The top of the running back position is a mess for fantasy football. In 2023, of the top 12 drafted running backs by Sleeper average draft position (ADP) in half PRR leagues, only two met or exceeded their draft price, while four finished outside the top 24. Many fantasy managers found success drafting running backs in the middle portion of drafts such as James Conner (RB23 in ADP), Alvin Kamara (RB25), Rachaad White (RB28), Isiah Pacheco (RB29), and James Cook (RB30).
Those five running backs were going between rounds 6 and 8 in 12-team leagues and outperformed their positional ADP by more than 13 spots on average last year. With the prevalence of Zero-RB and Hero-RB strategies, it’s as important as ever to take a deep look into the middle rounds of fantasy drafts this year and see where you can get value on the running back position.
In this series, I’ll identify the five running backs primed to outperform their ADP rounds 6-8 of fantasy drafts and help catapult your team to a coveted fantasy championship.
In this edition of the 2024 Mid-Round RB Values series, I’ll highlight Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson, currently drafted as the RB22 on Sleeper in the 6th round. Below, I’ll explain how a new offense and a fresh season will have Rhamondre Stevenson finish as a top-15 running back this season.
An Improved Situation
2024 will be the New England Patriots’ first season without Bill Belichick since the turn of the millennium. The Patriots chose to hire internally, choosing Jerod Mayo to lead the team in their rebuild. While Mayo will organize the defensive side of the ball, he needs to choose an offensive coordinator who can call plays and design the offense. For that role, he chose former Browns offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt.
Van Pelt spent four seasons as the Cleveland Browns offensive coordinator, and the Browns finished in the top 10 in rushing attempts in each of those seasons. They also finished in the top 5 in three out of four of those seasons. While Van Pelt wasn’t the play-caller in his time in Cleveland, it’s clear that the game plans he helped design and implement each week had a focus on running the ball.
Despite finishing tied for the 2nd worst record in the league last season, the Patriots finished with a reliable defense, ranking 15thin points allowed and featuring the 5th lowest yards per play against them. They did that despite losing their four-time Pro Bowl defensive end, Matt Judon, only four games into the season.
While we don’t often care about defenses in fantasy football, a strong defense can help a team maintain a strong running game. When you’re down two scores in the second half, it’s hard to maintain a run-first approach, knowing your offense needs to score and do so quickly. The Patriots' defense should be good enough to prevent the team from regularly falling behind by multiple scores, even if the team projects to lose a significant number of games.
Another factor that helps running backs score fantasy points is being a part of a decent offense that can move the chains and doesn’t turn over the ball. While no one is projecting the Patriots to lead the league in scoring this season, new Quarterbacks Jacoby Brissett and Drake Mayeshould provide an upgrade over last year’s starter Mac Jones. Of the 27 QBs in the NFL that had at least 330 passing attempts last season, Jones ranked dead last in yards, passing first downs, and interception percentage. Jones was the worst in the league at keeping the offense on the field.
Brissett will likely begin the season as the starter while Maye acclimates to the NFL. Brissett is no franchise quarterback at this stage in his career, but the veteran can steady the young offense in a way that Jones did not. In 2022, Brissett’s last season as a starter, he was 8th in the league in interception percentage.
He also managed more passing first downs than Jones that year despite starting three fewer games than Jones. Brissett won’t be winning the Patriots many games, but he’s a poised veteran who can keep the offense on the field and moving, giving them plenty of opportunities to run the ball.
With a run-first offensive coordinator joining a team with a shaky pass-catching group and an incoming rookie QB, it was clear early in the offseason that the Patriots would be a team that relies heavily on the run. The Patriots made it clear that they believed the centerpiece of that run game was already on the team when they announced that Stevenson had signed a four-year $36 million extension. With guaranteed money through 2026, the Patriots have committed to a Stevenson-led run game as a central part of their offense.
The Patriots only added veteran Running Back Antonio Gibson to the team this offseason. While Gibson once looked to be a promising young back in the league, his star has dulled significantly over the past couple of seasons. His persistent fumbling issues and declining efficiency in the running game had him relegated to pass-catching duties last season. Gibson did perform well as a pass catcher out of the backfield last season, ranking 20th among 63 qualified running backs in yards per route.
To stay on the field in New England, though, he’ll need to drastically improve his history of fumbling the ball. Last year, Gibson was 2nd highest among running backs in the league with four fumbles despite only having 65 rushing attempts on the season. That translates to a fumble once every 17 rushing attempts, the worst rate of any running back that had at least 15 carries last season. This isn’t a single-season outlier either – Gibson led the league in 2021 with six fumbles.
With poor rushing efficiency and a problem with turnovers, it’s unlikely Gibson will receive a significant share of snaps as a rusher. While he may take some pass-catching work away from Stevenson early on, a key fumble or two and Gibson could find himself placed firmly on the bench.
A Skilled Running Back
In 2022, Stevenson broke out as an NFL sophomore, averaging 5 yards per carry, a mark that ranked 5th among the 42 running backs with 100+ carries on the season. Not only was he effective on the ground, but he was highly involved as a pass catcher, ranking 4th in receptions among running backs. This breakout season for the then NFL sophomore had him finish as RB11 on the season and led to him being chosen in the middle of the 3rdround in fantasy drafts ahead of last season.
Unfortunately, due to a combination of a slow start to the season and an injury that finished his season in week 13, Stevenson had a disappointing fantasy finish. While it’s important to look at what led to the disappointing season, Stevenson’s fall down the ADP board this season is being accelerated by the scars fantasy managers have from a season ago.
I understand that drafting Stevenson in the third round and watching a player who should have been a weekly starter finish as the RB36 on the season can be a tough pill to swallow. That is exactly why he has turned into a mid-round value this season.
Stevenson started the season terribly. In his first five games, he averaged 7.9 fantasy points a game. While that stretch was truly forgettable, the Patriots' lead runner bounced back and proceeded to put up 14.1 fantasy points per game over his next six games. In that six game stretch, he finished in the top 24 five times and in the top 10 three times. That pace would have him finish as RB14 on the season, well ahead of his ADP of RB22 right now. Unfortunately, that run was cut short by an ankle injury that cut his season short.
Looking deeper into the stats we see just how effective Stevenson was during the 6+ games stretch he was on before his season-ending injury. In that time, he had 88 carries and averaged 3.58 yards per carry after contact alone. That would have ranked 4th in the NFL last season.
What hurt Stevenson was the lack of yards before contact available to him. That stat is an indicator of how effective the offense is at creating good running opportunities more than it is about the skill of a running back. In that measure, Stevenson ranked 52nd out of 68 qualifying running backs last year. That measure should see a drastic improvement with a more competent quarterback leading the offense.
Summary
Rhamondre Stevenson’s breakout season in 2022 saw him shoot up draft boards last season, only to disappoint due to a slow start and a season-ending injury.
The efficiency that made Stevenson a hot target in 2023 drafts returned following a slow 5 game start to the season. He was among the league leaders in yards after contact in those 6 games and was on an RB14 pace before going down with a season-ending injury.
New offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt saw his offenses in Cleveland finish in the top 10 in rushing attempts all five seasons he was with the team. It seems the Patriots similarly want to make the running game a focal point of their offense after re-signing Stevenson to a 4-year $36 million extension.
New Quarterbacks Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett replace Mac Jones in the Patriots’ new-look offense. Jones was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league last year while failing to keep the offense on the field. Brisset, who is likely to begin the season as the starter, is not a superstar, but he is a poised veteran who will avoid turnovers and give the offense an opportunity to move down the field.
While new addition Antonio Gibson has shown flashes in the past, his efficiency as a runner has dropped significantly, and his fumbling issues continue to keep him off the field. On a team that projects to win games with a tough defense and an offense that can protect the ball, a single fumble could knock the backup running back out of the rotation, leaving a workhorse role for Stevenson.
At an ADP in the 6th round of 12-team leagues, going as RB22 off the board, Stevenson should well outperform his draft slot and provide high-end RB2 stats for your team this season.
