Rookies are hard to deal with in fantasy football. Setting expectations in year one for potential draft-day targets who are just starting to learn new offenses and develop connections with their new quarterbacks or offensive lines is a daunting task, to say the least. 

However, some rookies are thrust into the spotlight immediately, creating a small window of time for the general public to predict whether they will sink or swim in their first season. Rookies who are selected to sit at the end of digital fantasy football benches usually have relatively short leashes unless they have outside factors that could play into a slow start (e.g., Panthers rookie running back Jonathon Brooks). 

Nonetheless, if a low-price rookie doesn’t settle into a role quickly, they may be headed for free agency sooner rather than later. Patience can run thin fast in redraft leagues. Like the NFL, there isn’t much patience for early struggles on the field nowadays. Detailed fantasy football film breakdown: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxEi6-NrtTk

Change Within Buffalo’s Herd

It’s no secret that this has been an unfamiliar offseason in Buffalo. Having to release several key contributors in order to free up much-needed cap space was not high on many Bills fans’ wish lists. Buffalo cut players such as C Mitch Morse, S Jordan Poyer, CB Siran Neal, and CB Tre’Davious White early in the offseason after being faced with a massive cap space deficit. Other impact players were lost in free agency this offseason. This list of former Bills includes EDGE Leonard Floyd, LB Tyrel Dodson, and WR Gabe Davis. 

But in what was perhaps the most shocking move of Buffalo’s 2023 offseason, the Bills traded superstar WR Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans in exchange for a 2025 second-round pick. This move came after the wideout perplexed fans with his puzzling activity on social media, leading some to believe that Buffalo’s leading receiver had become discontent with the Bills organization. 

Whatever the cause, change had finally arrived in the form of a roster-shuffling gut punch for the Bills fans and the organization alike. Holes had been created all over the team, and it was up to the front office to fill them in a timely manner. One of the most nagging needs had formed at the wide receiver position due to the now stark reality that Diggs and Davis had both departed from Buffalo by way of trade and free agency, respectively. 

From The Sunshine State to Buffalo’s Blizzards: Keon Coleman

Buffalo used the 33rd-overall pick to select former Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman. The 21-year-old wideout has an immediate opportunity to do what all fantasy managers dream that their rookies will accomplish: becoming the top receiving option in a pass-heavy offense with an elite quarterback. 

At first glance, Coleman looks like the perfect receiver for Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Allen has a rocket arm and pushes the ball downfield often, an area in which Coleman repeatedly succeeded during his collegiate career. The former Florida State wide receiver excels at reeling in contested catches. This skill can be credited to his massive frame (6’4”, 215 lbs) and elite athleticism. Coleman displays all of the skills necessary to take over as the Bills’ top receiver in 2024.

The rookie wideout also possesses a unique ability to create after the catch. His impressive array of juke moves and hurdles is especially valuable when paired with his aforementioned size. On top of those attributes, Coleman is a solid route-runner who is able to win reps with shiftiness, size, and physicality. 

Keon Coleman is made even more dangerous with his ability to absolutely dominate in the red zone. He has some great ball skills and can box out opposing defenders in the end zone while making over-the-shoulder or high-point touchdown grabs, a reference to his history as a high school and college basketball player. 

Josh Allen’s Newest Weapon

Much has changed in Buffalo over the past few months, but one fact remains. In fantasy football, any receiver who is on the field with Bills franchise quarterback Josh Allen has an immense opportunity to explode in fantasy value. Even in dynasty fantasy football Coleman should crush. FantasyCalc’s Trade Analyze recommends trading an early 2nd for him

Allen ranked fifth among quarterbacks in both pass attempts and air yards (the number of yards passes travel before being caught), statistically proving that the Buffalo offense is oriented to be pass-heavy and downfield-focused. Buffalo’s quarterback also ranked fourth among the same group in passing yards and eighth in red zone pass attempts, two stats that obviously benefit a receiver like Keon Coleman. 

Allen’s pure talent as a passer brings major upside to the Bills’ receiver room, a group that features Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, and Curtis Samuel as its presumptive top options. 

Another key factor working in Coleman’s favor is the number of vacated targets left behind by Buffalo’s 2023 offense. Over 300 targets were logged to players who are no longer on the Bills’ roster, leaving a gaping hole of volume ready to be assumed by a new receiver. It would make sense that a large portion of those targets could be taken up by the rookie, and the Bills just used the first pick in the second round of the NFL Draft to select. 

How To Handle Keon Coleman in Fantasy Football

Firstly, Keon Coleman is usually ranked by most platforms in the mid-forties to early-fifties among wide receivers in fantasy football. His ranking makes him a low-risk, high-reward draft target. The later rounds were made so fantasy managers could take measured risks by drafting players like Coleman, who have high ceilings but are either rookies or have question marks regarding their role in the offense, their production, or their health.

When determining a certain player’s fantasy value, it’s important to assess the other players around their draft position to be able to analyze if they’re worth their draft price. In Coleman’s case, there is a significant number of other rookie receivers around his ADP to whom we can compare his fantasy value.

The three rookie wide receivers who are usually drafted just slightly above Keon Coleman are Ladd McConkey (Chargers), Xavier Worthy (Chiefs), and Rome Odunze (Bears). However, all of these young players have bigger problems regarding their fantasy outlooks than the newest Buffalo Bill. McConkey is in what could very easily end up being a run-heavy offense. Odunze is facing major competition for targets with teammates D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen. Worthy has decent competition for targets as well. Many scouts are also worried about his size at the NFL level. 

Coleman has an extremely high redraft and dynasty fantasy ceiling with relatively low risk at where he’s currently being drafted. If you get the opportunity to select Coleman in the later rounds of your fantasy drafts, don’t hesitate to draft Josh Allen’s potential top target in an offense with high passing volume and numerous vacated targets. 

Conclusion

All things considered, Keon Coleman presents tremendous upside at the wide receiver position. His offensive situation pairs with his scouting profile extremely well, and he’s in a position to receive a load of targets in his first season. The Bills need a new go-to target, and Coleman might just be that player. At his current ADP, Coleman is going to be an absolute steal in fantasy football this year.