7. Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Record: 10-7
At the start of December 2023, the Jaguars were an AFC-best 8-3 and looked primed for a serious playoff run. However, their season quickly unraveled with a 1-5 finish, leaving them with a final mark of 9-8 and outside of a playoff berth. Now, in 2024, Jacksonville is entering the fourth season of former number one overall pick Trevor Lawrence, as well as the third of former Super Bowl champion head coach Doug Pederson. It’s safe to say that both men have something to prove after last season’s step backwards.
Even in a brutally tough AFC, the Jags look like a strong bet to bounce back. It’s time for Lawrence to silence his doubters and lead the Jaguars back to the postseason now that the team has given him their complete vote of confidence with a big money long-term deal.
6. Los Angeles Chargers
Projected Record: 10-7
Like Jacksonville, the Chargers were a playoff team in 2022 that failed to achieve the same success last season. LA was decimated by injuries all throughout the 2023 campaign, culminating in the season-ending finger injury of star quarterback Justin Herbert in their Week 14 game against the Broncos. The consistently poor coaching of Brandon Staley had also managed to hold them back in recent seasons. However, all of that can seemingly be forgotten now that Jim Harbaugh is at the helm.
Harbaugh has found quick success at all of his previous coaching destinations, including taking the 49ers from 6-10 to 13-3 in his first season there in 2011. The Chargers also did a formidable job at restructuring their roster, both in free agency and in the draft. Their top two draft picks, offensive tackle Joe Alt and wide receiver Ladd McConkey, have both been standouts in training camp. Assuming Justin Herbert’s foot injury does not cause him to miss any game time, LA’s future looks promising.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
Projected Record: 11-6
The Bengals made the AFC Championship in both seasons, and Joe Burrow managed to stay healthy. The prospect of a healthy Burrow makes it hard to bet against Cincinnati, even in the relentlessly brutal AFC North. The Bengals also get the benefit of having a last-place schedule, which includes games against New England, Carolina, and Tennessee (all of whom their three division rivals don’t get the luxury of playing).
Another boost comes from the fact that the Tee Higgins trade speculation has appeared to have cooled off, making it likely that Higgins will play the 2024 season in Cincinnati. Questions on the offensive line and in certain positions on defense could potentially limit Cincy to a Wild Card spot.
4. Houston Texans
Projected Record: 10-7
Houston is on a shortlist among teams that had the best off-season. They added impact players in Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, and Danielle Hunter, along with a plethora of other signings. All of these guys join a team that already won the AFC South a season ago and followed it up with a blowout win in the Wild Card Round against the Browns. Reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud now has an elite supporting cast after winging it with what was seemingly a bunch of unknowns in his rookie campaign.
Do not, however, expect Houston to run away with the division title, given that both the Jaguars and Colts appear to be feisty challengers. Houston should, nevertheless, be one of the AFC’s best teams.
3. Buffalo Bills
Projected Record: 11-6
The demise of the Buffalo Bills has been greatly exaggerated all offseason long. All of the negativity surrounding this team has primarily spurned from the departure of Stefon Diggs. Need I remind everyone that the Chiefs went on to win back-to-back Super Bowls after parting ways with Tyreek Hill (who is apparently the best player in the league according to the NFL’s Top 100 list). If recent history has taught us anything, it’s that almost all wide receivers, no matter how great, are ultimately replaceable, especially for the league’s better run organizations.
Buffalo still has a strong defense, a top-10 offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus, a promising array of young skill players, and most importantly, one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league’s 100+ year history. Even with the uncertainty surrounding their receiving corps, I’m still trusting Josh Allen to finish above Tua’s Dolphins and Aaron’s Jets.
2. Baltimore Ravens
Projected Record: 12-5
Last year’s top seed had an intriguing offseason with both pros and cons. The addition of star running back Derrick Henry will surely help stabilize what has been an injury-riddled backfield over the past few seasons. However, the loss of Second-team All-Pro linebacker Patrick Queen leaves a hole in the middle of their defense. Also, keep in mind that each of Baltimore’s division rivals lost their starting quarterback to injury last season.
The return of Joe Burrow and Deshaun Watson, plus a revitalized QB situation in Pittsburgh, should make for a tougher path for this season’s Ravens. Nevertheless, they remain the favorites in the NFL’s toughest division, if only by a small margin.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Projected Record: 12-5
There’s only one question I have when determining whether or not Kansas City will finish as the AFC’s top seed: how much do they care about having home-field advantage? After all, they didn’t have it last year, and we all saw that it didn’t matter. However, as we’ve seen in the past with the Brady/Belichick Patriots, there comes a point where the dynastic team is just better than everybody else. This very point in NFL history looks to be the exact time where the Chiefs have reached the peak of their power.
Not only are they coming off consecutive Super Bowl wins, but they also managed to retain all of their biggest contributors and even somehow got better in certain spots. Adding Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy to their exciting young group of receivers seems unfair. The Chiefs remain the best bet to finish as the AFC’s top seed.
