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Continuing my “Cleaning Up Messy Position Groups” series, we’ll be looking at possibly the messiest position group, the Green Bay Packers’ Receivers. Let me know how you think this position group will pan out, and reach out to me at @backseatscout on Twitter/X or u/backseatscout on Reddit if there are any position groups you want to tackle next. Also, this primarily looks at the players in 1QB, redraft, PPR, not best ball formats. I’ll also be referencing my previous article on the Houston Texans receivers, which you can find with this link below:

How to Handle the Houston Texans Receivers in 2024 Fantasy Football

After having minimal receiver help in the final days of the Aaron Rodgers era, the Green Bay Packers now have a surplus of young talent at receiver and tight end. There was a bit of rotation of producers last year that now makes it difficult to project which of their players is the most trustworthy for the 2024 season. This was definitely one of the hardest position groups for me to take a look at but I feel I’m up to it as a Packers fan. So, let’s get into it!

Recent History of Having Three Productive Wide Receivers on the Same Team

Those who have read my Houston Texans receiver article can probably skip past this section. It’s very similar to the similar section in that article, and my statements with Jordan Love are similar to my comments on CJ Stroud. That being said, I’ll, of course, highlight some differences between Love and Stroud. 

As a summary of the history of productive three wide receivers on one team, history isn’t great. For the past five years, I was only able to find four instances with a number of these receivers often finishing no better than as a WR2. So, I think that context is important to keep in mind when setting our expectations on any of these receivers.

In my Houston Texans article, I mentioned how young quarterbacks entering their second year often don’t see an increase in pass attempts and more often either have a similar number of attempts or see a drop in attempts. Jordan Love is a bit of a different case since he wasn’t a rookie last year, even though it was his first year as a starter.

That changes our sample a bit and makes it a bit harder to confirm what to expect of him in their second full year as a starter. To provide a slightly larger sample, I used quarterbacks that either sat at least their entire rookie year, played very minimally (3 games or less), or missed nearly all of their rookie year due to injury (played three games or less).

Going back fifteen years, that made our sample size includes Aaron Rodgers, Chad Henne, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, Colin Kaepernick, Brian Hoyer, Kirk Cousins, Tyrod Taylor, Trevor Siemian, Jimmy Garoppolo, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts.

Now, let’s address the elephant in the room: most of these quarterbacks aren’t very good, and a number of them weren’t drafted with the expectation to become starters. I’ll still be looking at them as a whole but will also focus on the ones that had serious draft capital to be more aligned with Jordan Love’s situation.

Of the quarterbacks above, Aaron Rodgers, Chad Henne, Matt Cassel, Colin Kaepernick, and Jimmy Garoppolo (somewhat of a strange case as I used his third season and his fifth season with the San Francisco 49ers for this as he missed a lot of time with injury) all had about the same passing attempts/game in their second year as a full-time starter compared to their first year. The only quarterbacks that saw a decrease were Ryan Fitzpatrick (though his case was strange, bouncing between teams before settling in Buffalo for a stint as the starter), Trevor Siemian, and Patrick Mahomes.

 However, there was a higher rate of quarterbacks that saw an increase in their passing attempts/game in their second year as a starter compared to rookies going into their second year. Brian Hoyer went from 31.3 to 33.5 attempts/game (though he did make the change from the Cleveland Browns to the Houston Texans), Kirk Cousins went from 33.9 to 37.9 attempts/game, Tyrod Taylor went from 27.1 to 29.1 attempts/game, and Jalen Hurts went from 28.8 to 30.7 attempts/game.

If we trim the list a bit more with quarterbacks that were taken with fair draft capital and the plan to develop behind the starter, that would narrow our list to Aaron Rodgers, Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick, Jimmy Garoppolo, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts. So, that makes the outlook a bit less favorable for Jordan Love to see an increase in passing attempts, with only Jalen Hurts seeing an increase. 

However, we can also likely assume that Love shouldn’t see much, if any, decrease in attempts, with Mahomes being the only one of these quarterbacks who saw a decrease in pass attempts. So, I think there is a lot of optimism of a similar passing rate at worst for Jordan Love between these trends and could see an increase with the Packers finishing 15th in the NFL in pass attempts for 2023 and Love seeing an increase in pass attempts in the second half of the season going from 32.5 attempts/game in the first eight weeks of the season to 34.9 attempts/game in the final eight weeks of the regular season.

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The Green Bay Packers Personnel

For the Green Bay Packers receivers, we’ll be focusing on Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks. However, we can’t ignore their budding tight end room with Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. Also, I think it’s important to take a look at how the change from Aaron Jones to Josh Jacobs may change the offense. 

Let’s start by taking a look at where each of the receivers primarily aligned in 2023. Christian Watson played most of his snaps from the outside (60.3%), Jayden Reed played most of his offensive snaps from the slot (71.6%), Romeo Doubs played most of his snaps outside (85.3%), and Dontayvion Wicks played most of his snaps from outside (64.3%).

Teams’ tendencies can always change, but in 2023, the Green Bay Packers played out of 11 personnel (three wide receivers and one tight end) on 63.1% of plays and 12 personnel (two wide receivers and two tight ends) on 31.6% of plays. Despite a vastly improved tight end room, the Packers actually saw an increase in 11 personnel compared to 2022, running out of 11 personnel on 57.3% of snaps in 2022.

While the Green Bay Packers could continue this trend and increase the frequency of their 11 personnel, I don’t think it’s out of the question that it could stay similar with both Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft developing and entering their second year. Also, the addition of Josh Jacobs could alter their approach to running the ball.

A lot likely comes down to the offensive scheme, but Jacobs actually had a higher rate of runs outside the tackles than Aaron Jones in 2023 despite having more of a build akin to an inside runner. If the Packers plan to use Jacobs this way as well, it would be easy to see them have an additional tight end in the formation to help seal the edge. 

Another part that could be more reflective of offensive schemes is how often the back is receiving opportunities. In 2023, Aaron Jones saw a much higher rate of going out for routes on passes than Josh Jacobs with Jones going out on routes on 85.6% of pass plays and Jacobs on 72.3%. Jones also received a target on 12% of his routes while Jacobs only received a target on 9%. 

So, there is a very fair chance that Josh Jacobs and the running backs will have less of a role in the passing game, which could help erase some of the uptick in targets that Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft get. There is still definitely the concern that the Packers could use 12 personnel more frequently. However, based on past tendencies and the state of the roster, it feels like they could likely stay right around where they finished last year. So, let’s take a look at which three receivers likely have the highest chance of playing in these formations.

Jayden Reed

Jayden Reed had a nice rookie year, finishing as the WR26 in PPR in points/game and finishing with the third highest points/game by a rookie receiver in 2023 behind Puka Nacua (duh) and Tank Dell. Reed was also on a tear to end the year and was the WR9 from weeks 10 through 17 last year. With rookie receivers typically making a second-year jump, it’s easy to envision Reed continuing to take a step forward next year.

There are two things that really help keep Jayden Reed’s 2024 outlook looking as bright as it does. They are his clear, undisputed role as the slot receiver and his high target percentage from 2023. As I mentioned before, Reed played slightly over 70% of his snaps from the slot, with Christian Watson being the next closest at about 40%. So, with little to no competition at slot, it gives Reed the leg up to stay on the field for the majority of snaps. 

Despite being a rookie, Jayden Reed also led the Green Bay Packers in receptions and had the highest target % of any of their regular receivers, receiving a target on 16% of his routes. Reed showed an instant connection with Jordan Love and showed a lot of promise, finding openings against zone and winning against man coverage as a rookie.

With Reed likely improving in year two and having a clear role on the team, Reed likely is one of the safest options for the Packers’ receivers if the Packers continue to go heavy with 11 personnel. If they have more of a shift to 12 personnel, Reed could be taken off the field or will need to prove he can consistently win outside to stay on the field.

Christian Watson

Now getting to the receivers, let’s start with Christian Watson. Watson had a hot streak in 2022 where he had 362 total yards and eight touchdowns in four games. His 2023 season was all over the place due to a recurring hamstring injury but he was great when healthy putting up 202 total yards and four touchdowns in his final three healthy games of the regular season.

I completely understand the pessimism around Christian Watson, and a lot of hope requires projection, but when he is healthy, he acts as one of the top and most productive receivers for the Green Bay Packers. Last year, Watson was tied with Romeo Doubs for the highest percentage of snaps played when available.

 As you can tell from the stat lines I provided, he also has a nose for the end zone and provides some great scoring upside. With his unmatched playmaking ability, production and trust he has from the coaching staff, Watson feels like a lock as a starter on the outside regardless of most people’s view of him and his injury history. 

Dontayvion Wicks & Romeo Doubs

So, we have Jayden Reed taking the slot role and Christian Watson likely taking one of the outside spots. If we go with the assumption of the Green Bay Packers going heavy with 11 personnel, that leaves one outside receiver spot. With only Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs remaining, we likely have a battle between them for playing time.

In terms of snap % from 2023, Romeo Doubs had a clear lead over Dontayvion Wicks, with Doubs playing on 77% of possible snaps compared to Wicks’ 47%. Doubs also played more snaps than Wicks in 15 out of 17 games they played together, if we include the playoffs. Doubs led all Green Bay Packers receivers in snaps and targets, but Wicks was actually more involved when both were out running routes, with Wicks getting targeted on 13% of his snaps compared to Doubs with 11%. So, while Doubs was getting more snaps, Wicks was more efficient from a receiving perspective.

Now, it’s hard to take snaps as an end-all-be-all when one of the players is a fifth-round rookie and had to work his way onto the starting roster and ultimately into the starting offense. Just as there is an argument for Jayden Reed, there is a very real chance that Dontayvion Wicks will take the next step and usurp Romeo Doubs for the starting spot. However, second-year progression isn’t always a given and may not be for Wicks.

For anyone who was confused about how Dontayvion Wicks fell to the fifth round, I recommend watching his final year at Virginia. After having a fantastic 2021 season, Wicks had a horrendous 2022 season that was filled with drops (had a ridiculous 23.1% drop rate per target), minimal separation, and missed the final two games due to injury. 

While Wicks was awesome last year, there is a bit of fear in me that he could regress to his 2022 self. 2024 could be the year where he proves if his 2021 and 2023 performances are more indicative of the player he is, or he could regress to his 2022 form and create a lot of concern about what to expect from him.

Also, I don’t think we can discount what Romeo Doubs did in the playoffs last year. With Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks providing little on offense, Doubs stepped up with ten receptions, 234 yards, and a touchdown in their two playoff games. Just as there is a very fair argument that Wicks could progress, I don’t think the possibility of Doubs continuing this momentum from the playoffs should be downplayed. Doubs already showed that he had the snap lead on Wicks throughout the season, so it will take Wicks to have continued efficiency in big games to earn snaps over Doubs.

Conclusion

Alright, that was probably a lot of information. However, I wanted to give a lot of the numbers so everyone can come to their own conclusions as well. Based on what I’ve seen as a Green Bay Packers fan and after looking at the numbers, I think the two “safest” options are Jayden Reed and Christian Watson.

Jayden Reed already started to look like the top receiver for the team last year as a rookie and looks poised to take a step forward next year with a clear role as the slot receiver. Reed being pushed off the field in 22 personnel looks could be a bit frustrating if this happens but I think his talent will help keep him on the field more times than not. 

The biggest issue for Reed is the fact that he is on most if not all, people’s radars as the top receiver for the Green Bay Packers, which may make it hard to get him at a discount. That being said, if he carries the momentum from the end of the year, he has the makings of a likely WR2 that can be taken later in redrafts. 

Christian Watson definitely has his risks, but his production is undeniable when he’s out on the field, and the team clearly trusts him when he’s healthy. I think Watson could still be a bit risky in regular redraft, but he provides some nice upside if you are willing to take on that risk. That being said, I think he is an even better option for best ball and could have some really explosive weeks to help your team to some wins.

Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs are wild cards but could provide the best value out of the receivers depending on how their playing time shakes out. If you want to bet on Wicks taking a second-year jump, I think he’s a great option. If you want to bet on Doubs continuing to be the most-played receiver and carry his playoff momentum, I can’t argue that.

Doubs’ ADP has been dropping, and Wicks has been increasing, but I think Doubs may actually be the safer player based on the playoffs and his high playing time. There is always the world where they cancel each other out, but if one gains a lot of ground on the other, they could be a big steal late in drafts.