As we approach the biggest draft weekend in CFF, I thought I would provide some thoughts on who is going too high and who is going too low based on Fantrax’s average draft position (ADP). Also, with some late-breaking injury intel, I have provided some people that you need to move up your draft boards.

Underrated 

Jalen Milroe – Alabama QB

Personally, I think he belongs in round 1 talk with Byrum Brown and Kaidon Salter and I have him rated higher than Dillon Gabriel. When I look at Kalen DeBoer’s quarterback track record and what Milroe did the back half of last season, I expect him to be a Heisman finalist. 

KJ Jefferson – UCF QB

KJ’s the closest Gus Malzahn has had to Cam Newton since his national title. I don’t expect Cam Newton numbers, but I do expect Malzahn to get the most out of him in what should be a wide-open, high-scoring Big 12 this year. 

John Mateer – Wash St QB

As of yesterday, he won the starting position. We all saw what Cam Ward did in this system. Combine that with Washington State’s G5-esque schedule this season; you have the potential for video game numbers out of Pullman.

Kyle Monangai – Rutgers RB

A 1,200 yard back last year that has the easiest schedule in the Big 10 this year. Look for him to get a lot of touches and more TDs than last year. 

Jalen While – Ga Southern RB

A consistent 900-yard and 10 TD back the last two seasons seems to be undervalued in ADP. High floor guy who’s worth a mid-round pickup.

Kanye Roberts – App State RB

With Noel leaving for Mizzou, expect the 6.0 average yard per carry Roberts to have a big season for a talented Mountaineer offense. 

Jordan Waters – NC State RB

A proven 1,000-yard all-purpose back at Duke last season, Waters comes into Raleigh as RB1. With top rusher Brennan Armstrong leaving and #2 rusher Concepcion moving back to a traditional slot role, expect Waters to get a lot of volume. Keep Waters in mind for a late-round target. 

Germie Bernard – Alabama WR

Early camp reports have been really positive about Bernard’s chances of being WR1. The Washington transfer has the coaches’ trust and has consistently produced explosive plays in fall practice. 

Silas Bolden – Texas WR

With many drafters targeting Isiah Bond as the top Texas wide receiver, you can get great value with Bolden. Camp reports have been glowing on his progress in the offense and chemistry with Ewers. 

Chris Tyree – UVA WR

Malik Washington led Division 1 in receptions last year. Look for the Notre Dame transfer to take over his bell-cow slot role in an offense that will be playing from behind a lot this season. A big play threat that should have several explosive plays this season. 

Malik Benson – Florida St WR

A big high school recruit coming into a wide-open wide receiver room. Benson looks to be WR1 in this offense. Considering his late-round to undrafted ADP, he’s worth taking a flier on. 

Justin Joly – NC State TE

At UCONN last season, Joly was top 3 in receptions and missed tackles forced for tight ends in Division 1. Combine that athleticism with what OC Robert Anae did with Oronde Gadsen in 2022, and you have top potential.

Overrated 

Carson Beck – UGA QB / Quinn Ewers – Texas QB

I just don’t see the heisman hype. Top end draft picks yes, top tier fantasy numbers no. 

Darius Taylor – Minnesota RB

When he’s healthy, PJ Fleck will feed him 25+ carries a game, which is typically good for 150 yards and 2 TDs in their offense. That said, he was banged up half of last season and has had some hamstring issues recently. If you are looking for a riskier pick in the first two rounds that could pay off big time, Taylor is your guy to target.

Quinshon Judkins/TreyVeyon Henderson – Ohio State RBs

Based on camp intel reports, it looks like Chip Kelly will split carries between Quinshon Judkins and TreyVeyon Henderson. Considering Will Howard’s dual-threat capabilities and split carries, there is a strong possibility that there aren’t enough carries for either to go over 1,000 yards this season. While both are great players who could break out for 100 yards and 2 TDs any week, I’m hesitant to put either in my top 25 running backs due to a lack of bell-cow volume. 

Gavin Sawchuk – Oklahoma RB

Despite a great 2023 campaign, he looks to be in a battle with Jovante Barnes for RB1. There is a strong possibility this will turn into a running back by committee situation. 

Tetairoa McMillan – Arizona WR

I still love Tet’s game, but between injury issues coming into camp and coaching changes, I expect a regression from his massive season last year.

KC Concepcion – NC State WR

While I am very high on NC State’s revamped offense this season, KC isn’t worth the early round value that you see him going in most drafts.

Despite going for over 1,000 all-purpose yards and 10 TDs as a true freshman, NC State brought in a ton of transfer weapons that will likely have OC Robert Anae spreading the ball around a lot more this season. With Noah Rogers, Justin Joly, Wesley Grimes, and Jordan Waters coming in out of the transfer portal, I expect the NC State offense won’t have to force-feed Concepcion like they did last year. 

Tre Harris/Antwane Wells – Ole Miss WRs

Tre Harris was a surprise darling last year with several breakout games. That said, he also had several games where he put up less than 3 points. Some may point to his injury history last season, but even in games where he was fully healthy, he barely got any targets. If you have a best ball format, he’d be worth a target, but in true sit/start, I’m passing. 

Antwane “Juice” Wells also transfers in with a phenomenal 2022 track record from South Carolina. Injury issues kept him from reaching his potential last season and from being a full participant in fall camp. If he’s healthy, he should get a lot of looks from Dart this season.

Kiffin has a lot of talented pass catchers, so I wouldn’t expect either to get a consistent heavy volume of targets.

TOP 3 P4 ADP TEs

Oronde Gadsden, Brant Kuithe, and Luke Lachey all came off major injuries last season. Let someone else waste high draft capital on them and target high-floor guys like Briningstool, Prieskorn, Loveland, Maryland, and Warren in the later rounds. 

Injury Related Movers

Jaydon Blue – Texas RB

With CJ Baxter out for the season, I would move Blue all the way up to a 2nd or 3rd round value. You should see heavy volume with him.

Chris Bell/Ja’Corey Brooks – Louisville WRs

With Caulin Lacy out several weeks with a broken collarbone injury, look for both Chris Bell and Ja’Corey Brooks to move up in value. Personally, I like Chris Bell the most. Especially since Brohm tends to favor the outside receivers in his system.

Demi Sumo – UK RB

It looks like Sumo is favored to take #1 snaps after Chip Trayanum suffered a broken hand that will keep him out for about a month.