tight ends, but the graph holds relatively steady for both quarterbacks and wide receivers. Only the top 8 tight ends have a WoRP 1 or over, while the top 17 quarterbacks and top 16 wide receivers achieve that.
From there, quarterbacks start to take a fall, too, but the wide receivers keep steady all the way down to WR35, which is Courtland Sutton with a .66 WoRP. This is the end of the Starter tier, players who are solid starters without league-breaking upside but can be great flex options on champion-caliber teams. So, let's compare it. At QB22, we get to .66 WoRP versus WR35.
You see how deep you can go at the wide receiver position, and to a lesser extent at quarterback, to impact actual wins. Meanwhile, every tight end outside the top 13 has a WoRP below 0.66. So what does this all mean?
Well, when you look at player production and how that translates to actual wins for our dynasty fantasy team, then you factor in the cost of a player in a startup draft or at current trade value, reaching for Sam LaPorta doesn't make sense.
It won't lead to more wins relative to what you can get at similar value at other positions. That's because we have to start three wide receivers in most leagues and then want to use them in flex spots as well, wide receivers overall are the most valuable position, and the WoRP graph confirms that. However, since we're talking about Superflex, which is the most popular format right now, quarterbacks are just as important as wide receivers because of position scarcity despite only being able to start two.
The WoRP graph definitely agrees with that as well, especially on the top end. And even though quarterbacks don't hold value going as deep as wide receivers, there aren't as many to go around, so even the QB20 and beyond can make a difference as a QB2 or QB3 on your team and retain value.
Conversely, most leagues only start one tight end, so unless that tight end is making a historical difference at that position, like Travis Kelce in 2020 and 2022, with a 2.52 and 2.49 WoRP, respectively, those two years, investing at the top of that position is a foolish endeavor. Kelce produced over 1400 yards and 11 touchdowns, and over 1300 yards and 12 touchdowns in those historical seasons, which allowed him to have a huge gap in WoRP compared to even the next best tight ends those seasons, Darren Waller with 2.17, Mark Andrews with 1.07 in 2020, TJ Hockenson with 1.52 and Mark Andrews with 1.28 in 2022.
Those historical types of seasons from a tight end won't happen again soon, and neither will we see a significant enough gap between TE1 and those below to make the selection of a top tight end at the beginning of drafts worthwhile. We're in an era where the top 6 or 7 tight ends will have about the same level of production, with any one of them capable of being the TE1.
Despite signing an extension at age 34, Travis Kelce's playing time and snap count have been reduced enough in recent seasons as the Kansas City Chiefs try to preserve him for their playoff runs, and he will never replicate his historic numbers. No other tight end has the combination of talent and situation to achieve those historic type numbers either, not even Sam LaPorta.
Yes, Sam LaPorta's rookie season was historic, which had him finish at or near TE1 in most league formats, but he only put up 889 yards yet caught ten touchdowns. No other tight end had more than six touchdown catches last year, so it's safe to say, especially with the plethora of weapons the Detroit Lions have to spread the ball around to, that LaPorta will have a regression in touchdowns while unlikely to have a huge increase in receiving yards. That means his WoRP of 1.52 last season, which was Elite but not historic, is likely to go down.
He's just not going to put up 1,300 or 1,400 yards receiving like Kelce during his two historic seasons. Not with the rate at which the Lions run the ball and then spread the ball around when they throw it. Therefore, his WoRP will never be in the League Breaker tier.
Now factor in cost. According to current ADP of Sleeper Superflex startup drafts, LaPorta is being drafted at the 3.01. This means you'd have to pass up on quarterbacks like Dak Prescott (1.84 WoRP), Brock Purdy (1.55 WoRP), Trevor Lawrence (1.12 WoRP), and Jayden Daniels or wide receivers like Tyreek Hill (2.09 WoRP), Puka Nacua (1.39 WoRP), AJ Brown (1.37 WoRP) and Malik Nabers, all players being drafted in that range. That's the cost.
I first began implementing this strategy last year in a dynasty league that starts two tight ends with a .5 premium at that position. In the startup draft, I waited until the 11th round to draft my first tight end, rookie Luke Musgrave, then drafted my next tight end, Zach Ertz, in the 16th round. I won the league while also using Logan Thomas and Tanner Hudson as tight ends I picked up off the waiver wire during the season!
Last week, I drafted in another dynasty startup for a league that starts two tight ends and this time waited until the 14th round to draft my first tight end, Hunter Henry, stocking up on wide receivers, quarterbacks and to a lesser degree, even running backs along the way. With my first four picks I snagged Cee Dee Lamb, Ja'Marr Chase, Jahmyr Gibbs & Dak Prescott.
Stocking your team with quarterbacks and wide receivers instead of tight ends will bring your team more wins and also give your team more trade value at the most important positions, which will only help you win more in the future. If you already have Sam LaPorta, you can take his currently enormous trade value per KeepTradeCut and deal him straight up for quarterbacks Jordan Love (1.69 WoRP) or Justin Herbert (1.25 WoRP), wide receivers Puka Nacua (1.39 WoRP) or AJ Brown (1.37 WoRP).
You could even get a running back like Christian McCaffery (2.28 WoRP), Breece Hall (1.23 WoRP), or Jahmyr Gibbs (1.09 WoRP). All of these guys are already either in the Elite or League Breaker tiers, and those in the Elite tier have the potential ceiling to be a League Breaker, unlike LaPorta.
I've seen it firsthand in too many dynasty start-ups; people are overvaluing tight ends, particularly in any tight-end premium leagues, and drafting them too early and too often. FantasyCalc’s Trade Analyzer says his price right now is at least a future first round pick.
In the process, they're leaving huge names at other, more valuable positions on the board. That's where you can capitalize and scoop up all that amazing long-term value…value that translates to wins according to the WoRP.
