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Last week, we used KeepTradeCut as a reference and looked at players whose value should rise after this coming season. This week, we’ll take a look at players with the opposite expectation and may see their value drop. First, the players on this list aren’t going to become completely useless but rather may see a drop in their value and could see their sell-high window close. Also, I wanted to avoid a few obvious candidates, so I used the following criteria for this list:

>10th Ranked QB on KeepTradeCut

>12th Ranked RB on KeepTradeCut

>24th Ranked WR on KeepTradeCut

>10th Ranked TE on KeepTradeCut

Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)

QB9: KTC

Justin Herbert is one of the players who made me want to include my disclaimer in the opener that these players won’t be useless for teams. Herbert is a young, great quarterback. So what’s the problem, and why do I think he will lose value this year? His team just lost two great receivers without replacing them with proven players, and will see the team’s pass-first offense shift to a run-heavy scheme.

Since Justin Herbert joined the team, the Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the most pass-happy teams, finishing third in the NFL last year (just four attempts behind Washington Commanders with the most), second in 2022 (behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who set the record for most attempts in a season), third in 2021, and fifth in 2020. Meanwhile, Jim Harbaugh has never had his NFL teams finish past 29th in pass attempts in the NFL. Even if Harbaugh throws more due to having the most capable quarterback he’s had in the NFL, it’s hard to see him getting much past the league average in pass attempts with his tendencies.

With the likelihood of Justin Herbert not benefiting from high volume and being the 9th ranked quarterback on KeepTradeCut at the time of writing this, I could see more high-volume passers like Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence and rushing quarterbacks like Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray, and Jayden Daniels pass him after potentially having higher finishes this season. I think his value will settle around a high-end QB2 on KeepTradeCut, which could open a good buy-low window after the season. However, if the prospect of his scoring and value going down scares you as a contender, it may be best to try to move him for a win-now quarterback.

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Kenneth Walker (Seattle Seahawks)

KTC: RB10

This entry will likely depend on your league format, as I’m mostly looking at this from the perspective of being in a PPR league. Kenneth Walker is a great player and someone that I saw as the second most talented back in his draft class behind Breece Hall. Though Walker is a great runner, he just isn’t used enough in the passing game, and we have seen this be detrimental to his fantasy finishes, with him finishing as the RB20 in points/game this past year and RB16 in points/game in 2022. Despite these finishes, he’s still valued as a top 10 back and over players who are also young and more productive, like Isiah Pacheco, Rachaad White, and James Cook on KeepTradeCut at the time of writing this article.

It takes a special talent to finish as an RB1 in PPR leagues despite minimal receiving work, and it requires high efficiency in the red zone to finish drives. For Kenneth Walker’s first two seasons, he has failed to record over thirty receptions in a season, and though the Seattle Seahawks have a new coaching staff, past trends suggest that they likely won’t change. I’ve also tried to avoid talking too much about Zach Charbonnet, but it’s worth noting that Charbonnet proved to demand more targets from the Seahawks, as he recorded thirty-three receptions last season. Also, Walker had a clear lead in the snap count for the first few weeks of the season but saw this fade starting in week eight when he only played more than 50% of the snaps in only three of his eight finals games that he was healthy for.

Usually, if a back either has trouble receiving passing work or has competition, it can be troublesome for their fantasy finishes. When they have both issues, there are major concerns. If these issues continue into next season, I think more people will catch on to Kenneth Walker’s good but not great finishes, and we’ll see his value drop. Also, the 2025 running back class is packed with great running back prospects that will certainly cause backs like Walker to fall in consensus rankings when prospect/rookie fever hits. 

As I said, I know Kenneth Walker is a good player, but I personally moved him right after his 30+ point game against the Carolina Panthers last year after reading the writing on the wall and was able to get Rachaad White and Dalton Kincaid. I think it’s possible to use Walker’s name power to target a back that has less respect but much more consistent output, thanks to their role in the receiving game.

Devon Achane (Miami Dolphins)

KTC: RB7

This one might make a lot of sense, but I’ll go into it a bit, just in case. Devon Achane had managers a bit worried last year when the Miami Dolphins made him a healthy scratch for week one and was minimally used for week two. Managers felt a lot less concerned after week three when Achane put up 233 total yards and four touchdowns against the Denver Broncos. That performance and a few other strong weeks shot his value up to being a top-five back on KeepTradeCut, then settled to a top-seven back after a knee injury put him on IR. 

Devon Achane’s placement here has less to do with the drafting of Jaylen Wright, as I feel Wright is more of a replacement for Raheem Mostert and more to do with the cluster of backs in Miami right now. Currently, the Dolphins have Achane, Mostert, Wright, and Jeff Wilson, who are all likely to make the final 53-man roster. It’s hard to know exactly what Miami’s plan will be, but there will almost certainly be a rotation with all the backs. We saw this throughout last season, with Achane bouncing between about 40% of snaps and 60% when all backs were healthy. 

Now, where Devon Achane helps himself is his production per touch and having the highest % of snaps played with a target of the team’s backs, which I think will continue next season. The problem is that I think his production will be too inconsistent and very frustrating for managers. With that inconsistency and more time passing from his 50-point outburst, I think managers will start to fade him, and he could see his value drop out of the top ten. So, if you want to move him, you can, but honestly, I would much rather use that dip to buy into him, with Mostert and Jeff Wilson likely moving on after the season.

Nico Collins (Houston Texans)

KTC: WR19

The Houston Texans already looked to be set with a great offense, especially with Nico Collins’ breakout season last year and the emergence of Tank Dell. However, the Texans wanted to take it a step further and added Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to the offense. With so many mouths to feed, it’s going to be difficult for all players to be consistently reliable next season. 

The situation is hard to project with a limited sample size of Nico Collins and Tank Dell together and with Stefon Diggs being on the Buffalo Bills last year. However, I did put together a pretty lengthy article about how I think the situation will shake out next year for all of the receivers. You can find the article at this link: How to Handle the Houston Texans Receivers in 2024 Fantasy Football

 To summarize the article, I think Nico Collins is, unfortunately, going to be the odd one out. I do think he will have a fair floor, but he likely won’t be very reliable on a weekly basis. He could be closer to what we saw of Chris Godwin in 2023. Potentially lower highs than Tank Dell and less consistent outings than Stefon Diggs could decrease his value. 

That being said, I don’t think it’s time to panic and move Nico Collins. Stefon Diggs is a free agent after the season, so we could be back to the Nico Collins and Tank Dell show in Houston in 2025. Also, Collins will be a free agent in 2025, so it’s not impossible for him to move on to a different offense for a feature role again. Right now, though, I think his value has taken a dip, and it will likely continue to dip until the situation around him changes or he seeks out an opportunity elsewhere.

Jordan Addison (Minnesota Vikings)

KTC: WR22

Jordan Addison had a good fantasy year last year, finishing as the WR27, which is a fairly solid finish as a rookie, especially considering the amount of time that Kirk Cousins was out. However, the problem with Addison’s rookie year production is that a lot of his early production came due to the absence of Justin Jefferson. When Jefferson was healthy for the first four weeks of the season, Addison finished as the WR45 in point/game. Also, Reception Perception pointed out some significant struggles against both man and press coverage and slightly above-average results against zone coverage.

The other issue is the quarterback change that will happen this year. The Minnesota Vikings were fourth in the NFL in passing attempts last year but I don’t see that continuing with Sam Darnold and first-rounder JJ McCarthy. They could certainly still be up there but I would be surprised if they finish in the top ten and wouldn’t be surprised if the Vikings finish in the lower half in passing attempts. 

It’s not a perfect comparison since I’m hoping the quarterback play for the Vikings will be better this year (actually, I hope it’s not better as a Green Bay Packers fan), but looking at Jordan Addison’s finishes from week nine to the end of the season continues this concern. He only scored above eleven points in PPR once and was the WR48 in points/game. Also, about half of these games came without Justin Jefferson, and the final game was without TJ Hockenson, whose recovery timeline could also spell trouble for Addison if he’s ready early in the season.

With Jordan Addison ranked as the WR22 on KeepTradeCut at the time of writing this article, I can’t help but look at the names around him and rather take them. The short-term is concerning with the Minnesota Vikings likely reducing the passing output, and I’m not certain if it will ever reach the heights of past years with JJ McCarthy, which will make it nearly impossible to trust that three players catching passes will be reliable fantasy starters. It might be a controversial decision, but I would personally try to use Addison’s name to try to get one of the rookies in this draft who are tied to great quarterbacks to still have a young option but one tied to a better passing quarterback with less competition.

David Njoku (Cleveland Browns)

KTC: TE10 

David Njoku ended the year on fire and finished as the TE6 in PPR last year. The problem is, a lot of that production came with Joe Flacco, who played most of the time after Deshaun Watson was out for the season. When Flacco took over in week thirteen, Njoku was the TE2 in all of fantasy football for the rest of the fantasy season. However, Njoku was the TE28 for weeks one through three and TE10 for weeks nine through ten with Watson.

There is definitely room for optimism that David Njoku could finish 2024 closer to his weeks nine through ten, but the large receiver room further complicates things. The Cleveland Browns already had Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore last year but also added Jerry Jeudy and just gave him a large contract extension. Deshaun Watson already showed some struggles spreading the ball around last year, and four capable pass catchers make it harder to envision a way for Njoku to keep his production up. 

Looking at other tight ends below David Njoku, I couldn’t help but rather want Jake Ferguson, Evan Engram, or even Pat Freiermuth, with all having less established competition for targets from the receivers on their teams. I think if Njoku has the start to the season that he did in 2023, he will almost certainly fall behind most, if not all, of those players. His finish from last year could still have some nice appeal, so it would be wise to re-spin the tight-end wheel with him if you can.