The top of the running back position is a mess for fantasy football. In 2023, of the top 12 drafted running backs by Sleeper average draft position (ADP) in half PRR leagues, only two met or exceeded their draft price, while four finished outside the top 24. Many fantasy managers found success drafting running backs in the middle portion of drafts such as James Conner (RB23 in ADP), Alvin Kamara (RB25), Rachaad White (RB28), Isiah Pacheco (RB29), and James Cook (RB30).
Those five running backs were going between rounds 6 and 8 in 12-team leagues and outperformed their positional ADP by more than 13 spots on average last year. With the prevalence of Zero-RB and Hero-RB strategies, it’s as important as ever to take a deep look into the middle rounds of fantasy drafts this year and see where you can get value on the running back position.
In this series, I’ll identify the five running backs primed to outperform their ADP in rounds 6 to 8 of fantasy drafts and help catapult your team to a coveted fantasy championship. In this edition of the 2024 Mid-Round RB Values series, I’ll highlight Pittsburgh Steelers Running Back Najee Harris, currently drafted as the RB23 on Sleeper after a career-low finish of RB20 last season. Below, I’ll explain why a new quarterback and offensive coordinator will have Najee Harris challenging for top-12 RB fantasy production this season.
A New Offensive Coordinator
To understand the new offensive system that Harris will be playing in this season, we’ll take a quick look at the history of one of fantasy football’s most polarizing coaches. Arthur Smith.
Smith, the new offensive coordinator for the Steelers, has become infamous in the fantasy football community for his perceived misuse of talented offensive players during his time as head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, such as Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson. Smith even actively antagonized fantasy managers following the opening week of the 2023 season. When asked about a poor showing by WR Drake London, Smith responded: “Let the fantasy guys worry about that.”
After this blatant antagonization of the fantasy community and each of the top three drafted Falcons all failing to meet their ADP last year, it’s hard not to blame fantasy managers for drafting Harris below his lowest-ever fantasy finish. He must be in for a bad season, given Smith’s arrival, right? Well, I’ll show you why that’s not true.
Although many think of Smith as the failed head coach for the Atlanta Falcons these past three years, he was also the offensive coordinator behind Derrick Henry’s breakout season with the Tennessee Titans. In 2019, Smith’s first year as the offensive coordinator for the Titans, Henry went from a timeshare running back who had 215 carries on the season to a bonafide workhorse running back with 303 carries in 15 games. That season, the Titans posted the 3rd most rushing yards in the league.
The next season, the Titans offense, again led by Smith, improved to the 2nd best-rushing team on the back of a monster 378 carries and over the 2000-yard season from Henry. Those two seasons of Henry’s career (RB4 and RB2) still stand as the two best fantasy finishes of his career.
Smith’s success in Tennessee earned him the head coaching job in Atlanta where he transformed their rushing attack from 31stin yards in his first season to the 3rd ranked in his 2ndyear with 5th round rookie Tyler Allgeier leading the Falcons’ running back room.
This brings us to the curious case of Bijan Robinson. Drafted 8th overall in the 2023 NFL draft and touted by many as a generational running back prospect coming out of Texas, there were high expectations for Robinson right away entering a team that was already a rushing powerhouse despite lacking a star running back.
While Robinson had a good fantasy season, finishing as the RB9, he didn’t meet his fantasy ADP of RB3. While his efficiency metrics were generally quite good, his volume paled in comparison to other workhorse running backs across the league. He finished 21st in total carries at the RB position, while Allgeier managed to hold onto a large share of the backfield touches.
So why didn’t Smith give the volume he did to Derrick Henry to his 8th overall generational talent? Run style. While Robinson was a generationally talented prospect coming into the league, he didn’t have nearly the same skillset as Smith’s former start Running Back Derrick Henry. Robinson’s game is more elusive and suited to outside runs, while Henry’s was based on power and downhill runs between the tackles. Where Robinson jukes defenders who can’t seem to touch him, Henry invites contact and runs over opposing defenders.
While Allgeier profiles somewhere between the two stylistically, he was tasked with the type of between-the-tackles runs that Smith seems to adore. Despite Robinson out-carrying Allgeier 214-186 on the season, Allgeier received 49% more carries than Robinson between the tackles.
While there is no real comparison to Derrick Henry’s running style at 6’3” and 247lbs, it’s certainly true that Najee Harris, at 6’1 and 232lbs, is much closer to Henry stylistically than either Robinson or Allgeier. Allgeier managed 3.8 yards per carry on him between-the-tackles runs in 2023; Harris, however, on twice as many between-the-tackles rush attempts as Allgeier, he averaged 4.3 yards per carry.
Fellow Steelers Running Back Jaylen Warren, on the other hand, profiles as a less talented Bijan Robinson – an elusive RB that thrives on the outside in open space. While a 2024 Steelers rushing attack will certainly utilize Warren, he won’t replace Harris’ role at the forefront of a Smith downhill rushing attack.
Harris isn’t as skilled as Henry but he offers Smith the closest match stylistically to Henry that he’s had since leaving the Titans. It was very apparent in Atlanta that despite Robinson being the better running back, Smith wanted someone who could take on the load of running between the tackles and wearing down a defense. Harris’ 278 carry per season average shows he can handle that load.
A New Quarterback
The Steelers finished last season at 10-7, making the playoffs as a wild-card team despite ranking 25th in the league in passing yards. They were kept afloat by a 13th-ranked rushing offense and a stellar defensive unit that allowed the 6th least points in the NFL. The defense should continue to be productive after the only losses to the unit were Safety Keanu Neal and Cornerback Patrick Peterson, who had poor PFF coverage scores of 56.4 and 59.8, respectively.
The Steelers brought in Cornerback Donte Jackson to help bolster the secondary. Jackson posted a PFF coverage grade of 66.6 in 2023. The Steelers also added 2023 All-Pro Linebacker Patrick Queen. The continuity in this elite defensive unit will help Pittsburgh maintain leads, allowing them to continue running the ball for four quarters.
While the defensive side of the ball for Pittsburgh has been great, the same can’t be said for the offensive side. Last year’s starting Quarterback for the Steelers, Kenny Pickett, ranked among the bottom of the league in virtually all passing statistics in 2023. The Steelers made sure to address the quarterback position by bringing in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. The coaching staff stated early on that Russell Wilson is the clear leader to start.
So, how does Russell Wilson’s 2023 season stack up to Pickett’s? While Pickett ranked dead last in the NFL among qualified passers in touchdown percentage in 2023, Wilson posted the third-highest mark in the league. Wilson ranked 13th in the league in completion percentage among quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks, while Pickett ranked 32nd of 39.
While completion percentage can be skewed by the type of throws a quarterback makes – for example, a quarterback dumping off to the running back is likely to be completed more often than big 20+ yard throws down – Wilson had a higher average depth of target than Pickett on the season in addition to his significantly higher completion percentage.
By almost every metric imaginable, Russell Wilson will be a substantial upgrade over Kenny Pickett in the most important position in sports. Some may wonder if improved quarterback play will lead to a decline in rushing volume for Harris and the Steelers in 2024; however, this is still an offense led by Arthur Smith, whose teams have ranked in the top 3 in rushing attempts in four out of five seasons that he’s been the play caller. The identity of this team will be run-first and run often.
The reason that this improvement at the quarterback position matters for Najee Harris’ fantasy output is primarily the touchdown upside. In 2023, 76% of offensive touchdowns scored came when the team was in the red zone. The 2023 Steelers had the 4th fewest red zone plays and touchdowns. The other four teams in the bottom five of both stats were the New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, New York Jets, and New York Giants. Those teams featured some of the worst quarterback play in the league, with each finishing in the bottom 8 in passing yards and passing touchdowns.
Russell Wilson’s Broncos, however, finished 10th in the league in red zone plays despite the team ranking 21st in rushing yards per attempt. Five of Harris’ eight touchdowns on the season came within the 5-yard line, and he scored on those opportunities at an above-league-average rate. An increase in scoring opportunities due to improved quarterback play should help Harris build on that 8-touchdown total in 2024.
In the 5 full games after Pickett was replaced by Quarterbacks Mason Rudolph and Mitchell Trubisky, Harris scored 13.5 fantasy points a game, which would have set him on a season-long pace of RB9. Rudolph and Trubisky were certainly an improvement over Pickett, but aren’t as productive as Russell Wilson, who should further increase the offensive production of the team heading into 2024.
Verdict
Najee Harris’ star has begun to wane after posting relatively low yard per carry metrics in his three seasons in the league. Now the emergence of change of pace back Jaylen Warren and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith have the fantasy community projecting the worst fantasy finish of Harris’ career with him currently being drafted as the RB23 on Sleeper. This is simply a poor evaluation of Harris’ situation and his outlook for 2024.
Harris’ counting stats are skewed by a heavy diet of rushing attempts between the tackles, which often result in fewer yards than the outside runs in space. In 2023, Harris ran between the tackles on 55.9% of rushing attempts, compared to Warren, who only ran between the tackles on 39.5% of his attempts. Looking further into his advanced statistics shows an even brighter picture.
Of the 35 RBs with 150+ rushing attempts in 2023, Harris ranked 7th in rush percentage over expected. That’s a measure, tracked by the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, that shows the percentage of rushing attempts on which a player gains more yards than expected given the situation.
Harris also ranked 5th among all RBs in the league in yards after contact, a stat that Derrick Henry led the league in both years Arthur Smith was his offensive coordinator, showing Smith’s proclivity for that type of runner.
And speaking of Arthur Smith, the negative effect that his hiring has had on Harris’ fantasy outlook is entirely misplaced. Fantasy managers seem to be worried about the split backfield that ensued in Atlanta last season, which is occurring in Pittsburgh now, but the backfield was already split this past season in Pittsburgh, with Harris getting 254 carries to Warren's 149.
Smith’s rushing offenses have been most successful when featuring a big, between-the-tackles runner that can wear down a defense. That was Derrick Henry during Smith’s time as the offensive coordinator in Tennessee, and he tried to use Tyler Allgeier in that way in Atlanta.
Smith didn’t under-utilize Robinson because he prefers a split backfield (Henry averaged 340 carries a season with Smith calling plays for the Titans), it was because he likes to have a big, strong running back that can power the ball between the tackles to wear down the defense. That’s not Bijan Robinson. That is Najee Harris.
Lastly, this Pittsburgh offense is receiving a significant upgrade at quarterback. While Kenny Pickett ranked near the bottom of the league in virtually every passing statistic, new starting Quarterback Russell Wilson showed he still has some gas left in the tank. Wilson may not be a top quarterback in the league like he once was, but he’s a huge improvement over Pickett.
Wilson had the 3rd highest TD% in the league and 13th highest completion percentage this past season. Pickett’s poor play led the team to rank in the bottom four in the league in both red zone plays and red zone TDs, significantly capping Harris’ scoring upside.
