7. Chicago Bears
Projected Record: 9-8
The Monsters of the Midway are this season’s sexy pick to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020. The hype is real for Caleb Williams and company to help stabilize a franchise that has been long deprived of a consistent contender ever since the days of being coached by “Iron” Mike Ditka. Chicago hasn’t won their division since 2018 and hasn’t won a playoff game since 2010. With that being said, the future looks as bright as it’s ever looked in the Windy City.
Unlike most number one overall picks, Williams gets the luxury of joining an above-average roster with plenty of potential. There are only a few foreseeable factors that could hold the Bears back in 2024, among which are Williams’ inexperience, questions surrounding head coach Matt Eberflus, and the heightened difficulty of the NFC North. As of right now, I expect Chicago to scrap together enough wins to narrowly lock in the NFC’s last Wild Card spot.
6. Los Angeles Rams
Projected Record: 10-7
The Rams are a sneaky Super Bowl dark horse, even as my projected sixth seed. They have an elite quarterback/head coach combo and a recent Super Bowl pedigree (the most recent of anybody not named Kansas City). While losing one of the greatest defensive players of all time will certainly have an effect, the Rams were able to rebound about as well as could be expected.
Star Florida State edge rusher Jared Verse fell right into their laps at pick number 19 in the first round of this year’s draft. Verse was projected by many to be drafted within the top ten picks, making him a steal for a team looking for a pass rusher. Assuming that their defense doesn’t take too much of a hit from the loss of Aaron Donald, the Rams should be good to go for a serious playoff push, given how they’re completely stacked on the offensive side of the ball.
5. Green Bay Packers
Projected Record: 11-6
At this time last year, Green Bay had little-to-no expectations for the upcoming season. After a rocky and inconsistent first three months, the Packers (and their new star quarterback) caught fire in December and January to not only make the playoffs but also earn a shocking upset win against the Cowboys in the Wild Card Round. Now, as the 2024 season looms ahead, the Packers have returned to being a suspected Super Bowl contender.
But there is still room for improvement, considering that they were only 9-8 in the regular season last year. Swapping out Aaron Jones for the younger and more dynamic Josh Jacobs makes their running game more formidable. Even with no other major acquisitions, the Packers should have a noticeable boost just from their young core having another year of experience under their belt.
4. Atlanta Falcons
Projected Record: 10-7
Atlanta has missed the playoffs for six consecutive seasons, a streak that is tied with Carolina for the longest in the NFC. In spite of the playoff drought, the Falcons are favored to claim the NFC South division title in 2024, and rightfully so. Both the Buccaneers and Saints failed to improve in the offseason, while the Panthers are still far away from contending for a playoff spot.
Poor quarterback play had been holding the Falcons back ever since the departure of Matt Ryan after the 2021 season. Assuming that Kirk Cousins can stay healthy, Atlanta is now formidable at the most important position, giving them a significant edge over their three mediocre division rivals.
3. San Francisco 49ers
Projected Record: 12-5
For now, I’ll go out on a limb and say that the reigning conference champions will not finish as the NFC’s top seed for the second consecutive season, even though I still have them winning 12 games and finishing as NFC West champs for what would be the third-straight season. Christian McCaffrey is dealing with a calf injury, which, although minor, could end up being something to watch out for.
The Niners’ receiving corps might also look quite different this season, with the immediate future of Brandon Aiyuk still up in the air. Their 2024 first-round draft pick, receiver Ricky Pearsall, recently suffered a shoulder injury that could lead to him missing some time, leaving even more question marks surrounding San Fran’s group of receivers. Furthermore, I expect the NFC as a whole to be better this season, giving the Niners a harder road to the top of the conference.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Projected Record: 12-5
There are very few, if any, teams in the league under more pressure to succeed in 2024 than the Philadelphia Eagles. After a disastrous December and January led them to go from an NFL-best 10-1 record to being eliminated in the Wild Card round in blowout fashion, Philly is on the clock. They made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason, stealing Saquon Barkley away from their big blue division rivals, a move that has propelled the team’s expectations through the roof.
It works in their favor that the NFC East looks to be in its’ weakest condition since 2021. Dallas’ roster is noticeably worse than it was a year ago, Washington is rebuilding, and the Giants are still the Giants. Philly is in pole position to reclaim the division title and take one of the NFC’s top seeds.
1. Detroit Lions
Projected Record: 13-4
The NFL landscape changes quickly and often quite dramatically, and the Lions are a perfect example. They are just three years removed from a 3-13-1 record and coming off their best season in over 30 years. Not a single team in the NFL has more momentum heading into the new campaign. Momentum is the key in picking Detroit to finish as the top seed over the likes of Philly, San Fran, and Green Bay (all of whom could have a reasonable case).
The Eagles are in need of a rebound after last season’s horrid ending, while the 49ers look to be in cruise control after repeated failures in the Super Bowl and NFC title game over the past five years. Although Green Bay does have considerable momentum after last year’s surprise success, they still have the youngest roster in the NFL, leaving the Lions as seemingly the best choice to top the conference.
