While dynasty leagues can be active year-round, managers often re-engage with their teams this time of year as fantasy football hype hits its peak. Therefore, it’s important to be ready to strike with trade offers to maximize your team’s value, whether you’re a contender or in the middle of a rebuild.'
In this article, I’ll highlight three dynasty-buy candidates that you should be trying to acquire for your team and three dynasty-sell candidates that you should be looking to move while their value is still high. All player values used here come from the dynasty website Keep Trade Cut, which gives a general idea of how your league mates may value these players.
Buy Candidates
Nico Collins (WR16)
One of my favorite advantages to target in fantasy football is the ambiguous pass-catching group. Rarely do teams operate with multiple equal fantasy producers at the wide receiver position. There is almost always an alpha top receiver and a complementary number two. When there is uncertainty about which player will be which, neither is valued as the number one option.
CJ Stroud’s emergence as the leader of the next generation of superstar quarterbacks brought with it an important question for fantasy – who will be his top pass catcher? Patrick Mahomes has Travis Kelce, Joe Burrow has Ja’Marr Chase, and Josh Allen had Stefon Diggs. For every elite passer, there is an elite fantasy pass catcher who is the beneficiary.
I believe Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins has done enough to show that he is that number one option, and it seems the Texans agree after handing him a 3-year $72.75 million extension despite already being under contract for this year. His stats in his first year with Stroud indicate that the contract may be very team-friendly.
Collins was 2nd in the league in yards per route run (YPRR) last season with 3.10 despite playing the lowest percentage of slot snaps of any of the top 12 wide receivers in receiving yards last season. Slot routes provide receivers with easier opportunities to beat defenders and get open for looks, yet Collins managed to outpace almost every other wide receiver in the league in YPRR despite playing the vast majority of his snaps out of the more difficult position out wide.
Collins managed an astonishing combination of a high catch percentage with high efficiency. Brandon Aiyuk was the only other wide receiver to rank in the top 15 in both catch percentage and yards per catch among the 80 wide receivers that were targeted 50+ times last year.
While Collins is currently priced in both dynasty and redraft formats as the top wideout on the Texans, his value is still depressed by the uncertainty around how much volume Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs will take.
Dell is an exciting young wide receiver, but at 5’8” and 165lbs, he’s far from being built like a dominant top NFL wide receiver. That’s not to say he’s not a great wide receiver or even a dynasty asset (I believe his WR21 value in dynasty could be a value as well), but he won’t be challenging Nico Collins as the number one wide receiver on this team.
Stefon Diggs was one of the best wide receivers in the league during his tenure in Buffalo, but his play fell off significantly last year in both production and underlying efficiency. Diggs, who will be turning 31 this season, is exiting his prime and won’t compete with Collins in Houston. It’s possible Collins’ last season was better than Diggs’ best seasons in Buffalo.
Collins’ YPRR mark of 3.10 last year is significantly higher than Diggs ever reached in Buffalo, with his highest mark being 2.51. Diggs benefited from significant volume in Buffalo due to a lack of receiver talent around him, but in Houston, that won’t be the case.
Diggs’ time is likely to be short in Houston anyway. The team voided the remaining years on his contract when bringing him in from Buffalo. They will likely use him out of the slot on shorter routes, where he is still effective, before letting him walk as a free agent next season.
What is really exciting about Collins’ prospects moving forward is that his breakout season just scraped the surface of his possible fantasy output. While Collins’ efficiency metrics were some of the best in the league, the reason he is still valued outside of the top 12 wide receivers is the lack of volume. The Texans were 19th in the league in pass rate over expectation at -2.2%.
That means that based on the situation they were in, they passed the ball 2.2% less than what a team would be expected to do. Teams with elite quarterbacks are often the ones that lead this statistic. The Chiefs, Bengals, Vikings, and Cowboys all featured in the top 6 of the statistic last year.
Bringing in Diggs with two great young receivers already on the team shows that Houston plans to use more three wide receiver sets and allow CJ Stroud to lead a passing attack with significantly more volume.
Collins has an elite quarterback in a well-run offense that looks poised to expand their passing volume while boasting some of the best efficiency metrics in the league. Don’t be surprised if we’re looking at the Stroud-Collins duo this time next year in a similar light to Burrow and Chase.
DJ Moore (WR18)
Similar to Collins, Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore is in an ambiguous wide receiver room on a team that could be a high-scoring offense. The Bears are certainly more of a projection than the Texans to be a high-powered offense, but the potential is there. New Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is one of the most highly regarded prospects in decades.
While there is no guarantee that he lives up to the hype he received as a prospect, it’s rare for these types of quarterback prospects to outright fail at the NFL level. If Caleb can just be a middle-of-the-pack NFL quarterback, he’d still be the best passer that DJ Moore has ever had.
Rookie quarterbacks have a bad reputation in fantasy football for not supporting top wide receivers for fantasy. The truth is rookie quarterbacks usually have much worse wide receivers than teams that don’t have a rookie quarterback. Over the past ten years, there have been 22 rookie quarterbacks drafted in the first round that started 8+ games in their rookie season.
Their top wide receivers averaged 1.69 YPRR the season before. For comparison, the average yards per route run of all top wide receivers for their team last year was 2.13. Only two rookie quarterbacks have had a wide receiver coming off a season with a YPRR over 2, with the highest being 2.06.
Simply, rookie quarterbacks are not given elite or even very good receivers. That won’t be the case for Caleb Williams. Both DJ Moore and Keenan Allen would well outpace that previous high of 2.06 YPRR as they averaged 2.31 and 2.36 YPRR, respectively, last season. Caleb is coming into a perfect situation to help him excel right off the bat.
The talent of DJ Moore is unquestionable. He managed to finish as the WR6 last season despite the Chicago Bears finishing 27th in both passing attempts and passing yards. His quarterback last year, Justin Fields, was just the latest of a list of inaccurate passers that Moore has had to deal with in his career.
Keenan Allen has been a productive wide receiver for several years, but at 32 years old, he’s entering the twilight of his career. He’s missed 11 games across the past two seasons, and it’s likely that at his age, health will continue to be a problem moving forward. Allen is also in the final year of his contract and could leave the Bears in free agency following this season.
That leaves rookie 1st rounder Rome Odunze as the top competition for DJ Moore in Chicago. While Odunze is a great prospect, and I believe he’ll be a great fantasy contributor moving forward, he isn’t proven enough to push a star receiver in DJ Moore aside, at least not yet.
DJ Moore is an established star wide receiver in the NFL, topping 1150 yards in 4 of the past 5 seasons. That doesn’t mean Odunze can’t surpass him as the team’s number one at some point, but it’s unlikely it will come in his first season or two in the league. They also occupy somewhat different spaces in the field.
While Odunze was known for his jump ball effectiveness in college, Moore excels more in space after the catch. Even if Odunze overtakes Moore eventually as the team’s top receiver, they will complement each other, and both provide value for fantasy.
Moore is currently valued on KTC behind DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle, two wide receivers who are the clear 2nd options on their team. Not only does Moore have a high likelihood of being the top receiver in Chicago and boosting his dynasty value, but his downside outcome of being a 2nd option on his team could still see him valued similarly to where he currently is.
Moore’s status as a buy candidate in dynasty comes from his significant potential to jump into the top 12 wide receiver conversation, with a floor not far below where he is already priced.
Michael Wilson (WR69)
My last wide receiver buy candidate comes at a significantly cheaper price than the previous two. Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson can be found at the bottom of a team’s bench in most dynasty leagues and is currently valued just ahead of a 2026 late 2nd-round pick.
Wilson finished last season as the top wide receiver on the Cardinals by YPRR. He was far from a star receiver, however, finishing the season with 38 catches for 565 yards and 3 TDs. That rookie campaign was interrupted by midseason injuries that saw him miss four games and inconsistent quarterback play before Kyler Murray’s return from injury.
In his final two games with Murray at quarterback, he showed some flashes of what could be finishing with 13.5 and 12.5 fantasy points. His 14.87 yards per catch is also evidence of big play potential in the future.
2024 offers a much better situation for Wilson, with Murray back healthy and 4thoverall pick Marvin Harrison joining the team. While in most cases, adding a potential star wide receiver like Harrison to the team would be bad for a receiver’s fantasy prospects, Wilson was never built to be the top wideout for his team, and he’s certainly not valued as one. With Harrison on the field, there will be less attention on Wilson, opening up the field for him to have some big plays.
Already in camp, he’s shown what he can do. The Cardinals brought in Zay Jones to compete for the wide receiver position opposite Harrison, but in the first released depth chart, the Cardinals slotted Wilson in as the team’s WR2.
This offense has a chance to be one of the most improved units from last year. In the first three seasons of Murray’s career, before a torn ACL subjected the Cardinals to a rotating cast of backup quarterbacks, the Cardinals ranked in the top half of scoring each year. The Cardinals also feature one of the worst defenses in the league, meaning that they’ll likely be in several shootout-style games that require significant passing volume.
Wilson showed promise as a rookie and is now primed to be the number two wide receiver for what could be a high-powered offense. With a very good quarterback throwing him the ball and the most talked about wide receiver talent to enter the league in over a decade, taking away pressure from him on the other side, Wilson could be one of the biggest dynasty risers this season.
Sell Candidates
Drake London (WR12)
Evaluating “Sell” candidates in dynasty can be a hard thing to do. It’s easy to look at a player, find the best-case scenario, and believe that the ceiling outcome is more likely than it is. There are also several players you believe will be quality NFL and fantasy players but are being overvalued. That last point is my evaluation of Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London.
London is a talented young receiver who has struggled for fantasy (WR36 and WR39 in his first two seasons) due to a combination of run-heavy offensive schemes and poor quarterback play. Both those issues seem to have been addressed, and it shows with how fantasy players are valuing him.
London is currently ranked at WR12 on KTC, 24 spots ahead of his highest-ever fantasy finish. I agree with London being a player who will far exceed his previous fantasy finishes, but he is priced way too high right now. While new quarterback Kirk Cousins and new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson are expected to revitalize the passing game in Atlanta, there are plenty of question marks that make London’s price tag unpalatable.
The first question mark is Cousins himself. Cousins will start the season as a 36-year-old coming off a torn Achilles. It is entirely possible that coming off that injury, he can’t recapture the success he’s had in Minnesota over the past six seasons. Even if Cousins comes back healthy, there seems to be an expectation that he’ll immediately be a top-10 passer in the league on a brand-new team with different weapons and a new offensive system.
In his time in Minnesota, Cousins was spoiled with a constant supply of elite skill position talent. When he joined the team in 2018, they featured Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs, and a prime Adam Thielen. The team then added Justin Jefferson to replace Diggs in 2020. Jefferson, in his first season, established himself as one of the premier talents in the NFL.
While the Falcons have a talented trio of offensive weapons in place for Cousins, London hasn’t shown anything nearly resembling Justin Jefferson levels of playmaking. I’d argue Diggs was a more productive playmaker during his time with the Vikings and Cousins than London has shown in his career so far.
Cousins is also coming from an extremely pass-heavy offense run by Kevin O’Connell, which brings me to the second major question mark for London – scheme. While Zac Robinson comes from the same coaching tree as O’Connell, it will be Robinson’s first time as an NFL play-caller. There is no guarantee that Robinson holds the same passion for pass-first gameplans that his fellow Sean McVay disciple does.
McVay’s offenses have been fairly balanced throughout his time with the LA Rams, and he focused a lot on the run game when he’s had the personnel to do so. While former Falcons head coach Arthur Smith certainly frustrated the fantasy community (or at least Drake London owners) with his commitment to the run, it’s hard to argue against that philosophy in an offense with a talented run-blocking offensive line creating opportunities for Bijan Robinson.
Bijan Robinson brings me to my third question mark for Drake London’s outlook – opportunities. London is not the only talented pass-catcher on this team. 23-year-old tight end Kyle Pitts was slowed last year by a lingering knee injury but seems to be fully healthy entering this season. Pitts managed 1000 yards as a rookie despite playing in an Arthur Smith offense.
Bijan Robinson was also a significant target out of the backfield last year, ranking 3rd among all running backs in targets. Finally, the Falcons brought in another former 1000-yard receiver in Darnell Mooney, who Cousins identified himself as a target for the team. This group of pass-catchers does not need London to be among the league leaders in targets to be successful.
The health of Cousins, his effectiveness on a new team, and the ability of a first-time play-caller cast some doubts on whether this Falcons offense will break out the way many project. I think that the team will manage to work through those concerns to be a top half of the league offense in 2024, but there are still important risks to consider.
Where I have significant concerns for London’s production is the target competition on the team and the potential to be a run-heavy team. In order for London to put up top-12 wide receiver numbers for fantasy, this team will need to be near the top of the league in passing volume as Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and even Darnell Mooney will get their share of targets. With a strong run-blocking offensive line and standout running back Bijan Robinson available, I don’t believe the team will neglect the run this season.
Some may say that London doesn’t need to finish as a top-12 wide receiver to justify his price in dynasty since he’s only 23 years old. I disagree. London is now in year three and few wide receivers in the modern NFL truly break out past that time. He is also potentially looking at the best quarterback situation he’ll have for the foreseeable future.
A 36-year-old quarterback with a significant lower-body injury on his resume isn’t a candidate to improve year over year. If London fails to finish as a top-12 wide receiver for fantasy, then he will no longer be valued as a young receiver who’s been limited by poor quarterback play; he will be an established veteran who hasn’t taken that next step.
That won’t be valued at WR12 above players that have already produced on good offenses like Jaylen Waddle, Nico Collins, and DeVonta Smith or emerging young receivers like Rome Odunze and Tank Dell. While London could have by far the best season of his career, it would take the stars to truly align for his value to increase this time next season.
Zay Flowers (WR23)
Baltimore Ravens standout wide receiver Zay Flowers is coming off a very productive rookie season. After finishing the season as the WR30, it’s understandable that dynasty managers are expecting him to continue to rise. Looking into how he got to WR30 last season and the limiting factors on his ceiling show why he’s a sell candidate at his current price.
The Ravens were one of only three teams in the league with under 500 passing attempts last year. That’s par for the course with the Ravens led by Lamar Jackson. This has been, and will continue to be a run-first team. There’s good reason to expect the team to lean even further into the run this year, with Gus Edwards being replaced by Derrick Henry.
Under normal circumstances, a rookie reaching WR30 on a very run-heavy team would be reason for optimism. Flowers’ circumstances were not normal. In his first 11 games of the season, Flowers averaged 8.5 half-ppr fantasy points per game. That would have ranked as WR49 on the season. In that 11th game, however, starting tight end Mark Andrews suffered an ankle injury that kept him out of the lineup for the remainder of the regular season. In Andrews’ absence, Flowers excelled, bringing up his fantasy production significantly.
The 28-year-old Andrews will be back healthy this season, moving Flowers back to the 2nd receiving option on the run-heavy team. Flowers also faces new competition from 4th-round rookie Devontez Walker. Rashod Bateman has seemingly been the highlight of Ravens camp so far as well, and they just received an extension from the team this offseason.
The argument against Flowers at this price tag is simple. This is a run-first team that just upgraded their running game personnel. Flowers benefited from the volume left behind after Andrews’ injury, which will no longer be up for grabs when Andrews is back healthy this season. Even if Flowers can continue to develop, there simply isn’t a high ceiling for any Ravens wide receiver.
Marquise Brown is the only wide receiver to put up a top-24 season with Lamar Jackson at quarterback, and that was in 2021 when he finished as the WR24. Zay Flowers is an exciting young talent, but he simply doesn’t have the upside in this offense to warrant his current price tag.
Deebo Samuel (WR26)
49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel will turn 29 this season. For a wide receiver dependent on speed and explosiveness who has racked up several injuries throughout his career, he could be approaching a production cliff very soon. Dynasty strategy can depend heavily on your situation, but even for contenders, it can be good practice to sell productive players while their value is high before the inevitable age-related drop.
Samuel’s status as a trade candidate isn’t because he’s shown poor play on the field; it’s exactly the opposite. Samuel is still valued above the next generation of young, solid receivers who could be part of the core of your dynasty team long after Samuel retires. It’s entirely possible that Samuel still has another productive fantasy season in the cards, but even if he does, his value will have declined this time next year.
If Samuel is the difference maker in winning you a championship this year, then I understand taking the risk and holding on to him through the drop in value. If he’s not essential to your chances as a contender, or you’re in the middle of a rebuild, you should be shopping him for one of the rookie or sophomore wide receivers that could be top 20 dynasty wide receivers a year from now.
