The Bears’ offseason has been absolutely electric. Ryan Poles and the front office have re-signed homegrown stars, drafted young and exciting talent, and made moves in free agency to put the franchise in a position to push for the playoffs. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams was selected by Chicago with the first overall pick in this past April’s NFL Draft. He is walking into one of the best situations for a rookie quarterback we’ve ever seen.
Williams’ pass-catchers now include names such as Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, and Rome Odunze. Allen and Moore each had over 1,200 receiving yards in 2023. Odunze is a former Washington Husky and an elite wide receiver prospect that the Bears selected ninth overall in this past NFL Draft. Chicago has done a great job developing every phase of the team, especially the offense, in order to accelerate the pace of their rebuild.
However, the Bears made one addition to their team that may not prove to be a great investment, especially for fantasy owners looking to select a running back in the middle rounds of their fantasy drafts.
The Bears signed former Eagles running back D’Andre Swift to a 3-year, $24 million contract on March 11, 2024. Swift is now the league’s eighth-highest-paid running back, a somewhat confusing move as one wouldn’t expect Chicago to invest heavily into the running back position after every other offseason move in the Windy City has pointed to an extremely pass-heavy offense.
Nonetheless, Swift is only 25 years old and set a new career-high mark in rushing yards in 2023, logging 1,049 on the ground. That’s the first time that the former Georgia Bulldog had run for over 1,000 yards in a single professional season. Swift now looks to top the backfield, which still includes Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. Unfortunately, multiple factors are working against Swift and his fantasy outlook in Chicago.
D’Andre Swift and the Detroit Lions
It’s no secret that Philadelphia was one of the best situations D’Andre Swift could’ve ended up in when he was hoping to revitalize his career. Swift was traded to Philly during the first night of the 2023 NFL Draft by the Detroit Lions in exchange for later-round draft compensation. Detroit ended up selecting former Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick. It’s safe to say this move worked out better for them in the long run.
During his tenure with the Lions, D’Andre Swift only led the team in rushing one time during his three-year stint with the team. He was never really able to make a strong enough case to take over as the lead back in Motor City, conceding carries to the likes of Jamaal Williams and Adrian Peterson (yes, you read that correctly).
Swift always seemed to be on the cusp of a breakthrough in Detroit but was never quite able to put the pieces together, only rushing for over 600 yards once through his first three seasons in the NFL. However, Swift maintained high upside due to his ability to produce in the passing game. He logged over 300 receiving yards in each of his first three seasons, even racking up 452 receiving yards in 2021.
Still, after the 2022 NFL season, it seemed as though Swift’s time in Detroit was coming to a close one way or another. That’s when the Philadelphia Eagles swooped in.
On Eagle’s Wings
As previously stated, Philadelphia was a phenomenal landing spot for D’Andre Swift. He immediately landed behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. Jason Kelce, Lane Johnson, Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson, and Cam Jurgens created a situation for Swift to thrive by creating massive holes in the defense for Swift to fly through.
This was reflected heavily in advanced statistics, among running backs with 100+ rush attempts, Swift was seventh in yards before contact per attempt. This means that he was facing fewer amounts of would-be tacklers due to the play of his offensive line. He was averaging three rushing yards before even experiencing contact. It’s no surprise that Swift experienced a career-high in rushing yards behind this offensive line after he finally received a high level of volume.
However, Swift left a lot to be desired as a rusher. He struggled to gain yards after contact and didn’t look especially explosive outside of the opportunities created by his offensive line. He definitely had some positive moments but only averaged 1.6 yards after contact per attempt in 2023.
In short, Philly’s offensive line created a situation in which D’Andre Swift thrived, but he may not be the lead running back that Chicago believes they’re getting.
Why D’Andre Swift Will Disappoint with the Chicago Bears
The issue with Swift being drafted as a top-25 running back in fantasy football is that he has most likely reached his statistical ceiling as a player. In 2023, he had the luxury of being the lead running back while also playing behind one of the most well-constructed offensive lines in the entire league.
Chicago may have a pretty solid offensive line across the board, but it doesn’t exactly compare to the Eagles’ line in 2023. Swift had an elite situation and role in 2023, but unfortunately for his fantasy managers, this is no longer the case.
Swift also faces competition from fellow Bears running backs Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. Herbert has tallied over 1,700 rushing yards while averaging 4.9 yards per carry over the first three years of his career. Johnson, coming off of a solid rookie season, presents a threat to Swift’s role in the Bears’ passing attack.
The sophomore running back logged an impressive 40 targets during his rookie season. In contrast, Swift is coming off of the worst receiving season of his career by far. The Bears also hired former Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron to the same position for the 2024 NFL season. Waldron’s offense in Seattle averaged 22.5 rush attempts per game in 2023, a mark that ranked 31st among all NFL teams last season.
To make matters worse for D’Andre Swift’s fantasy outlook, the Bears invested heavily into pass-catchers this offseason in order to surround their highly-drafted rookie quarterback with an adequate amount of weapons for his inaugural campaign. To free up cap space, the Los Angeles Chargers traded superstar wide receiver Keenan Allen to the Bears for only a fourth-round pick.
Wide receiver D.J. Moore had an excellent first season in Chicago last season after spending the first five years of his career with the Panthers. The Bears just signed him to a four-year, $110 million contract extension. Former University of Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze was selected with the ninth-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to complete this elite receiving trio. Everything is lined up for the Bears to be a pass-heavy offense in 2024.
Conclusion
Overall, there is significant evidence to support the claim that D’Andre Swift is not worth his current price in fantasy football drafts. Too many factors within his offensive environment suggest that his production will decrease this season, leaving fantasy managers susceptible to disappointment.
Steer clear of Swift in fantasy this season and consider investing in one of Chicago’s pass-catchers instead. The Bears have a lot of high-upside fantasy options on their team, but D’Andre Swift is not one of them.
